Dow Theory Update for March 19: In spite of all noise no change in trends

 Gold again up. Silver does not confirm.

Special note on GLD

GLD puked yesterday 13.55 tonnes or 1.09%, which is a massive “puke." That such a puke occurs within a day when gold was clearly up is even more bullish as it denotes that higher prices don’t quench the thirst for physical gold (which can be had by redeeming a basket of GLD shares). Once again, I insist that those really interested in understanding GLD “pukes” should read the seminal work produced by Victor the Cleaner.

However, such avidity for physical gold, shows that something is brewing in the gold market. We are living exceptional and turbulent times, and we shouldn’t take anything for granted, as recent events in Cyprus have painfully shown.

Stocks

The Industrials closed up. The SPY and Transports closed down. The primary trend and secondary trend remain bullish.

Today’s volume was higher than yesterday. This has a bearish connotation since declining prices were confirmed by expanding volume. The overall picture of volume remains bearish, which suggest that the odds favor the development of a secondary reaction. At the very least the reversal bar we had a couple of trading days ago, suggests that it is likely that we see some more decline ahead. If you look at the chart below, you can see that the previous reversal bar clearly had some downside follow-up (even though it didn't materialize into a full-blown secondary reaction).

The reversal bar of last Friday is having follow-up

Gold and silver

GLD closed up. SLV closed down. From a Dow Theory perspective, nothing has changed (all my GLD inventory talk notwithstanding) and, hence, the primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

GDX closed up. SIL closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

As you can see investing along the primary trend of the market can be boring (but fruitful long term) as many days pass by without a change in trends. However, such lack of action gives us time to study the markets and become better investors.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 

Data for March 19, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.06
Last close		03/19/2013	154.61
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
5.85%	13.94%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.64%	26.99%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6.72%	12.64%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist.