Dow Theory Update for March 8: Stocks make higher highs

  Gold and silver up

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary in this blog.

Stocks

The SPY, Industrials and Transports made higher highs. Thus, the primary bull market has been re-confirmed once again. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.

Today’s volume receded as stock prices advanced, which has a bearish connotation. My overall assessment of volume continues bearish short term for the reasons given here. However, as I have explained countless times in this Dow Theory blog, volume merely serves to qualify trends. In other words, trends are made by prices and you can go broke because your stock goes down, even if it declines on negligible volume. Thus, volume merely increases o decreases the odds of a trend (or reversal) to occur. Thus, a bullish trend confirmed by volume has better odds of continuing than one not supported by volume. Nevertheless, the final verdict is given by price action.

 Here you have an updated chart reflecting price and volume patterns. 

Volume still bearish short term

 

Gold and silver

GLD lost yesterday, March 7, almost two tonnes. The bleeding continues, albeit more mitigated.

GLD and SLV closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

The gold and silver miners ETFs (GDX and SIL) closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 

Data for March 8, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.06
Last close		03/08/2013	155.43
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
6.42%	14.54%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.64%	26.99%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6.72%	12.64%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist