Dow Theory Update for May 16: Gold and silver still flirting with danger

 Stocks closed down.

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory analysis for today.

Stocks

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.

Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s, which makes it a bullish volume day as declining prices were no joined by expanding volume. The overall patter of volume remains neutral.

Gold and Silver

GLD closed down. SLV up. Gold hasn’t hitherto confirmed SLV lower lows. A reconfirmation of the primary bear market requires that GLD violate the 05/15/2013 lows. In the meantime, the primary trend is bearish and the secondary trend bullish.

GDX closed up and SIL unchanged. The primary and secondary trend is clearly bearish.

All in all, both the miners and the precious metals are flirting with the last recorded lows. This is certainly not bullish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.

 

Data for May 16, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.06
Last close		05/16/2013	165.34
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
13.20%	21.84%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.64%	26.99%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6.72%	12.64%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist