Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Dow Theory Update for May 15: Gold and silver close to reconfirming primary bear market



Stocks make higher highs


Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.

Stocks

The SPY, Industrials and Transports made higher highs. The primary and secondary tend is bullish.

Today’s volume was higher than yesterday, which is bullish as higher prices were met by expanding volume.

Gold and silver

GLD and SLV closed down. Silver violated the 04/15/2013 low. However, in spite of its closing down, didn’t violate such low. If this lack of confirmation persist for some days or even weeks it might be indicative of a bottom being made. However, if GLD breaks below the 04/15/2013 lows, the primary bear market will be reconfirmed. 

If GLD breaks below the horizontal red line, the primary bear market will be reconfirmed


Here you have an updated chart that shows the current situation. If the blue horizontal lines are jointly penetrated, a primary bull market will be signaled as explained here. If gold closes below the red horizontal line, the primary bear market will be reconfirmed.


In the meantime the primary trend is bearish and the secondary trend is bullish.

GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETFs, closed down and are very near the primary bear market lows. The primary and secondary trend is bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.

 
Data for May 15, 2013






DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135.7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146.06
Last close
05/15/2013 166.11
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

135.7




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




13.73% 22.41% 7.63%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149.46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160.54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162.6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.39% 7.83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25.63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28.92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29.95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.28% 13.15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL




SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17.08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21.83
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/15/2012 21.87




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0.64% 26.99% 27.81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX




GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39.56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47.77
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low
12/05/2012 45.35




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-6.72% 12.64% 20.75%


Sincerely,


The Dow Theorist

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