Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Dow Theory Update for May 14: Stocks make higher highs



 Gold and silver at crossroads


Stocks

The SPY, Industrials and Transports made higher highs (see chart below). Such higher highs re-confirm the primary bull market in stocks. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.

Be it QE, be it inflation ahead, be it who knows what...higher highs confirm the primary bull market


Today’s volume was higher than yesterday’s, which makes it a bullish volume day. The overall pattern of volume is neutral.

Gold and Silver

GLD and SLV closed down. Accordingly, the pullback whose study was made in this Dow Theory blog here continues. This further clarifies the existence of the setup for either a primary bull market or a re-confirmation of the primary bear market. Gold and silver are at crossroads now. Either they break above the secondary reaction highs thereby flashing a primary bull market signal, or violate the 04/15/2013 lows, thereby re-confirming the primary bear market. It is a really interesting technical formation.


In the meantime, the primary trend is bearish and the secondary trend is bullish.

GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners, closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.

 

Data for May 14, 2013






DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135.7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146.06
Last close
05/14/2013 165.23
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

135.7




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




13.12% 21.76% 7.63%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149.46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160.54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162.6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.39% 7.83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25.63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28.92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29.95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.28% 13.15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17.08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21.83
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/15/2012 21.87




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0.64% 26.99% 27.81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39.56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47.77
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low
12/05/2012 45.35




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-6.72% 12.64% 20.75%


Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

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