Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Dow Theory Update for May 8: Bullish parade. Stocks make higher confirmed highs

Precious metals closed up


Russell is cautiously bullish.

Richard Russell, of the Dow Theory Letters, agrees that technically the primary trend of the market is bullish. So thinks Russell’s new associate Jon Strebler. However, Russell doesn’t like a market levitated by QE, and, accordingly, he prefers to be out of the market sitting tight on gold. Irrespective of one’s personal risk appetite, there seems to be agreement as to the primary bull market in stocks. Such unanimity could be even construed as a contrary indicator. Is a correction at hand?

GLD’s woes.

In FOFOA’s blog, “MatrixSentry”, a commentator who has earned credibility, posted an insightful comment on GLD's inventory decline. It is a must read by anyone interested in getting a grasp of what is happening in the realm of physical gold. You can find the comment on GLD here.

 Stocks

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The primary and secondary trend is bullish.

Today’s volume was higher than yesterday’s, which is bullish as higher prices were met by rising volume. Little by little, as you can see in the chart below, and notwithstanding the latest bearish pivot (more about it here), the pattern of volume is turning neutral.

Volume is turning neutral
  
Gold and Silver

GLD and SLV closed up. The primary trend is bearish, and the secondary trend is bullish.

As to the gold and silver miners ETF, both closed up. The primary and secondary trend is bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.

Data for May 8, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
SPY
Bull market started11/15/2012135.7
Bull market signaled01/02/2013146.06
Last close05/08/2013163.34
Current stop level: Bear mkt low135.7
Unrlzd gain %Tot advance since start bull mktMax Pot Loss %
11.83%20.37%7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
GLD
Bull market started05/16/2012149.46
Bull market signaled08/22/2012160.54
Exit December 2012/20/2012161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low11/02/2012162.6
Realized Loss %Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
SLV
Bull market started06/28/201225.63
Bull market signaled08/22/201228.92
Exit December 2012/20/201229
Current stop level: Sec React low11/02/201229.95
Realized gain %Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
SIL
Bull market started07/24/201217.08
Bull market signaled09/04/201221.83
Exit January 2301/24/201321.69
Current stop level: Sec React low11/15/201221.87
Realized Loss %Tot advance since start bull mktMax Pot Loss %
-0.64%26.99%27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
GDX
Bull market started05/16/201239.56
Bull market signaled09/04/201247.77
Exit January 2301/24/201344.56
Current stop level: Sec React low12/05/201245.35
Realized Loss %Tot advance since start bull mktMax Pot Loss %
-6.72%12.64%20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

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