tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-61347430533614871352024-03-17T23:01:20.858-04:00Dow Theory InvestmentAll about the Dow Theory, market timing, technical analysis and the stock, gold and silver markets. Dow Theory applied for long term investors and tradersThe Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.comBlogger1015125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-56979757858251300502024-03-04T17:26:00.005-05:002024-03-05T17:51:40.509-05:00Dow Theory Update for March 3: Primary bear market for SIL and GDX signaled on 2/28/24.<h3 style="text-align: left;"> Bitcoin soars, gold rallies, but silver and gold and silver miners refuse to confirm</h3>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Overview: </b>Despite the rally that gold has
experienced in the last few days that brought gold to higher highs, the
primary trend remains bearish because silver has refused to confirm.
If/when SLV surpasses its 12/1/23 high, the primary trend would shift to
bullish. As of this writing, SLV has not confirmed. So, the trend
assessment given in <a href="https://thedowtheory.com/gold-and-silver-and-their-new-bear-market-signaled-on-2-13-24/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">this POST</a> has not changed.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Bitcoin (not covered here, as it is reserved for <a href="https://thedowtheory.com/sign-up/" target="_blank">Subscribers</a>) reached
my second price target on 3/4/24. Such a display of strength from
Bitcoin and, to a lesser extent, gold in such a short time has two
implications:</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">A) Either something “systemic” is approaching, in which case, silver,
and the miners should also trend higher soon (and silver confirms
gold’s higher highs). A general “melt-up” scenario.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">B) Or, we are just seeing a blow-off top preceding another pullback.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Since the principle of confirmation has always served me well. I wait
until SLV confirms GLD to consider that the primary trend has shifted
from bearish to bullish. <a href="https://thedowtheory.com/the-principle-of-confirmation-can-save-your-skin-example-1-dow-transportation-breakdown/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">HERE</a> and <a href="https://thedowtheory.com/the-principle-of-confirmation-can-save-your-skin-ii-example-2-ief-breakup-turned-into-a-bull-trap/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">HERE</a> you have two recent examples of how the principle of confirmation “saved my skin”.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">The gold and silver miners ETFs made recently lower lows that also had a bearish implication. More details below.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><b>General Remarks:</b></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://thedowtheory.com/dow-theory-update-for-october-2-why-i-favor-using-two-alternative-ways-of-appraising-secondary-reactions/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">In this post</a>, I extensively elaborate on the rationale behind employing two alternative definitions to evaluate secondary reactions.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">SIL refers to the Silver Miners ETF. More information about SIL can be found <a href="https://www.etf.com/SIL" rel="noopener" target="_blank">HERE</a>.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">GDX refers to the Gold Miners ETF. More information about GDX can be found <a href="https://www.investing.com/etfs/market-vectors-gold-miners" rel="noopener" target="_blank">HERE</a>.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><u>Clarification</u></b><b>: </b>All references below to days and prices refer to <b><u>trading</u> days </b>and <b><u>closing</u> prices. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><b><u>GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs</u></b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><b>A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. </b></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">The primary trend for GDX and SIL was signaled as bullish on 12/27/23, as I explained <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-28.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">HERE</a>.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Following the 12/27/23 highs, GDX and SIL both GDX and SIL plummeted
sharply. From 1/18/24 to 2/1/24 there was a modest bounce that did not
meet the extent requirement to set up both ETFs for a primary bear
market signal. Absent the setup, a primary bear market signal is given
is the two ETFs jointly break the last recorded primary bear market
lows. Such lows are the 10/04/23 lows.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">On 2/13/24, GDX pierced its 10/4/23 lows, <u>unconfirmed </u>by SIL.
On 2/28/24, SIL violated its 10/4/23 closing lows and confirmed GDX.
Accordingly, on 2/28/24, a primary bear market was signaled.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>The primary and secondary trends are now bearish.</b></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Following the 2/28/24 lows, there has been a rally until 3/4/24. Such
a rally does not fulfill the time requirement for a secondary reaction.
We need at least ten trading days (or slightly less if the rally is
gargantuan). Therefore, the current bounce does not suffice to change
the secondary trend from bearish to bullish.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">So, now we are looking forward to a >= 10-day rally that also meets the <b>extent requirement</b>
to consider the existence of a secondary reaction against the primary
bear market. The extent requirement is based on the volatility of GDX
and SIL and changes slightly every day. Currently, GDX should rally at
least 6% and SIL 6.28%. After such a rally unfolds, a >= 2-day
pullback that also satisfies the extent requirement would set up both
ETFs for a potential primary bull market signal. We are far from that at
this moment.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">The accompanying charts illustrate recent developments. The red lines
denote the 10/4/23 bear market lows that have recently been breached,
while the blue lines represent the last recorded bull market highs,
which currently serve as crucial levels to surpass for a new primary
bull market signal to materialize.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHO1Yhucv0QCeryAQAQfKPWEsMKynCrPQG3yLk6HDYxd634pXx8wbj6yswAX9hMfRaDVm80GhlAePdNRk4PymW9yqGTDwfagcJqUbuQ6meRdgmAToSo3UL98GITTVphhK5r-JpOws1enpItaid_Lsp78ox4pLn6TmIGKBsSknDot-39-twXP7siLCDiG4S/s1920/172%20SIL%20and%20GDX%20chart%20dow%20theory%20March%204%202024%20EDITED.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1920" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHO1Yhucv0QCeryAQAQfKPWEsMKynCrPQG3yLk6HDYxd634pXx8wbj6yswAX9hMfRaDVm80GhlAePdNRk4PymW9yqGTDwfagcJqUbuQ6meRdgmAToSo3UL98GITTVphhK5r-JpOws1enpItaid_Lsp78ox4pLn6TmIGKBsSknDot-39-twXP7siLCDiG4S/w640-h276/172%20SIL%20and%20GDX%20chart%20dow%20theory%20March%204%202024%20EDITED.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><b>B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional
interpretation demanding at least three weeks of movement to declare a
secondary reaction. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">I explained<a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-28.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank"> <u>HERE</u></a>, the primary trend was signaled as bullish on 12/27/23.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">In this specific instance, the trend appraisal using the “long-term”
version of the Dow Theory yields the same results as the “short-term”
one. So, what I explained above applies fully to this section. <b>The primary and secondary trends are bearish</b>.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Sincerely,</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Manuel Blay</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Editor of <a href="https://thedowtheory.com/">thedowtheory.com</a></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></p>The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-31224459262069001462024-02-15T17:35:00.000-05:002024-02-15T17:35:41.370-05:00Unforeseen CPI Jump Rattles Markets: A Deep Dive into Gold and Silver and their New Bear market signaled on 2/13/24<p style="text-align: left;"> </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><strong>Overview: </strong>On 2/13/24, January’s Consumer Price Index
(CPI) exceeded expectations, triggering significant market upheaval.
The Headline CPI saw a 0.3% month-over-month increase compared to the
previous month’s 0.2% rise.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">This unexpected development led to widespread turmoil:</span></p>
<ul style="text-align: justify;"><li><span style="font-size: large;">Stocks plummeted.</span></li><li><span style="font-size: large;">Precious metals and their mining stocks declined.</span></li><li><span style="font-size: large;">U.S. treasuries experienced substantial drops amid concerns over
higher inflation and the likelihood of delayed interest rate cuts.</span></li></ul>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">While U.S. stock indexes are far from a bear market, the adverse news
on February 13th, 2024, pushed precious metals and bonds into new bear
market territory.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">In my 2/6/24 post titled “<a href="https://thedowtheory.com/golds-downturn-dow-theory-signals-market-risk-ahead/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Gold’s downturn? Dow Theory Signals Market Risks Ahea</a>d”
I accurately alerted of a potential shift to a bearish trend in
precious metals. As is often the case, price movements tend to precede
news, so weakness was already evident before the bad CPI print.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">The precious metals market is currently experiencing a <strong>significant bearish bias</strong>.
The long-term assessment of the Dow Theory remains bearish, and SLV’s
non-confirmation of GLD’s higher highs on December 27th, 2023, is a
yellow flag (or even a reddish one). Furthermore, the short-term
assessment of the Dow Theory (see below) shifted to bearish on February
13th, 2023, which adds more weight to the bearish case.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><strong>General Remarks:</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://thedowtheory.com/dow-theory-update-for-october-2-why-i-favor-using-two-alternative-ways-of-appraising-secondary-reactions/">In this post</a>, I extensively elaborate on the rationale behind employing two alternative definitions to evaluate secondary reactions.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">GLD refers to the SPDR® Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD®). More information about GLD can be found <a href="https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">HERE</a>.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">SLV refers to the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV®). More information about SLV can be found <a href="https://www.etf.com/SLV" rel="noopener" target="_blank">HERE</a>.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><strong>A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks and 1/3 retracement dogma. </strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">As I explained in <a href="https://thedowtheory.com/primary-bull-market-for-gold-and-silver-signaled-on-11-27-23/">this post</a>, the primary trend was signaled as bullish on 11/27/23.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Following a pullback (secondary reaction against the bullish trend),
both TLT and IEF experienced a bounce, setting up both ETFs for a
potential primary bear market. You can find detailed explanations and
charts <a href="https://thedowtheory.com/golds-downturn-dow-theory-signals-market-risk-ahead/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">HERE</a>.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">The table below furnishes relevant information:</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZQSvc6Boi5FoQ5Pa_1u3czfhOG_QI00ZtxFEhF8D_wDFJpbSX_r-sPQfk1L4mw8x6jrJo4vSdBrplE4vOICqk2dEX1Yy4eprDmjT0FpQKngKj1zOUzsQR2F_Kyk80bOtAX2DVW5Q7ACGrAcV1FhH2AmgD87qjcyVOK9AIi7TJpwjeCdNDDLw0ZP7uWFDI/s799/159%20TABLE%20GLD%20SLV%20dow%20theory%20short%20term%20Feb%2015%202024.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="323" data-original-width="799" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZQSvc6Boi5FoQ5Pa_1u3czfhOG_QI00ZtxFEhF8D_wDFJpbSX_r-sPQfk1L4mw8x6jrJo4vSdBrplE4vOICqk2dEX1Yy4eprDmjT0FpQKngKj1zOUzsQR2F_Kyk80bOtAX2DVW5Q7ACGrAcV1FhH2AmgD87qjcyVOK9AIi7TJpwjeCdNDDLw0ZP7uWFDI/w640-h258/159%20TABLE%20GLD%20SLV%20dow%20theory%20short%20term%20Feb%2015%202024.JPG" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">On 2/13/24, GLD and SLV broke down below their 2/1/24 pullback lows
(Step #2). Since it was a confirmed breakdown, a primary bear market was
signaled according to the Dow Theory.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Check out the chart below for a visual walkthrough of the recent
price action. The brown rectangles highlight the secondary reaction
(Step #2), the blue rectangles showcase the rally (Step #3) originating
from the secondary reaction lows that set up both ETFs for a potential
bear market signal, and the red horizontal lines pinpoint the pullback
lows whose joint violation signaled the new “bear market.” The blue
horizontal lines highlight the last recorded primary bull market highs
(Step #1), whose breakup would signal a new primary bull market.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5_3sbPRr238idnTtbX-S_Pjd0klV9xWiUWu1x0ak5eg2Jwo4sJL-N9u_cSr9xgR6YoPkSe46ZS_bpjlekNdkt1C5LS1vAifMkmqFinQn4MB01wMgSB9O2uELRjDe3LdzK7knXkfl4h8fy3BkxggudZv10jnHCrJHxG_EXyoJrjg99yJAYSNdr0hzMZEbG/s1920/169%20Chart%20short%20term%20Dow%20Theory%20GLD%20and%20SLV%20February%2015%202024%20edited.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="782" data-original-width="1920" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5_3sbPRr238idnTtbX-S_Pjd0klV9xWiUWu1x0ak5eg2Jwo4sJL-N9u_cSr9xgR6YoPkSe46ZS_bpjlekNdkt1C5LS1vAifMkmqFinQn4MB01wMgSB9O2uELRjDe3LdzK7knXkfl4h8fy3BkxggudZv10jnHCrJHxG_EXyoJrjg99yJAYSNdr0hzMZEbG/w640-h260/169%20Chart%20short%20term%20Dow%20Theory%20GLD%20and%20SLV%20February%2015%202024%20edited.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Thus, both the <strong>primary and secondary trends are currently bearish.</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><strong>B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional
interpretation demanding more than three weeks and 1/3 confirmed
retracement to declare a secondary reaction.</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">As I explained <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/06/dow-theory-update-for-june-21-primary.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">HERE</a>, the primary trend was signaled as bearish on 6/21/23.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Following the bear market lows on 10/5/23, there was a strong bounce
until 12/1/23, which qualifies as a secondary reaction against the bear
market given that both the time (at least 15 days confirmed) and extent
requirements were met.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">The extent requirement demands that both ETFs rally more than the
Volatility-Adjusted Minimum Movement (VAMM). You can get more
information about the VAMM <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2014/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-11.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">HERE</a>.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">After the bounce highs (Step #2), a pullback ensued until 12/12/23.
This pullback exceeding the VAMM and lasting >=2 days set up GLD and
SLV for a potential primary bull market signal. If GLD and SLV jointly
broke topside their 12/1/23 closing highs, a primary bull market would
be signaled. On 12/27/23, GLD surpassed its 12/1/23 secondary reaction
highs (Step #2), <u>unconfirmed</u> by SLV. One of the Dow Theory tenets
is that we need confirmation for a signal to be given. In the absence
of confirmation, no new primary bull market was signaled.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">The table below shows the key dates and prices:</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfD5NGmizf_GOegjCy66qj6Q_dL8WUP4JeUrxnWwcRP5eF6kSK19NN9Zu5iFvNX3y4sjeGuB8yJkFaSPJfXJxC4nosqsZOx7tmvmy-Yhn4q_pPY5sCtu3o51DU_7OvUDkfelxhFX6uhluTwTpjHmiHp4N9gKfEEmQrxDLTYDGPVFc5CIW_czMeK9riNQ-y/s798/159%20TABLE%20GLD%20SLV%20dow%20theory%20long%20%20term%20Feb%2015%202024.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="310" data-original-width="798" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfD5NGmizf_GOegjCy66qj6Q_dL8WUP4JeUrxnWwcRP5eF6kSK19NN9Zu5iFvNX3y4sjeGuB8yJkFaSPJfXJxC4nosqsZOx7tmvmy-Yhn4q_pPY5sCtu3o51DU_7OvUDkfelxhFX6uhluTwTpjHmiHp4N9gKfEEmQrxDLTYDGPVFc5CIW_czMeK9riNQ-y/w640-h248/159%20TABLE%20GLD%20SLV%20dow%20theory%20long%20%20term%20Feb%2015%202024.JPG" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">So, now we have the following options:</span></p>
<ol style="text-align: justify;"><li><span style="font-size: large;">Should SLV experience a rally and surpass its closing highs from
December 1st, 2023, it would provide confirmation, signaling a new
primary bull market. However, considering the absence of sudden price
surges, this possibility seems improbable in the foreseeable days or
weeks.</span></li><li><span style="font-size: large;">Alternatively, if GLD and SLV continue to decline and breach their
bear market lows from October 5th, 2023, three outcomes would arise:</span></li></ol>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">a) The secondary reaction against the bear market would be canceled.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">b) The setup for a <em>potential</em> primary bull market would be nullified, too.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">c) The primary bear market would be confirmed.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Explore the chart below for a visual representation of recent price
movements. The blue rectangles denote the secondary reaction (Step #2)
originating from the October 5th, 2023, bear market lows (Step #1). The
brown rectangles indicate the pullback (Step #3) after the latest market
highs (Step #2). The secondary reaction highs (Step #2) are highlighted
by blue horizontal lines, whose confirmed breach would signal a new
primary bull market (currently highly improbable). Lastly, the red
horizontal lines represent the October 5th, 2023, bear market lows (Step
#1), whose confirmed penetration would reconfirm the ongoing bear
market. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghBeSCV4gkLgucrqd6dEk9q6ciXhwTfm2u6Fa1FZWj6HwN0G0t8MXP12rEiinc_IMMbc44MAgOeU7iIgDqsW5d5VUdXi-aK-cN0ApYlAq-wLgfOIyVhaMUS-q0d9wc2-qC1Ma5GJRE28xM5C75xMxGuTOL1ZHJlACPI9OPH-XfzTi6KB2VBIjUzrXQrPhz/s1920/170%20Chart%20long%20term%20Dow%20Theory%20GLD%20and%20SLV%20February%2015%202024%20edited%20ter.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="901" data-original-width="1920" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghBeSCV4gkLgucrqd6dEk9q6ciXhwTfm2u6Fa1FZWj6HwN0G0t8MXP12rEiinc_IMMbc44MAgOeU7iIgDqsW5d5VUdXi-aK-cN0ApYlAq-wLgfOIyVhaMUS-q0d9wc2-qC1Ma5GJRE28xM5C75xMxGuTOL1ZHJlACPI9OPH-XfzTi6KB2VBIjUzrXQrPhz/w640-h300/170%20Chart%20long%20term%20Dow%20Theory%20GLD%20and%20SLV%20February%2015%202024%20edited%20ter.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Sincerely,</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Manuel Blay</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Editor of <a href="https://thedowtheory.com">thedowtheory.com</a></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></p>The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-43754190599290318652024-02-14T19:56:00.001-05:002024-02-14T19:56:38.465-05:00Unforeseen CPI Jump Rattles Markets: A Deep Dive into U.S.Treasuries and their new Bear market signaled on 2/13/24<h3 style="text-align: left;">Stocks Plunge but bull market unchanged, and precious metals in a Bear market now: Market Reactions to CPI Surprise <br /></h3><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Overview: </b>Yesterday (2/13/24) morning’s Consumer Price Index
(CPI) inflation report surpassed expectations, triggering significant
market upheaval. The Headline CPI saw a 0.3% month-over-month increase
compared to the previous month’s 0.2% rise. This unexpected development
led to widespread turmoil: stocks plummeted, precious metals and their
mining stocks declined, and U.S. treasuries experienced substantial
drops amid concerns over higher inflation and the likelihood of delayed
interest rate cuts.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">In my post dated 2/2/24, titled “<a href="https://thedowtheory.com/tlt-and-ief-watch-are-bonds-on-the-brink-of-a-primary-bear-market-signal/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">TLT and IEF Watch: Are Bonds on the Brink of a Primary Bear Market Signal?</a>”
I accurately predicted a potential shift to a bearish trend in bonds.
As is often the case, price movements tend to precede news.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">This post delves into the action of U.S. treasuries, as represented
by the TLT and IEF ETFs. Unlike US stocks, the 2/13/24 drop ushered U.S.
bonds into a new bear market. For the U.S. stock market, and
notwithstanding the most recent drop, the primary and secondary trend is
bullish. You can read the most recent Dow Theory trend appraisal for
the U.S. stocks in my post “<a href="https://thedowtheory.com/critical-stock-market-update-dow-theory-bull-market-on-2-8-24/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Critical Stock Market Update: The classical Dow Theory signaled a bull market on 2/8/24</a>“. As an aside, <span data-preserver-spaces="true">the
Dow Theory for the 21st Century signaled a BUY much earlier, capturing
substantial gains along the way. You can read more about the net
superiority of the DT21C vs. the Dow Theory in <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/p/face-off-schannep-versus-classical-dow.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">this article.</a></span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Stay tuned for another post, in which I will discuss the situation in
the gold and silver markets, both of which also turned bearish on
2/13/24.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><strong><span>General Remarks:</span></strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span><a href="https://thedowtheory.com/dow-theory-update-for-october-2-why-i-favor-using-two-alternative-ways-of-appraising-secondary-reactions/">In this post</a>, I extensively elaborate on the rationale behind employing two alternative definitions to evaluate secondary reactions.</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>TLT refers to the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF. You can find more information about it <a href="https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf" rel="noopener" target="_blank">here</a></span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>IEF refers to the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF. You can find more information about it <a href="https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf" rel="noopener" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>TLT
tracks longer-term US bonds, while IEF tracks intermediate-term US
bonds. A bull market in bonds signifies lower interest rates, whereas a
bear market in bonds indicates higher interest rates.</span></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><strong>A)</strong> <strong>Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks and 1/3 retracement dogma. </strong></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">As I explained in <a href="https://thedowtheory.com/u-s-bonds-are-in-a-new-primary-bull-market/">this post</a>, the primary trend was signaled as bullish on 12/13/23.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Following a pullback (secondary reaction against the bullish trend),
both TLT and IEF experienced a bounce, setting up both ETFs for a
potential primary bear market. You can find detailed explanations and
charts<a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2024/02/dow-theory-update-for-february-2-tlt.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank"> here</a>.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">The table below furnishes relevant information</span>:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9wFV46tpZ-QMjBeP4k5UMgkB5tZjn3mIQyZ3y1zDLbYLrMv8_74XhDOtfyUvGztSOvkGe_DmgdCOjhRhjo9RvqMiNpAh9f-CFVREALp7gIXXNQoxZ8mG-F5lynhntmxWZU4FWjU75NNPhpeKO1H2iBPScvg83FFrjtvVMNxM6ep433gWuPGSnkS9mfBM5/s711/158%20table%20TLT%20IEF%20dow%20%20theory%20short%20term%20Feb%2014%202024.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="323" data-original-width="711" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9wFV46tpZ-QMjBeP4k5UMgkB5tZjn3mIQyZ3y1zDLbYLrMv8_74XhDOtfyUvGztSOvkGe_DmgdCOjhRhjo9RvqMiNpAh9f-CFVREALp7gIXXNQoxZ8mG-F5lynhntmxWZU4FWjU75NNPhpeKO1H2iBPScvg83FFrjtvVMNxM6ep433gWuPGSnkS9mfBM5/w640-h290/158%20table%20TLT%20IEF%20dow%20%20theory%20short%20term%20Feb%2014%202024.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><span>On February 5th, 2024, IEF broke below its January 24th, 2024 closing lows (Step #2) <u>without confirmation</u>
from TLT. However, on February 13th, 2024, TLT breached these lows,
confirming the breakdown and thus signaling a new primary bear market
according to the Dow Theory.</span></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>Check
out the chart below for a visual walkthrough of the recent price action.
The brown rectangles highlight the secondary reaction (Step #2), the
blue rectangles showcase the rally (Step #3) originating from the
secondary reaction lows that set up both ETFs for a potential bear
market signal, and the red horizontal lines pinpoint the pullback lows
whose joint violation signaled the new “bear market.” The blue
horizontal lines highlight the last recorded primary bull market highs
(Step #1) whose breakup would signal a new primary bull market.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBsskXSAqIVm6ZhVYAGaZAOt9WmU3TLhIzE6GkbMP_jLSUGQth5Jcn1JtU2AgSuKznByqh52K6zHzncWoEbyElo2ZiOUwkqtUaiGC5gvgipmxYawd-ma_ROxunktg5m4y2LYUCsb5BNxKTVL0NbL6dXZxpeiqBV0GYAzA8EgduUuiAcwSKd7HH7j011iWu/s1920/157%20charts%20TLT%20IEF%20Dow%20theory%20short%20term%20new%20bear%20market%20Feb%2014%202024%20edited.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="901" data-original-width="1920" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBsskXSAqIVm6ZhVYAGaZAOt9WmU3TLhIzE6GkbMP_jLSUGQth5Jcn1JtU2AgSuKznByqh52K6zHzncWoEbyElo2ZiOUwkqtUaiGC5gvgipmxYawd-ma_ROxunktg5m4y2LYUCsb5BNxKTVL0NbL6dXZxpeiqBV0GYAzA8EgduUuiAcwSKd7HH7j011iWu/w640-h300/157%20charts%20TLT%20IEF%20Dow%20theory%20short%20term%20new%20bear%20market%20Feb%2014%202024%20edited.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Thus, both the <strong>primary and secondary trends are currently bearish.</strong></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><strong>B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional
interpretation demanding more than three weeks and 1/3 confirmed
retracement to declare a secondary reaction.</strong></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">As detailed in <a href="https://thedowtheory.com/u-s-bonds-are-in-a-new-primary-bull-market/">this post</a>, the primary trend was signaled as bullish on 12/13/23.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">In this specific instance, the price action explained above fully
applies to the “longer-term” rendering of the Dow Theory. In other
words, look at the table and charts above, as they fully explain what
happened when we take a longer view. Therefore,<strong> the primary and the secondary trend </strong><strong>are bearish.</strong></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Sincerely,</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Manuel Blay</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Editor of <a href="https://thedowtheory.com">thedowtheory.com</a></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"> </span> <br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span> </span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></p>The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-28705914274093115652024-02-13T18:43:00.000-05:002024-02-13T18:43:34.973-05:00Critical Stock Market Update: The classical Dow Theory signaled a bull market on 2/8/24<p> </p><h3>Reminder: The Dow Theory for the 21st Century provides even more precise timing for the stock market</h3>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span data-preserver-spaces="true">I will explain the latest “classical” Dow Theory buy signal in this post. </span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span data-preserver-spaces="true">I must state that I don’t trade
this kind of Dow Theory, despite its good record of outperformance and
drawdown reduction vs. Buy and Hold. Why? A much-improved version of the
Dow Theory named the Dow Theory for the 21st Century (DT21C), was
created two decades ago by Jack Schannep and delivers even greater
outperformance and drawdown reduction. The DT21C has a record starting
in 1953 and has been traded in real portfolios since its creation. So,
we are talking of a real improvement over the original Dow Theory that
has successfully been traded in the markets for many years. For example,
the Dow Theory for the 21st Century signaled a BUY much earlier,
capturing substantial gains along the way. You can read more about the
net superiority of the DT21C vs. the Dow Theory in <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/p/face-off-schannep-versus-classical-dow.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">this article.</a></span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span data-preserver-spaces="true">You can find the original Dow Theory record in these links and compare it with the DT21C record.</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://thedowtheory.com/resources/traditional-dow-theory/complete-dow-theory-record/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">https://thedowtheory.com/resources/traditional-dow-theory/complete-dow-theory-record/</a></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://thedowtheory.com/indicators/dow-theory-for-the-21st-century/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">https://thedowtheory.com/indicators/dow-theory-for-the-21st-century/</a></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">That being said, keeping an eye on the classical Dow Theory is good.
While inferior to the DT21C, it is still much better than most
trend-following systems out there.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span data-preserver-spaces="true">So, let’s examine the latest Dow Theory signal.</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span data-preserver-spaces="true">The primary trend turned bearish
after the 8/1/23 and 7/28/23 top (Dow Industrials and Transportation,
respectively). Following the 10/3/23 and 10/5/23 lows top (Dow
Industrials and Transportation, respectively), there was a bounce until
1/2/24 and 12/19/23 (Dow Industrials and Transportation, respectively),
thus lasting 44 trading days for the Industrials and 36 days for the
Transportation. The pullback that set up both Indexes for a primary bear
market signal lasted until 1/17/24. On 1/19/24, the Dow Industrials
surpassed its 1/2/24 highs <u>unconfirmed </u>by the Transportation.</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span data-preserver-spaces="true">The Dow Theory is based on the
principle of confirmation. As Robert Rhea put it, the movement of one
index unconfirmed by the other is likely deceptive. Hence, if one index
is trending up but the other is either going down or not going up enough
to surpass previous highs, this lack of confirmation negates any new
bull market.</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span data-preserver-spaces="true">Finally, on 2/8/24, the Dow
Transportation broke above its 12/19/23 closing highs, confirming the
Dow Industrials and triggering the new primary bull market signal. </span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">However, Dow Theorist Rhea also wrote that belated confirmations
carry less weight than earlier ones. So, I feel that this new bull
market signal is a “weak” one and I would not be surprised to see
weakness in the next two months.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Confirming technical weakness, the inflation report for January,
published on 2/13/24, which exceeded expectations, caused a tumult in
financial markets and disrupted investors’ predictions regarding the
timing and magnitude of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal
Reserve. The market was priced to perfection, and higher-for-longer
interest rates may cause a painful correction in the stock market.
However, we should not underestimate the power of the primary trend.
Now, it is unambiguously bullish, so I don’t expect a bear market, but
just a correction that may last a couple of months.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">The table below give you all the relevant dates and prices:</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhvYTBrpLiWFucnrxjkJ_rWiUgyX5yhIh0nQ_AO6LkFv_9Z4PnA6pMfrW0TLULYGs-PKwXiUQKPYa867WaAUaCacAnPa6B8ECfvO88U_mO6_RCPrNN-NsAxbvFEvJiY4z5PZCyCynlDQSiLIatTKtyPC37a8JmuU8KEUiAp3sf1dMkmUYiJihQxKkXtKyn/s801/156%20original%20Dow%20Theory%20table%20new%20primary%20bull%20market%20February%208%202024.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="269" data-original-width="801" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhvYTBrpLiWFucnrxjkJ_rWiUgyX5yhIh0nQ_AO6LkFv_9Z4PnA6pMfrW0TLULYGs-PKwXiUQKPYa867WaAUaCacAnPa6B8ECfvO88U_mO6_RCPrNN-NsAxbvFEvJiY4z5PZCyCynlDQSiLIatTKtyPC37a8JmuU8KEUiAp3sf1dMkmUYiJihQxKkXtKyn/w640-h214/156%20original%20Dow%20Theory%20table%20new%20primary%20bull%20market%20February%208%202024.JPG" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Once in a bullish phase, our focus shifts to monitoring price levels
that could indicate the start of a new primary bear market. At the time
of writing, a joint penetration of the 10/27/23 market lows (Step #1 in
the above Table) would change the primary trend from bullish to bearish.
While this outcome seems unlikely at present, it warrants continuous
observation. The more probable scenario is that following the current
highs (or potential higher highs), a pullback will occur, with these
pullback lows serving as the next stop-loss level. However, it’s
important not to rush and exercise patience, allowing price action to
guide us in determining the next stop-loss level.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">The charts below depict the latest price movements. The upper chart
illustrates the Dow Industrials, while the lower one represents the Dow
Transportation. Highlighted by blue rectangles are the secondary
reactions (bounces), while the red ones indicate pullbacks that
positioned both indexes for a potential primary bull market signal. The
blue horizontal lines mark the bounce highs (Step #2) of DJI and DJT,
representing crucial price levels whose breach was necessary to signal a
new primary bull market. The blue arrows indicate when DJI and DJT
surpassed their respective bounce highs. Conversely, the red horizontal
lines denote the most recent primary bear market lows, the breakdown of
which would signal a primary bear market (an unlikely scenario at
present).</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-5SUDoXY-IutUra9frivNKMTM3WUMNvJYsaLH3QF_kLE2IZcuDFiD9-kPvuqSaMHtADS4OmeYqHERraBOCd2KZrKLgfgbSSxGBC3PKL78BtVFEH5oRnRleFbTAJVwKobS_dk3_Kmqy8DHD74YeuSJYTszsYv-aKcdBP_Er01Lpm511HQxEqz7ldfwt5dV/s1920/155%20Dow%20%20Theory%20original%20Bull%20market%20signal%20February%202024%20edited.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="782" data-original-width="1920" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-5SUDoXY-IutUra9frivNKMTM3WUMNvJYsaLH3QF_kLE2IZcuDFiD9-kPvuqSaMHtADS4OmeYqHERraBOCd2KZrKLgfgbSSxGBC3PKL78BtVFEH5oRnRleFbTAJVwKobS_dk3_Kmqy8DHD74YeuSJYTszsYv-aKcdBP_Er01Lpm511HQxEqz7ldfwt5dV/w640-h260/155%20Dow%20%20Theory%20original%20Bull%20market%20signal%20February%202024%20edited.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Ever wondered about the effectiveness of the <a href="https://thedowtheory.com/indicators/dow-theory-for-the-21st-century/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Dow Theory in the 21st century?</a>
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Our model portfolio, guided by this Composite Indicator, defied
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Sincerely,</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Manuel Blay</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Editor of <a href="https://thedowtheory.com">thedowtheory.com</a></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></p>The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-6066926683259830322024-02-06T19:23:00.000-05:002024-02-06T19:23:05.390-05:00Dow Theory Update for February 6: Gold’s Downturn? Dow Theory Signals Market Risk Ahead<h3 style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Setup for a potential primary bear market for GLD and SLV completed</span></h3><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Mark Hulbert, known for his keen market timing insights on
MarketWatch, recently shared concerns about the longevity of the current
gold bull market. It’s worth noting that excessive bullish sentiment
can sometimes signal a bearish outlook. Check out his <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240205134/golds-rally-has-nearly-run-its-course" rel="noopener" target="_blank">2/5/23 article</a>
for more details. As I will explain in this post Mark Hulbert may be
onto something, as the setup for a potential primeary bear signal for
GLD and SLV has been completed. In this post, we give you the relevant
price levels to monitor whose violation would signal a new bear market.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><strong>General Remarks:</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://thedowtheory.com/dow-theory-update-for-october-2-why-i-favor-using-two-alternative-ways-of-appraising-secondary-reactions/">In this post</a>, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><strong>A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks and 1/3 retracement dogma. </strong><strong> </strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">As I explained in <a href="https://thedowtheory.com/primary-bull-market-for-gold-and-silver-signaled-on-11-27-23/">this post</a>, the primary trend was signaled as bullish on 11/27/23.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Following their respective 12/1/23 (SLV) and 12/27/23 (GLD) highs
(Step #1 in the Table below), the market experienced a pullback until
1/22/24 (SLV) and 1/17/24 (GLD)- Step #2. This pullback met the <strong>time and extent requirements </strong>for
a secondary (bearish) reaction against the primary bullish trend. The
subsequent rally, kickstarting from the Step #2 lows, gained enough
extent by 1/30/24 to set up GLD and SLV for a <em>potential</em> primary bear market signal. This rally persisted until 2/1/24.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">The Table below shows the details:</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjm3XF0N0xpC45Yq3eN3Bs6UqkqZoiEaQZZ-Q2Pxmbl2mkVXRS6Qj935rab9buSlJxvYLYo4tQqylqW0Mo4ln0ugHwI8WnHcZM5vIkME6Jphb_AAM1psQ7PF1c7aBVXbcgOJjeLoPtWu_qKtlgAWXGP7sG-C4-aOTPJ5BXoiraG7OqUjQXSQ7nOYndifqZF/s1018/152%20table%20gold%20and%20silver%20Dow%20Theory%20short%20term%20Feb%206%202024.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="393" data-original-width="1018" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjm3XF0N0xpC45Yq3eN3Bs6UqkqZoiEaQZZ-Q2Pxmbl2mkVXRS6Qj935rab9buSlJxvYLYo4tQqylqW0Mo4ln0ugHwI8WnHcZM5vIkME6Jphb_AAM1psQ7PF1c7aBVXbcgOJjeLoPtWu_qKtlgAWXGP7sG-C4-aOTPJ5BXoiraG7OqUjQXSQ7nOYndifqZF/w640-h248/152%20table%20gold%20and%20silver%20Dow%20Theory%20short%20term%20Feb%206%202024.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /> </span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Therefore,<strong> the primary is bullish, and the secondary trend is bearish.</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">So, now we have the following scenarios:</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">a) If GLD and SLV jointly breach their respective 1/22/24 (SLV) and
1/17/24 (GLD) lows (Step #2), it would signify the onset of a primary
bear market.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">b) On the flip side, if GLD and SLV resume their recent rally (Step
#3) and jointly surpass their 12/1/23 (GLD) and 12/27/23 (SLV) closing
highs (Step #1), it would confirm the continuation of the primary bull
market, rendering the secondary reaction null and void.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Take a look at the chart below to visually follow the recent price
movements. The brown rectangles mark the secondary reaction (Step #2),
while the blue rectangles illustrate the rally (Step #3) that began from
the lows of the secondary reaction. The red horizontal lines indicate
the pullback lows, the breach of which would signal a “bear market. The
blue horizontal lines show the bull market highs (Step #1) to be
surpassed to reconfirm the primary bull market.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9tO4d-fEOszuQbPBu8RAbF-HLD-0WIcciQdpqXvERtWA60TF8NgSHIwKMsrZboyxBYNcXzQAbiRQ1lwV6CA_tsjqHJyHQhd7LqrzF8SBGaHncGJCfr4OYVrO8kqc2x0c02tr3f1w1dQyQ-hQcO8lU-P-T5Mf2JeAI4P96aYxCO5IGezGQxJHDdG9U2c_5/s1900/153%20chart%20gold%20and%20silver%20short%20term%20dow%20theory%20Feb%206%202023%20EDITED.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="836" data-original-width="1900" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9tO4d-fEOszuQbPBu8RAbF-HLD-0WIcciQdpqXvERtWA60TF8NgSHIwKMsrZboyxBYNcXzQAbiRQ1lwV6CA_tsjqHJyHQhd7LqrzF8SBGaHncGJCfr4OYVrO8kqc2x0c02tr3f1w1dQyQ-hQcO8lU-P-T5Mf2JeAI4P96aYxCO5IGezGQxJHDdG9U2c_5/w640-h282/153%20chart%20gold%20and%20silver%20short%20term%20dow%20theory%20Feb%206%202023%20EDITED.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /> </span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><strong>B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional
interpretation demanding more than three weeks and 1/3 confirmed
retracement to declare a secondary reaction.</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">The secondary reaction against the primary bull market shown in the
table above (Step #2) has not reached at least 15 trading days on both
ETFs. Therefore, the extent requirement for a secondary reaction has not
been met yet. Absent a secondary reaction, the most recent rally is
irrelevant. To get a secondary reaction, which is the precondition for a
subsequent setup, we need GLD closing below its 1/17/24 lows, in which
case the total time below its 1/27/23 highs would be >=15 trading
days. Until then, when we take the longer-term view of the Dow Theory,
both the primary and secondary trends remain bullish. <strong> </strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Sincerely,</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Manuel Blay</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Editor of <a href="https://thedowtheory.com">thedowtheory.com</a></span></p>The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-70907083978150028412024-02-02T14:27:00.000-05:002024-02-02T14:27:07.424-05:00Dow Theory Update for February 2: TLT and IEF Watch: Are Bonds on the Brink of a Primary Bear Market Signal?<h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"> Not yet, but the setup for a potential bear market signal in US bonds has been completed.</span></h3>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><strong>General Remarks:</strong></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://thedowtheory.com/dow-theory-update-for-october-2-why-i-favor-using-two-alternative-ways-of-appraising-secondary-reactions/">In this post</a>, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it <a href="https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf" rel="noopener" target="_blank">here</a></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">IEF is the iShares 7-10 years Treasury bond ETF. More about it <a href="https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf" rel="noopener" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Thus, TLT tracks longer-term US bonds, whereas IEF tracks middle-term
US bonds. A bull market in bonds entails lower interest rates. A bear
market in bonds represents higher interest rates.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><strong>A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks and 1/3 retracement dogma. </strong></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">As I explained in <a href="https://thedowtheory.com/u-s-bonds-are-in-a-new-primary-bull-market/">this post</a>, the primary trend was signaled as bullish on 12/13/23.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Following the 12/27/23 highs, the market experienced a pullback
lasting 18 trading days, concluding on 1/24/24. This pullback met the
time and extent requirements for a secondary (bearish) reaction against
the primary bullish trend. The subsequent rally, kickstarting from the
1/24/24 lows, gained enough extent by 1/31/24 to set up TLT and IEF for a
<em>potential</em> primary bear market signal. This rally persisted until 2/1/24, marking a crucial juncture.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">
The Table below shows the details:</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr_bzDVSYgoXzR62SuyAxitM0pI2pso5iq8cjNDQ1SC-cNWnTMKXi65NXz-eq_V6dCBgEgQYw2953-27HRMu8c5eUv9IEPyMgS9el3gDhPeuLY14OZUcF1eJcvZEw8olNUGe4Wyk35rE66JhlInUXQ5AAnKu-JCXhUttTNIotoNe7VEv1dK1SEzILAiShs/s1350/150%20TAble%20prices%20ETFs%20TLT%20and%20IEF%20DOW%20THEORY%20SHORT%20TERM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="659" data-original-width="1350" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr_bzDVSYgoXzR62SuyAxitM0pI2pso5iq8cjNDQ1SC-cNWnTMKXi65NXz-eq_V6dCBgEgQYw2953-27HRMu8c5eUv9IEPyMgS9el3gDhPeuLY14OZUcF1eJcvZEw8olNUGe4Wyk35rE66JhlInUXQ5AAnKu-JCXhUttTNIotoNe7VEv1dK1SEzILAiShs/w640-h312/150%20TAble%20prices%20ETFs%20TLT%20and%20IEF%20DOW%20THEORY%20SHORT%20TERM.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><br /><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Therefore,<strong> the primary is bullish and the secondary trend is bullish.</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">So, now we have the following scenarios:</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">a) If TLT and IEF jointly breach the 1/24/24 closing lows (refer to
Step #2 in the table above), it would signify the onset of a primary
bear market.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">b) On the flip side, if TLT and IEF resume their recent rally and
jointly surpass their 12/27/23 closing highs, it would confirm the
continuation of the primary bull market, rendering the secondary
reaction null and void.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Check out the chart below for a visual walkthrough of the recent
price action. The brown rectangles highlight the secondary reaction
(Step #2), the blue rectangles showcase the rally (Step #3) originating
from the secondary reaction lows, and the red horizontal lines pinpoint
the pullback lows whose joint violation would scream “bear market.”</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0qVEd_uogxNWJvkJWCJMgSlboSpHecIypS2xwhcFvtL6nVLRglJghyphenhyphenxa7Gllev_7ktVBB5KvhvuDzwEU1ttk3ynlnI6qb-Xyh4SoUVdt-Y0OCDAktTFdEynQA5FrBSj0gBBzxd-8u7wwLPRSWUnqbKR7voTVE1tr2ASUINj5SNH7VOj4OK0nN2PBzTHpL/s1900/151%20chart%20TLT%20and%20IEF%20Dow%20Theory%20long%20and%20short%20term%20EDITED.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="836" data-original-width="1900" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0qVEd_uogxNWJvkJWCJMgSlboSpHecIypS2xwhcFvtL6nVLRglJghyphenhyphenxa7Gllev_7ktVBB5KvhvuDzwEU1ttk3ynlnI6qb-Xyh4SoUVdt-Y0OCDAktTFdEynQA5FrBSj0gBBzxd-8u7wwLPRSWUnqbKR7voTVE1tr2ASUINj5SNH7VOj4OK0nN2PBzTHpL/w640-h282/151%20chart%20TLT%20and%20IEF%20Dow%20Theory%20long%20and%20short%20term%20EDITED.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">As highlighted in previous discussions (<a href="https://thedowtheory.com/bonds-in-crisis-discovering-dow-theorys-healing-touch/">HERE</a> and <a href="https://thedowtheory.com/the-principle-of-confirmation-can-save-your-skin-ii-example-2-ief-breakup-turned-into-a-bull-trap/">HERE</a>),
the Dow Theory accurately tracked the now recently terminated bear
market, shielding those who followed its cues from losses or even raking
in profits for those who shorted.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><strong>B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional
interpretation demanding more than three weeks and 1/3 confirmed
retracement to declare a secondary reaction.</strong></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">As I explained in <a href="https://thedowtheory.com/u-s-bonds-are-in-a-new-primary-bull-market/">this post</a>, the primary trend was signaled as bullish on 12/13/23.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">In this specific instance, the price action that was explained above
fully applies to the “longer-term” rendering of the Dow Theory. In other
words, look at the table and charts above, as they fully explain what
happened when we take a longer view. Therefore,<strong> the primary is bullish, and the secondary trend is bullish.</strong></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Sincerely,</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Manuel Blay</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Editor of <a href="https://thedowtheory.com">thedowtheory.com</a></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></p>The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-62409924869221724612024-01-24T19:29:00.000-05:002024-01-24T19:29:05.326-05:00Dow Theory Update for January 24: Navigating the New Normal: Why Small-Cap Stocks Lag Behind the S&P 500<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"></span></p>
<h3 style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">The Small-Cap
Conundrum: Is the Glory Days of Outperformance Over?</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> <br /></span></h3>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">Over the past five
years, small-cap stocks have consistently underperformed the S&P 500, as
illustrated in the chart below. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnwKN3cvXECf8VM2uE1oUVUOHQyoxmOsqAofOXmS7zBpQLEtGnssX6luJ1hUBRK3E3M712pul3VqyoXevCKmTxcRz7OBvY42p6HgWU0lFKyChN3q7eG-_iz9bSQ7oO0c4oZl5n-B2Qz3UYtmIgJC_N3WtP9OrCagEArJD2XKVT0bGsCv5oGVuIRZA4dNT9/s1049/133%20small%20caps%20vs%20SPY%20January%2024%202024.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="525" data-original-width="1049" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnwKN3cvXECf8VM2uE1oUVUOHQyoxmOsqAofOXmS7zBpQLEtGnssX6luJ1hUBRK3E3M712pul3VqyoXevCKmTxcRz7OBvY42p6HgWU0lFKyChN3q7eG-_iz9bSQ7oO0c4oZl5n-B2Qz3UYtmIgJC_N3WtP9OrCagEArJD2XKVT0bGsCv5oGVuIRZA4dNT9/w640-h320/133%20small%20caps%20vs%20SPY%20January%2024%202024.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">While occasional bursts of outperformance may
occur, I'm skeptical that small caps will revert to their historical pattern of
consistently outshining large caps. <b>The landscape has shifted, and unless we
see a significant change in the globalized economy and a relaxation of
regulatory constraints, it seems the dominance of large caps is entrenched.</b></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">A consequence of this shift is the diminishing share of overall earnings that
small-cap stocks are receiving. In our increasingly winner-takes-all economy,
the advantage tilts toward large-cap stocks, thanks to the powerful
"network effects" from which larger companies stand to gain the most.
If this trend persists, my anticipation is that small caps will find themselves
vying for a shrinking slice of the pie, while their larger counterparts
continue to flourish.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">Mark Hulbert's
article, aptly titled "Why the S&P 500 is destined to keep crushing
the Russell 2000," provides compelling evidence supporting this trend.
Additionally, I'm convinced that the expanding regulatory environment
disproportionately affects small caps, creating an uneven playing field that
gives larger companies an unfair advantage. It's no surprise that small caps
boast a lower Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PER), but the underlying issue is that substantial
challenges faced by smaller companies justify this seemingly cheap valuation. <br /></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><b>What to do? </b></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">By following
trends and focusing on sectors with strong relative strength, we strategically
sidestep the underperformers and align ourselves with the winners. In our
Letter, we set aside pride of opinion, attentively listening to the cues
conveyed by market action. <b><a href="https://thedowtheory.com/sign-up/" target="_blank">Subscribing to our Newsletter</a> dramatically enhances
your odds of becoming a successful investor</b>. Join us on the path to smart
investing! <br /></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>Sincerely,</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>Manuel Blay</span></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><span>Editor of <a href="https://thedowtheory.com">thedowtheory.com</a></span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></p>
The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-23272662428456251332024-01-23T09:40:00.000-05:002024-01-23T09:40:45.791-05:00Dow Theory Update for January 23: How a Falling ERP Isn't the Bearish Sign You Thought It Was<h2 style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Dispelling another investment myth<br /></span></h2><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="break-words
"><span><span dir="ltr">Is a falling Equity/Risk Premium (ERP)
bearish for stocks? No, it isn’t. Jay Kaeppel (<a href="https://lnkd.in/g726bWXY" target="_blank">HERE</a>) debunks another investment
fallacy by showing that a falling ERP does not influence the stock
market. So, a relatively low yield of stocks vs. bonds has zero
predictive power of future performance. Actually, as shown in the screenshot below, the stock market is up an average 9.57% after the ERP crossed below 0.5 (which means stocks "expensive" relative to bonds). </span></span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="break-words
"><span></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFRIMvXpVJS0rGfV6V1pc-0lZ5kuLobIoJBtzsozxsxMF7hvnl48VIVAU5Y1XSSfgSIyTAWQyHrfrY_BZvoFcPuDj3NcU9pZ0X4N8WU_-SeUzC3s2SqT-nOK47MyK2fEpdjAcGGy94rQTiQrMeyaZWu2EHTX_jQ3MqJ9QMTPPpXRKF11Zsy3ajAceRw0uB/s1014/132%20chart%20EQUITY%20RISK%20PREMIUM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="748" data-original-width="1014" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFRIMvXpVJS0rGfV6V1pc-0lZ5kuLobIoJBtzsozxsxMF7hvnl48VIVAU5Y1XSSfgSIyTAWQyHrfrY_BZvoFcPuDj3NcU9pZ0X4N8WU_-SeUzC3s2SqT-nOK47MyK2fEpdjAcGGy94rQTiQrMeyaZWu2EHTX_jQ3MqJ9QMTPPpXRKF11Zsy3ajAceRw0uB/w640-h472/132%20chart%20EQUITY%20RISK%20PREMIUM.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><span dir="ltr"><br /></span></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="line number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="page number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of authorities"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="macro"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="toa heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: 107%;">In trend following, our
trade horizon seldom exceeds a year, making most fundamental measures,
especially the equity risk premium, counterproductive to our performance.
Paying too much attention to them can be detrimental to our portfolios.<strong><span style="font-weight: normal;"> Our Composite Indicator, which is a trend-following
indicator based on <a href="https://thedowtheory.com/indicators/dow-theory-for-the-21st-century/" target="_blank">the Dow Theory for the 21<sup>st</sup> Century</a> and the <a href="https://thedowtheory.com/indicators/blay-timing-indicator/" target="_blank">BlayTiming Indicator</a>, made over +18% in 2023 by ignoring a persistently high ERP during
2023. </span></strong></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: 107%;"><strong><span style="font-weight: normal;">The moral of the story: </span></strong></span><span class="break-words
"><span><span dir="ltr">Focus on price action, and don’t let yourself be
fooled by the noise.</span></span></span><strong><span style="font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> <br /></span></strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>Sincerely,</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>Manuel Blay</span></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><span>Editor of <a href="https://thedowtheory.com">thedowtheory.com</a></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="break-words
"><span><span dir="ltr"> </span></span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="break-words
"><span><span dir="ltr"> <br /></span></span></span></span></p>The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-61117334021706978642024-01-18T17:29:00.001-05:002024-01-18T17:29:36.877-05:00Dow Theory Update for January 18: Is the U.S. stock market overvalued?<h4 style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%;">Perhaps it is, but there aren’t many alternatives left</span></h4>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">I'm not a staunch supporter of fundamentals,
but if there's one I truly endorse, it's economic freedom as a predictor of
future prosperity. The freer the market, the more prosperous the nation, and
its stock market mirrors this.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">Therefore, it doesn't make sense to me to
consider Chinese or European stock markets as bargains just because the U.S.A.
may be overvalued. It might be, and it may correct. However, fundamentally, I
prefer aligning my fortunes with a country that stands out as one of the
cleanest shirts in the laundry basket despite not being flawless in terms of
economic freedom. Cheap is cheap for a good reason. Can a country with
centralized command ever surpass the U.S.A.? I highly doubt it unless the
U.S.A. becomes less free someday. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">The charts below showing the performance of
the S&P500 vs. the Chinese large-cap ETFs tell the whole story. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigY-TFRwqt6x8kDwNksM98LY-uIXTy8oJqGJOD42Icx4ir4LRZCa9TObr0MEeHM6HVjMFAaZlunI-S-zclYV2HDZsI4RvWiWri6-jXslOaAooc-4mUNR43FrSNl4zSOBQI_pIcU9wGGkNBfKHUxuewciLnrSy6N5-z6oCjpih58upO51MOFDS9JTqfPxkc/s1048/130%20USA.%20VS.%20CHINA%20STOCK%20PERFORMANCE%20.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="525" data-original-width="1048" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigY-TFRwqt6x8kDwNksM98LY-uIXTy8oJqGJOD42Icx4ir4LRZCa9TObr0MEeHM6HVjMFAaZlunI-S-zclYV2HDZsI4RvWiWri6-jXslOaAooc-4mUNR43FrSNl4zSOBQI_pIcU9wGGkNBfKHUxuewciLnrSy6N5-z6oCjpih58upO51MOFDS9JTqfPxkc/w640-h320/130%20USA.%20VS.%20CHINA%20STOCK%20PERFORMANCE%20.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">Finally, never forget that valuations have
zero predictive power of the stock market performance one year ahead, and, as
market timers our time horizon for a trade rarely exceeds one year. So, high
valuations for the U.S. stock market are not an excuse for trying to catch
falling knives around the unfree world under the
misguided assumption that they are “cheap”. Don’t forget that trends tend to
persist, and “cheap” will probably become “cheaper”. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span>Sincerely,</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span>Manuel Blay</span></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span>Editor of <a href="https://thedowtheory.com">thedowtheory.com</a></span></span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"></span></p>
The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-31244282800747072242024-01-13T09:37:00.006-05:002024-01-13T18:22:00.288-05:00Dow Theory Update for January 13: Use and misuse of the Dow Theory<h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> Not everything touted as Dow Theory is the real thing.</span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</h3><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">No technical analysis system is more abused than the Dow
Theory. Some individuals peddle their eccentric notions under its banner to
profit from its respectable track record, misrepresenting them as Dow Theory to
make a catchy headline. A recent case involves the confusion between the
"Dogs of the Dow" and the "Dogs of the Dow Theory." It's
important to note that the former is a dividend-focused stock-picking strategy
within the Dow 30, unrelated to the principles of trend following or Dow
Theory. <span style="font-family: times; line-height: 107%;">The "Dogs of the Dow Theory" does not exist. The
screenshot below is from Google Alerts: <br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: times; line-height: 107%;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPmrhu4BOlRrDOPUs61t0ZZrSWT3Pt1BKnv3xacD07cflRJ-THjgwm5nwWLSQThBsWRz_W6jZ45H-ZBZtek0JS0WyrVTonoFmZ9e4uJNLcffEySV2NkaCE8JuuGXmPd1YrD2C_lMnfQIoQMzVBYPGEmJPMoC9AdtlIQgxl2mM3PyD2KbCZl4msyEfY5BPE/s772/129%20dow%20theory%20misused.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="341" data-original-width="772" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPmrhu4BOlRrDOPUs61t0ZZrSWT3Pt1BKnv3xacD07cflRJ-THjgwm5nwWLSQThBsWRz_W6jZ45H-ZBZtek0JS0WyrVTonoFmZ9e4uJNLcffEySV2NkaCE8JuuGXmPd1YrD2C_lMnfQIoQMzVBYPGEmJPMoC9AdtlIQgxl2mM3PyD2KbCZl4msyEfY5BPE/w640-h282/129%20dow%20theory%20misused.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">The Dow Theory has nothing to do with “dogs” or “cats.” <br /></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>Sincerely,</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>Manuel Blay</span></span></p>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span>Editor of </span><a href="https://thedowtheory.com"><span>thedowtheory.com</span></a></span><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></p>
The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-88929256428495928772023-12-28T20:37:00.000-05:002023-12-29T10:18:22.038-05:00Dow Theory Update for December 29: U.S. bonds are in a new primary bull market.<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
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</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">This post was
challenging to compose. Occasionally, trends don't conform to a textbook
pattern, requiring additional interpretation grounded in sound principles. It
won’t be an easy read, but sometimes, sound analysis cannot be compressed into
a couple of lines. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">General
Remarks:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2020/10/dow-theory-update-for-october-2-why-i.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">In this post</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using
two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">TLT is the iShares
20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it </span><a href="https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">here</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">IEF is the iShares
7-10 years Treasury bond ETF. More about it </span><a href="https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">here</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Thus, TLT tracks
longer-term US bonds, whereas IEF tracks middle-term US bonds. A bull market in
bonds entails lower interest rates. A bear market in bonds represents higher
interest rates.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">A) Market
situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks and
1/3 retracement dogma. </span></strong><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">As I explained </span><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2022/09/dow-theory-update-for-september-22.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">HERE</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">, the primary trend was signaled as bearish on
9/20/22.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Following the
10/19/23 bear market lows, a powerful rally ensued, which qualifies as a
secondary (bullish) reaction against the primary bear market, as I explained
<a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/11/dow-theory-update-for-november-20-us.html" target="_blank">HERE</a>.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">The rally has been
so strong that we did not get a >= 2-day pullback with a </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Volatility-Adjusted
Minimum Movement (more explanations about VAMM </span><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2014/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-11.html" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">here</span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">). As the table below shows, the pullback that started after the 12/6/23
closing highs amounted to a meager -1.59% for TLT and 0.08% for IEF, which is
well below the VAMM. In other words, such a pullback does not suffice to set up
bonds for a bull market, implying that a breakup of the 12/6/23 highs (Step #2
in the Table below) which occured on 12/13/23 (Step #4) does not result in a new primary bull market. At least not without further analysis. <br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHiyAeMINi_1AgORecLKFbljRjPGryHjtfvPKKowR-WasNc0ze8j030LbVWmgcPa0XOO6n3_HUqdL2W3OgIjGFnIvenk-E3h4pfrz62hah0yHfMoNjIJ3oAGH6vOU_4_c9m2Gq7Fu7DMyEv4_7CV5hzbPqgJEXRrRnkSvVVKBxuMd6icc3GVuWUYrM10Dg/s1056/125%20SIL%20GDX%20dow%20theory%20short%20term%20December%2028%202023%20TABLE%20final.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="393" data-original-width="1056" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHiyAeMINi_1AgORecLKFbljRjPGryHjtfvPKKowR-WasNc0ze8j030LbVWmgcPa0XOO6n3_HUqdL2W3OgIjGFnIvenk-E3h4pfrz62hah0yHfMoNjIJ3oAGH6vOU_4_c9m2Gq7Fu7DMyEv4_7CV5hzbPqgJEXRrRnkSvVVKBxuMd6icc3GVuWUYrM10Dg/w640-h238/125%20SIL%20GDX%20dow%20theory%20short%20term%20December%2028%202023%20TABLE%20final.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">According to the Dow Theory (Rhea’s book “The Dow
Theory", page 77), the <b>breakup of the highs of the last completed secondary
reaction serves as an alternative way to signal a new bull marke</b>t (and
alternatively, the lows of the last completed secondary reaction serve as the
relevant price to monitor for a new bear market). You can get more information
about this alternative signal <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/02/dow-theory-special-issue-schannep-and-i.html" target="_blank">HERE</a>, <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2021/01/dow-theory-update-for-january-30th.html" target="_blank">HERE</a>, and <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2020/03/dow-theory-special-issue-back-to.html" target="_blank">HERE</a>.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">In this particular
instance, there wasn't a previously completed secondary reaction, as preceding
rallies didn't reach the VAMM. Consequently, the extent requirement for a
secondary reaction was not fulfilled. Without any "<i>highs of the last
completed secondary reaction</i>" to surpass, we needed to explore <b>alternative
ways to signal a new primary bull market</b>.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Enter the <b>Dow Theory concept of “lines”</b> to help us out.
According to Rhea, a line for stocks is a narrow range where stocks fluctuate
less than 5% (from top to bottom) for at least 10-15 trading days (the number
of days is not carved in stone). </span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">As Rhea
noted, the breakout of a line implies a change in the trend of secondary
proportions and occasionally even a new primary bull market. The charts below
show that a line formed on TLT and IEF from 8/10/23 to 9/18/23 meets the
criteria. The green rectangle highlights the line, with the green horizontal
line emphasizing its highs.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">If we observe the charts below, we see that from
8/10/23 to 9/18/23, a line formed on both TLT and IEF. The width of the line
was below the equivalent of 5% in VAMM terms for both. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I highlighted the line with a green rectangle,
and the green horizontal line highlighted the line highs. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9R6aMLa5JUsjMXDR_w3SUGAQXDSjglZrNmfkN1lODdG2Y4GU8EjcFXeyZTQUUuTkJqwOhO33z7kyoFVcmMmXSmbmYZC0I6oi0yfaxLJ5ndMeCHZplJHvPhxQeLfNbqPwLxbNXVW_4SMhZ1PPSl3ebr4Ai6XAPLPPoWbq8u3FOsRURdGbKbM9AHOrbuV8b/s1900/127%20TLT%20IEF%20dow%20theory%20december%2028%202023%20EDITED.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="837" data-original-width="1900" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9R6aMLa5JUsjMXDR_w3SUGAQXDSjglZrNmfkN1lODdG2Y4GU8EjcFXeyZTQUUuTkJqwOhO33z7kyoFVcmMmXSmbmYZC0I6oi0yfaxLJ5ndMeCHZplJHvPhxQeLfNbqPwLxbNXVW_4SMhZ1PPSl3ebr4Ai6XAPLPPoWbq8u3FOsRURdGbKbM9AHOrbuV8b/w640-h282/127%20TLT%20IEF%20dow%20theory%20december%2028%202023%20EDITED.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Considering that
the breakout of a "line" suggests a trend of secondary proportions,
it's reasonable to view these line highs as if they were the highs of a
secondary reaction. Both signify a change in the secondary trend, making it
plausible to consider the breakup of "the last completed/finalized"
line as a signal for a new primary bull market.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Furthermore, an alternative way of analysing the
current market renders the same result. Now follow me. </span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Following the 10/19/23 lows, a secondary bullish
reaction began, establishing an unequivocally bullish secondary trend.
Combining this with the breakup of a line, which also implies a bullish secondary
trend, provides <b>two independent secondary bullish inferences</b>. Could we not
consider this as indicative of a shift to a bullish primary trend? The first
bullish signal is the secondary reaction, and the second is the breakup of a
previously existing line. 1+1=2.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Lastly, the robust
and sustained bullish momentum for both TLT and IEF suggests that we're dealing
with more than just a correction.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Therefore, my conclusion
is that the <span style="background-color: #fcff01;"><b>primary trend has turned bullish too</b>. More exactly, <b>it
shifted to bullish on 12/13/23 when TLT and IEF jointly surpassed the 8/31/23
“line” highs. </b></span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">The Dow Theory has
been tracking accurately the now recently terminated bear market (and avoiding
losses or making profits for those shorting) as explained </span><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/10/bonds-in-crisis-discovering-dow-theorys.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">HERE</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> and </span><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/08/dow-theory-update-for-august-15_15.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">HERE</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">B) Market
situation if one sticks to the traditional interpretation demanding more than
three weeks and 1/3 confirmed retracement to declare a secondary reaction.</span></strong><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">The primary trend
was signaled as bearish on 9/28/21. A more aggressive and legitimate
interpretation would have signaled the bear market on 9/24/21. The explanations
</span><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2021/10/dow-theory-update-for-october-21.html" target="_blank"><strong><span style="color: windowtext; font-size: 13.0pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">here</span></strong></a><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">In this specific
instance, the price action that was explained above fully applies to the “longer-term”
rendering of the Dow Theory. In other words, look at the table and charts
above, as they fully explain what happened when we take a longer view.
Therefore,<strong> the primary and secondary trends are bullish.</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Sincerely,</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Manuel Blay</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Editor of </span><a href="https://thedowtheory.com"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">thedowtheory.com</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> </span></p>
The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-43297525798426547932023-12-28T12:38:00.001-05:002023-12-28T12:38:14.586-05:00 Dow Theory Update for December 28: Primary bull market for SIL and GDX signaled on 12/27/23<p> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The table below summarizes the current
state of the trend for the precious metals and their ETF miners. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv8D6-ClqJ9RuKGT5Xh9vCYnSq-VLtf20ANp041k_z5GA4BA2jr9P2Wt-fUXowj_yPWVA1emUyR5BJ20SDJltUxeUv3iDINCBU0n9cRKp1H8aOB7bFxhFJkoLSrIl3pZb4USzH7i6TP-250A7F8aPLoRyKmOwnIRZrY1RVncwHPiQtj8MKRN7guw6bRQdy/s395/Table%20all%20precious%20metals%20Dow%20Theory%20Jan%2018%202022.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="91" data-original-width="395" height="93" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv8D6-ClqJ9RuKGT5Xh9vCYnSq-VLtf20ANp041k_z5GA4BA2jr9P2Wt-fUXowj_yPWVA1emUyR5BJ20SDJltUxeUv3iDINCBU0n9cRKp1H8aOB7bFxhFJkoLSrIl3pZb4USzH7i6TP-250A7F8aPLoRyKmOwnIRZrY1RVncwHPiQtj8MKRN7guw6bRQdy/w400-h93/Table%20all%20precious%20metals%20Dow%20Theory%20Jan%2018%202022.JPG" width="400" /></a></div> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">There's a buzz in the air
about the USD. Precious metals making notable strides, the Swiss Franc
following suit, and both stocks and crypto appear overextended but with a clear
eagerness to climb further.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">General Remarks:</span></u></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2020/10/dow-theory-update-for-october-2-why-i.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; mso-fareast-language: ES-US;">In this
post</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">, I
thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to
appraise secondary reactions. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES-US; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">GOLD AND
SILVER MINERS ETFs</span></u></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><b><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES-US; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by
the three weeks dogma. </span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The primary trend for GDX
and SIL turned bearish on 6/20/23</span><b><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES-US; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">. </span></b><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES-US; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">You may find an in-depth explanation </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/06/dow-theory-update-for-june-21-primary.html"><span style="mso-fareast-language: ES-US;">HERE</span></a></span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES-US; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Following the 10/4/23 bear market lows,
a rally unfolded that qualified as a secondary reaction, as explained <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/11/dow-theory-update-for-november-30.html" target="_blank">HERE.</a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The setup for a primary bull market
was explained in our <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-12-setup.html">12/11/23
post</a>.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">On 12/19/23, SIL surpassed its secondary
reaction highs (step #2 in the Table below). On 12/27/23, GDX confirmed, thus
triggering a new primary bull market (Step #4).</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq2jdkH2RCvhfyr4q_TwlNg3LxWMRpjW_VhnorC3Sj_xy4oCEm3mdO-Iw7A_3iIdbWDxY5_NpkCma0ffws-htOs-NJ07gJsA_nyhUow-bad-EjBBs5sSTGotq_39tSoCl6rAfk1KrxA3Xxj-dG-3BCbdYZGs6CZBxyafbzRjZ48UJzGFF1Nb5Gpi4B_LcQ/s1025/125%20SIL%20GDX%20dow%20theory%20short%20term%20December%2028%202023%20TABLE.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="381" data-original-width="1025" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq2jdkH2RCvhfyr4q_TwlNg3LxWMRpjW_VhnorC3Sj_xy4oCEm3mdO-Iw7A_3iIdbWDxY5_NpkCma0ffws-htOs-NJ07gJsA_nyhUow-bad-EjBBs5sSTGotq_39tSoCl6rAfk1KrxA3Xxj-dG-3BCbdYZGs6CZBxyafbzRjZ48UJzGFF1Nb5Gpi4B_LcQ/w640-h238/125%20SIL%20GDX%20dow%20theory%20short%20term%20December%2028%202023%20TABLE.jpg" width="640" /></a></div> <br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">So, the primary and secondary trends
are now bullish. Finally, the miners are in sync with the precious metals. Such
multimarket and multi-asset confirmation normally reinforces the bullish case. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The charts below
show the most recent price action. The blue rectangles highlight the secondary
reaction that started off the 10/4/23 bear market lows and ended on 12/1/23. The
brown rectangles indicate the pullback that set up both ETFs for a primary bull
market. The blue horizontal lines mark the 12/1/23 closing highs, which were
the relevant price levels to be broken up. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Additionally, past
rallies amid the bear market, failing to meet the criteria for a secondary
reaction, are represented by grey triangles.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgswpoxE4xkZ9qdnfT_ybIa9nc1sHfv1a5gloMlaqektKlhySmJOAl5TVlPzVYOKO1ap7RGwhbzj9DvdotaHJpCXbq1NkrJGET2qJn3hbZ8yGhIy_aRPxdqFtzqp1KXB_phat9jIjO4AJww8vSrsVBjMWskKrzZvze3g49rb5HpQEa1DZz41ekStuzL7G_/s1900/126%20SIL%20GDX%20dow%20theory%20short%20term%20December%2028%202023%20chart%20edited.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="807" data-original-width="1900" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgswpoxE4xkZ9qdnfT_ybIa9nc1sHfv1a5gloMlaqektKlhySmJOAl5TVlPzVYOKO1ap7RGwhbzj9DvdotaHJpCXbq1NkrJGET2qJn3hbZ8yGhIy_aRPxdqFtzqp1KXB_phat9jIjO4AJww8vSrsVBjMWskKrzZvze3g49rb5HpQEa1DZz41ekStuzL7G_/w640-h272/126%20SIL%20GDX%20dow%20theory%20short%20term%20December%2028%202023%20chart%20edited.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">B) Market
situation if one sticks to the traditional interpretation demanding at least
three weeks of movement to declare a secondary reaction. </span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">I explained <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/06/dow-theory-update-for-june-21-primary.html" target="_blank">HERE</a>, the primary trend was signaled as bearish on 6/20/23.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES-US; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">In this specific instance, the trend appraisal using the “long-term”
version of the Dow Theory yields the same results as the “short-term” one. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">So, what I explained above applies fully to this section. <b>The primary and
secondary trend are bullish</b>.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Sincerely,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Manuel Blay</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Editor of <a href="http://thedowtheory.com/" target="_blank">thedowtheory.com</a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p>
The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-12782222495216194162023-12-27T13:29:00.000-05:002023-12-27T13:29:36.926-05:00Dow Theory Update for December 27: Trend following works with crypto. Interview.<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"> <span class="break-words"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: 107%;">I thank Alexandra Overgaag and David Fernandez for
having me on Thrilld Labs, </span></span>a free and open-access business app that allows Web3 projects,
professional investors, developers, and Web3 service providers from
around the world to find each other and talk synergies in a streamlined
manner.<span class="break-words"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: 107%;"> <br /></span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="break-words"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: 107%;">In the interview, I showed that trend-following can also be
successfully applied to crypto, and a simple trend-following system would have
paralleled BTC’s performance with a huge drawdown reduction and being in the
market only 26.31% of the time. You can watch the video <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQI6PR0ZCnE">HERE</a>. </span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="break-words"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: 107%;"> </span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="break-words"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: 107%;"></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi552pashDiTcT46WY2QIxCFhrGclijLPGXZJD1mmz8vBYsgp3iP7N5eLgfBNDRVQ1dytDcaH6tgRK8St7pmy6xgIUXJ5LzKdkaIkfBs0uKlvChXy6j5NUjRl89apBFggSFdJC0bE2-gI5O7StoJNi8v29o6GMxjogg5QxWZ93d0fa_fFYWjM3eW1BRFbR4/s630/Thrilld%20Labs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="630" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi552pashDiTcT46WY2QIxCFhrGclijLPGXZJD1mmz8vBYsgp3iP7N5eLgfBNDRVQ1dytDcaH6tgRK8St7pmy6xgIUXJ5LzKdkaIkfBs0uKlvChXy6j5NUjRl89apBFggSFdJC0bE2-gI5O7StoJNi8v29o6GMxjogg5QxWZ93d0fa_fFYWjM3eW1BRFbR4/w640-h356/Thrilld%20Labs.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Sincerely,</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Manuel Blay</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Editor of <a href="http://thedowtheory.com/" target="_blank">thedowtheory.com</a></span><p style="text-align: left;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
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<![endif]--></p>The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-402193469856786392023-12-12T10:23:00.004-05:002023-12-12T10:23:44.334-05:00 Dow Theory Update for December 12: Setup for a potential primary bull market in SIL and GDX completed on 12/11/23<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">General Remarks:</span></u></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2020/10/dow-theory-update-for-october-2-why-i.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; mso-fareast-language: ES-US;">In this
post</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">, I
thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to
appraise secondary reactions. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES-US; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">GOLD AND
SILVER MINERS ETFs</span></u></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><b><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES-US; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by
the three weeks dogma. </span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><b><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the
three weeks dogma.</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The primary trend for GDX and SIL turned bearish on 6/20/23</span><b><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES-US; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">. You may find an in-depth explanation </span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/06/dow-theory-update-for-june-21-primary.html"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ES-US;">HERE</span></b></a></span><b><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES-US; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">.</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Following the 10/4/23 bear market lows
a rally unfolded that qualified as a secondary reaction, as explained <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/11/dow-theory-update-for-november-30.html" target="_blank">HERE.</a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">This rally stopped on 12/4/23, and a pullback
followed that lasted >=2 days and exceeded the Volatility-Adjusted Minimum Movement
</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ES;">(more about the VAMM </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2014/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-11.html" target="_blank"><span style="mso-fareast-language: ES;">HERE</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ES;">) on at least one ETF to set up GDX and SIL for a <i>potential</i> primary
bull market signal. We don't require confirmation When dealing with this kind
of “setting up” pullback, as I explained in depth </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/11/dow-theory-special-issue-is-primary.html" target="_blank"><span style="mso-fareast-language: ES;">HERE</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ES;">. Such a pullback set up both ETFs for a <i>potential </i>primary
bull market signal. The Table below displays the relevant dates and prices:</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ES;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1Bq0IjynmVyP21a7hk5Vq7HBOoFvHMFYdei4Q1aDJU8tldUJ-uyXADGOmXsd5HHpYd1d8baRfOuvbE9VLkO0bSXn6HQ3uAasw9UR6zLMndYjcQN4Txj2bz0LtMyDLlJmFu7x_qamiK5Xjb5Z0auqOPLYJxfg2zhq5y3lXfo-wKsiCzqF6z5WM0O9nqMRT/s857/118%20table%20sil%20gdx%20dow%20theory%20dec%2011%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="325" data-original-width="857" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1Bq0IjynmVyP21a7hk5Vq7HBOoFvHMFYdei4Q1aDJU8tldUJ-uyXADGOmXsd5HHpYd1d8baRfOuvbE9VLkO0bSXn6HQ3uAasw9UR6zLMndYjcQN4Txj2bz0LtMyDLlJmFu7x_qamiK5Xjb5Z0auqOPLYJxfg2zhq5y3lXfo-wKsiCzqF6z5WM0O9nqMRT/w640-h242/118%20table%20sil%20gdx%20dow%20theory%20dec%2011%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div> <p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ES;">Therefore, now we
have the <b>following options</b>:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ES;">1. A primary bull
market will be signaled if GDX and SIL jointly surpass their 12/4/23 closing
highs.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ES;">2. If GDX and SIL
continue going down and jointly break down below their 10/4/23 bear market
lows, the primary bull market setup would be canceled, the secondary reaction
terminated, and the primary bear market would be reaffirmed. <br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ES;">The charts below
show the most recent price action. The blue rectangles display the current
(bullish) secondary reaction against the still-existing primary bear market. The
brown rectangles highlight the current pullback. The blue horizontal lines show
the secondary reaction highs (Step #2), whose breakup would signal a new
primary bull market, and the red horizontal lines highlight the bear market
lows (Step #1), whose breakdown would reaffirm the bear market. The grey
rectangles show rallies that did not qualify as a secondary reaction (and hence
are ignored).</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ES;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiabKNEJnSHnrFmHtI4tzVc-D0GnMY_IP-pjAJ_eIIgxOz7nhl1yH5gLKK8doOOmfDXG4eusiu9ZPMCFF_H9-8UF99mLB_ewuuyXeyu8OQr9N_uID-yX9M0GHVTiKWzljye_OmwzjBwBT68rt3gEGSTwiBZGkrVfdZck4OkRNzgZHmwxfhxgpEC3BvFeiOq/s1900/117%20chart%20SIL%20GDX%20DOW%20%20THEORY%20DECEMBER%2011%202023%20edited.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="807" data-original-width="1900" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiabKNEJnSHnrFmHtI4tzVc-D0GnMY_IP-pjAJ_eIIgxOz7nhl1yH5gLKK8doOOmfDXG4eusiu9ZPMCFF_H9-8UF99mLB_ewuuyXeyu8OQr9N_uID-yX9M0GHVTiKWzljye_OmwzjBwBT68rt3gEGSTwiBZGkrVfdZck4OkRNzgZHmwxfhxgpEC3BvFeiOq/w640-h272/117%20chart%20SIL%20GDX%20DOW%20%20THEORY%20DECEMBER%2011%202023%20edited.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /> <br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ES;">So, the primary
trend <b>remains bearish, and the secondary one is bullish</b> (secondary reaction).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ES;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">B) Market situation if one sticks to the
traditional interpretation demanding at least three weeks of movement to
declare a secondary reaction. </span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">I explained <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/06/dow-theory-update-for-june-21-primary.html" target="_blank">HERE</a>, the primary trend was signaled as bearish on 6/20/23.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES-US; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">In this specific instance, the trend appraisal using the “long-term”
version of the Dow Theory yields the same results as the “short-term” one. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">So, what I explained above applies fully to this section. The primary trend
remains bearish and the secondary one is bullish.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Sincerely,</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Manuel Blay</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Editor of <a href="http://thedowtheory.com/" target="_blank">thedowtheory.com</a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-91043469846002340122023-11-30T09:08:00.013-05:002023-11-30T09:24:50.883-05:00Dow Theory Update for November 30: Secondary reaction for SIL and GDX signaled on 11/28/23<p><b><u><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">General Remarks:</span></u></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2020/10/dow-theory-update-for-october-2-why-i.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES-US; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">In this post</span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">, I thoroughly explained
the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary
reactions. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs (GDX & SIL)</span></u></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><b><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the
three weeks dogma.</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="color: black; font-size: 14pt; font-weight: normal; line-height: 107%;">The primary trend for GDX and SIL turned
bearish on 6/20/23</span></b><b><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES-US;">. You may find an in-depth explanation </span></b><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/06/dow-theory-update-for-june-21-primary.html"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES-US;">HERE</span></b></a><b><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES-US;">.</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES-US;">After some </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">rallies that fizzled out before qualifying as a secondary reaction, at long last,
the rally that started off the 4/10/23 bear market lows finally reached the
time and extent requirement for a secondary (bullish) reaction against the
primary bear market. The table below contains the relevant dates and prices: <br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWNtXauFhxtS6a_X0tlY-kVDW7GwANQkUcSw-hli99ng7IQY-qhBSsCWZX4_17bDivHolJ4KyYHRjLz_tu8BoCGsJut9JOaWDPsT4oYw82vNwaVFhIFv2LLTxn4IUbOhqrSHkxzydh3VEPgMkuoWu8Dsyu5114z4_ucjQfi3ovKof2ktteJ-QwxxDAjawW/s857/114%20TABLE%20SECONDARY%20REACTION%20SIL%20GDX%20DOW%20THEORY%20NOV%2030%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="311" data-original-width="857" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWNtXauFhxtS6a_X0tlY-kVDW7GwANQkUcSw-hli99ng7IQY-qhBSsCWZX4_17bDivHolJ4KyYHRjLz_tu8BoCGsJut9JOaWDPsT4oYw82vNwaVFhIFv2LLTxn4IUbOhqrSHkxzydh3VEPgMkuoWu8Dsyu5114z4_ucjQfi3ovKof2ktteJ-QwxxDAjawW/w640-h232/114%20TABLE%20SECONDARY%20REACTION%20SIL%20GDX%20DOW%20THEORY%20NOV%2030%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">So, now we wait for a >=2 days pullback exceeding
the </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES;">Volatility-Adjusted Minimum Movement (more about the
VAMM </span><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2014/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-11.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES;">HERE</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES;">) on at least one ETF to set up GDX and SIL for a <i>potential</i>
primary bull market signal. We don't require confirmation When dealing with
this kind of “setting up” pullback, as I explained in depth </span><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/11/dow-theory-special-issue-is-primary.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES;">HERE</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES;">. </span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The charts below show the price action that started
off the Bear market lows (Step #1), the bounce (secondary reaction against the
bear market) that followed (Step #2). The blue horizontal line shows the
secondary reaction highs (Step #2), whose confirmed breakup entails a new
primary bull market.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The blue rectangles
highlight the secondary reaction (Step #2). The grey rectangles show rallies that did not qualify as a secondary reaction, and hence are ignored. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitJrs0FE8BpgrLvLkusIAoKmeDlFPHElpGNBmbK4_cX1L18YUzXEOne6JOWYZoiVZNugB0VgVQOiIMmjX40auLkuw-GxbXjVxS-hKNLMyWzycZygI07W0HvA6_sahBVpwmMfup1ou5uJayAWYDkzfzEsXwcUVMWTOPsG2SnXqssn-oPCAkOdjUoz-8g5iZ/s1900/113%20SIL%20GDX%20secondary%20reaction%20dow%20theory%20Nov%2030%202023%20EDITED.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="807" data-original-width="1900" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitJrs0FE8BpgrLvLkusIAoKmeDlFPHElpGNBmbK4_cX1L18YUzXEOne6JOWYZoiVZNugB0VgVQOiIMmjX40auLkuw-GxbXjVxS-hKNLMyWzycZygI07W0HvA6_sahBVpwmMfup1ou5uJayAWYDkzfzEsXwcUVMWTOPsG2SnXqssn-oPCAkOdjUoz-8g5iZ/w640-h272/113%20SIL%20GDX%20secondary%20reaction%20dow%20theory%20Nov%2030%202023%20EDITED.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES;">B) Market
situation if one sticks to the traditional interpretation demanding at least
three weeks of movement to declare a secondary reaction. </span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES;">The primary trend was signaled
as bearish on 6/20/23, as I explained <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/06/dow-theory-update-for-june-21-primary.html" target="_blank">HERE</a>.</span><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES;"> <br /></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES-US;">In this
specific instance, the trend appraisal using the “long-term” version of the Dow
Theory yields the same results as the “short-term” one. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES;">So, what I explained above applies fully to this
section. The primary trend remains bearish and the secondary one is bullish.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;"> <br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;">Sincerely,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;">Manuel Blay</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;">Editor of <a href="http://thedowtheory.com/" target="_blank">thedowtheory.com</a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES;"> </span></p>
The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-55886206070972258582023-11-27T19:22:00.005-05:002023-11-27T19:29:07.108-05:00Dow Theory Update for November 27: Primary bull market for gold and silver signaled on 11/27/23<h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;">The trend for gold and silver miners’ ETFs remains
bearish</span></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES;">General
Remarks:</span></u></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2020/10/dow-theory-update-for-october-2-why-i.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; mso-fareast-language: ES-US;">In this
post</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: ES;">, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative
definitions to appraise secondary reactions. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES;">GOLD AND SILVER</span></u></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><b><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES;">A) Market situation if one appraises
secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma.</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES;">I explained </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/06/dow-theory-update-for-june-21-primary_21.html" target="_blank"><span style="mso-fareast-language: ES;">HERE</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES;"> that gold and silver have been in a primary bear
market since 6/21/23. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;">Following a secondary
reaction, a pullback set up GLD and SLV for a primary bull market signal, as I
explained <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/11/dow-theory-update-for-november-11-setup.html" target="_blank">HERE</a>. <br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;">On 11/15/23, SLV
surpassed its 10/20/23 secondary reaction highs (Step #2 in the Table below), <u>unconfirmed
</u>by GLD. So, absent confirmation, no bull market was signaled. On 11/27/23,
GLD finally confirmed by breaking topside its 10/27/23 closing highs (Step #4) ,
and, accordingly, a primary bull market was signaled. Now, both the primary and
secondary trends are bullish. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;">The Table below contains
the details of the price action unfolding from the last recorded bear market
lows until 11/27/23 breakup. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdzCQsuEWrLM2OlMoDN7CWoX8d-CGPdOmWXtltEWL1r67U8ChlSaasssQdk08hN2L1yfsC7FbqtF-d3_hv-eBFbmAFAkfLt81vXN9EOEJUJXtppuihLrL3qKQZpxqx5Ztcwpf1ApExCqTNS7yCiEfUqzsy-swiAABJNBVUkvphFanc-T9sisnblgS9Ekgu/s857/105%20TABLE%20GLD%20SLV%20DOW%20THEORY%20SHORT%20TERM%20NOV%2027%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="330" data-original-width="857" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdzCQsuEWrLM2OlMoDN7CWoX8d-CGPdOmWXtltEWL1r67U8ChlSaasssQdk08hN2L1yfsC7FbqtF-d3_hv-eBFbmAFAkfLt81vXN9EOEJUJXtppuihLrL3qKQZpxqx5Ztcwpf1ApExCqTNS7yCiEfUqzsy-swiAABJNBVUkvphFanc-T9sisnblgS9Ekgu/w640-h246/105%20TABLE%20GLD%20SLV%20DOW%20THEORY%20SHORT%20TERM%20NOV%2027%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div> <p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;">The charts below display the
most recent price action. The blue horizontal lines highlight the bounce highs
(Step #2) which were the key prices to be surpassed to signal a new bull
market. The blue rectangles show the secondary (bullish) reaction that unfolded
against the then-existing bear market. The brown rectangles highlight the
pullback (Step #3) that set up both ETFs for a primary bull market signal. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHtyltHCT0ctX2aGu2TRa6tt4WNxZ9FMa6fwFFc2tReZFH_EMOJJd1UHoPlr7qqMFAGgcSZP98bXYqNbUan6TAU_U0u-VMvmnITgON8-p-w_UcFpBQxmZEQsuPnzSEUcXL5ni8NCDAwceNF95fkwl3HZ_cNJqvaBtfyxS0njQWWk5Z35Wn5iYkUc94DRuy/s1900/106%20gld%20slv%20dow%20theory%20short%20term%20charts%20nov%2027%202023%20EDITED.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="807" data-original-width="1900" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHtyltHCT0ctX2aGu2TRa6tt4WNxZ9FMa6fwFFc2tReZFH_EMOJJd1UHoPlr7qqMFAGgcSZP98bXYqNbUan6TAU_U0u-VMvmnITgON8-p-w_UcFpBQxmZEQsuPnzSEUcXL5ni8NCDAwceNF95fkwl3HZ_cNJqvaBtfyxS0njQWWk5Z35Wn5iYkUc94DRuy/w640-h272/106%20gld%20slv%20dow%20theory%20short%20term%20charts%20nov%2027%202023%20EDITED.jpg" width="640" /></a></div> <br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">B) Market situation if one sticks to the
traditional interpretation demanding at least three weeks of movement to
declare a secondary reaction. </span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">As I
explained </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/06/dow-theory-update-for-june-21-primary.html"><span style="mso-fareast-language: ES;">HERE</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">, the primary trend
was signaled as bearish on 6/21/23.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;">After the 10/5/23 bear
market lows (Step #1 in the table below), a bounce followed (Step #2) that
satisfied the time requirement for a secondary reaction (at least fifteen
trading days confirmed). The extent requirement was also met, as the rally
amply exceeded the Volatility-Adjusted Minimum Movement (more about the VAMM <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2014/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-11.html" target="_blank">HERE</a>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span> <br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQTHcfYzHCrlyLWtfJN4VOQpMJi9Qkq8fI_lekFGALJMmu3AfJXLs7N9vfVccChc1JJ0YSx7PTJyacIhtzpxqhXJvTT9qMpALZprdMM02IVfbLgBO1l6CfRj1eBrXOMbuL6H_iPG1GTeZfEJf7995nYKDL-wK8UoJBmB57Fa8CRKze9hT-_Yuly3NHrD7r/s858/107%20table%20gld%20slv%20dow%20theory%20long%20term%20Nov%2027%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="303" data-original-width="858" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQTHcfYzHCrlyLWtfJN4VOQpMJi9Qkq8fI_lekFGALJMmu3AfJXLs7N9vfVccChc1JJ0YSx7PTJyacIhtzpxqhXJvTT9qMpALZprdMM02IVfbLgBO1l6CfRj1eBrXOMbuL6H_iPG1GTeZfEJf7995nYKDL-wK8UoJBmB57Fa8CRKze9hT-_Yuly3NHrD7r/w640-h226/107%20table%20gld%20slv%20dow%20theory%20long%20term%20Nov%2027%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;">So, now we are looking
for a >= 2-day pullback that would set up GLD and SLV for a potential
primary bull market. Hence, the primary trend is bearish, and the secondary one
is bullish. </span></p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;">The charts below display the
most recent price action. The blue rectangles show the secondary (bullish)
reaction that unfolded against the then-existing bear market. <br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPqoT2GU7ynrMZi104EafROCuM0589WOXzBxg4hfaBrrb4e6V45y0k1cGjspC7FstNrUoeho-ozsi4L2GgVn0_XVrcy-RDcqEAE7siqo5m_BafPNkAqRM9-Tp-N0dNiPcOBlcIAOPjyfz9kGNjPSOomqHnzxHj7LC3bdbrzyJc0gd5x53E11b1zESsnSIE/s1900/108%20gld%20slv%20long%20term%20dow%20theory%20charts%20nov%2027%202023%20EDITED.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="807" data-original-width="1900" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPqoT2GU7ynrMZi104EafROCuM0589WOXzBxg4hfaBrrb4e6V45y0k1cGjspC7FstNrUoeho-ozsi4L2GgVn0_XVrcy-RDcqEAE7siqo5m_BafPNkAqRM9-Tp-N0dNiPcOBlcIAOPjyfz9kGNjPSOomqHnzxHj7LC3bdbrzyJc0gd5x53E11b1zESsnSIE/w640-h272/108%20gld%20slv%20long%20term%20dow%20theory%20charts%20nov%2027%202023%20EDITED.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;">Sincerely,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;">Manuel Blay</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%;">Editor of <a href="http://thedowtheory.com/" target="_blank">thedowtheory.com</a></span></p>
The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-24094615917439730212023-11-20T09:33:00.001-05:002023-11-20T09:33:03.736-05:00Dow Theory Update for November 20: U.S. bonds under a secondary reaction against the still-existing bearish trend<h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"> Despite all the fanfare, the primary trend remains bearish. <br /></span></h3><p><span style="font-size: large;"> <strong>General Remarks:</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2020/10/dow-theory-update-for-october-2-why-i.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">In this post</a>, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it <a href="https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf" rel="noopener" target="_blank">here</a></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">IEF is the iShares 7-10 years Treasury bond ETF. More about it <a href="https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf" rel="noopener" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Thus, TLT tracks longer-term US bonds, whereas IEF tracks middle-term
US bonds. A bull market in bonds entails lower interest rates. A bear
market in bonds represents higher interest rates.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><strong>A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks and 1/3 retracement dogma. </strong></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">As I explained <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2022/09/dow-theory-update-for-september-22.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">HERE</a>, the primary trend was signaled as bearish on 9/20/22.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">On 9/19/23, IEF penetrated its 10/20/22 primary bear market lows. On
9/21/23, TLT broke down below its 10/24/22 lows, providing confirmation.
Accordingly, the primary bear market was confirmed, as I explained more
in-depth <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/09/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">HERE</a>.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Following the 10/19/23 bear market lows (Step #1 in the Table below),
a rally ensued. The rally has been going on for 21 trading days, which
satisfies the timer requirement for a secondary reaction. Regarding the <strong>extent requirement, TLT</strong>
and IEF bounced 8.78% and 4.02%, respectively, which amply exceed the
Volatility-Adjusted Minimum Movement (more explanations about VAMM <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2014/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-11.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">here</a>).
Accordingly, a secondary (bullish) reaction against the still-existing
primary bear market has been signaled. The table below shows you the
relevant data:</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxZL27bv1mMT-ggXi87KoePmNv8WJ0WX0Zh-Q4kPVig9rsH-l3sgncAhc-0UtL72uPuHtKZD26YALZLIPLdxXAGfpNoBbc3qOjnwHm9ZWExNrEbClvnmefgklqm4JBVHXWA-aSqn99GOGwv5S5tH_YHOlo_wiJBYth7OB8qK-GYU61Y8nXpAySWvyx5TGV/s915/100%20table%20tlt%20ief%20bonds%20dow%20theory%20Nov%2018%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="396" data-original-width="915" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxZL27bv1mMT-ggXi87KoePmNv8WJ0WX0Zh-Q4kPVig9rsH-l3sgncAhc-0UtL72uPuHtKZD26YALZLIPLdxXAGfpNoBbc3qOjnwHm9ZWExNrEbClvnmefgklqm4JBVHXWA-aSqn99GOGwv5S5tH_YHOlo_wiJBYth7OB8qK-GYU61Y8nXpAySWvyx5TGV/w640-h276/100%20table%20tlt%20ief%20bonds%20dow%20theory%20Nov%2018%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /> So, now we are waiting for a pullback on both ETFs which would set up TLT & IEF for a <em>potential </em>primary
bull market signal (Step #3, not market in yellow because we are not
there yet). In the meantime, we wait. I noticed that volume has
noticeably increased during the rally, which is normally suggestive of
just a secondary reaction, not a new bull market. Volume during the
pullback, and more importantly after that will give us further
indications.</span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">The chart below shows the most recent price action. The blue
rectangles highlight the current secondary reaction against the bear
market. The red lines show the last primary bear market lows, whose
penetration reconfirmed the primary bear market.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXRICrxTQeA9mdB0XWmLdolzzj8ih8KlnAbMvuvVc1iqaRxw6sx-JFc0k7_HzVktwDSyNKPosRdeQ9NtScxqf5aOmTHL3WhciJ9eYSc0HciRIVF8ITQcVFHIK8pia5axlNK1CDNK1xPZzS-ydHYl40jlEjDvmZ65F-7p3nHKLM1nHxPs8ADHg1iUR1hoNL/s1900/101%20chart%20TLT%20IEF%20dow%20theor%20nov%2017%202023%20edited.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="807" data-original-width="1900" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXRICrxTQeA9mdB0XWmLdolzzj8ih8KlnAbMvuvVc1iqaRxw6sx-JFc0k7_HzVktwDSyNKPosRdeQ9NtScxqf5aOmTHL3WhciJ9eYSc0HciRIVF8ITQcVFHIK8pia5axlNK1CDNK1xPZzS-ydHYl40jlEjDvmZ65F-7p3nHKLM1nHxPs8ADHg1iUR1hoNL/w640-h272/101%20chart%20TLT%20IEF%20dow%20theor%20nov%2017%202023%20edited.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">The Dow Theory has been tracking accurately this bear market (and
avoiding losses or making profits for those shorting) as explained <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/10/bonds-in-crisis-discovering-dow-theorys.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">HERE</a> and <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/08/dow-theory-update-for-august-15_15.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">HERE</a>.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><strong>B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional
interpretation demanding more than three weeks and 1/3 confirmed
retracement to declare a secondary reaction.</strong></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">The primary trend was signaled as bearish on 9/28/21. A more
aggressive and legitimate interpretation would have signaled the bear
market on 9/24/21. The explanations <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2021/10/dow-theory-update-for-october-21.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">In this specific instance, the price action that was explained above
fully applies to the “longer term” rendering of the Dow Theory. In other
words, look at the table and charts above, as they fully explain what
has been going on when we take a longer view. Therefore,<strong> the primary trend is bearish and secondary one is bullish.</strong></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Sincerely,</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Manuel Blay</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Editor of <a href="https://thedowtheory.com">thedowtheory.com</a></span></p>The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-89860228711744296922023-11-13T17:07:00.004-05:002023-11-13T17:07:33.804-05:00Two more interviews with Alessio Rastani on YouTube: Discussing Bitcoin and Silver<p>J<span class="break-words
"><span dir="ltr">oin me in a candid Bitcoin discussion with
Alessio Rastani. We explore future price objectives using the Rule of 7
and delve into when market corrections might occur. Check out the full
interview by clicking HERE:</span></span></p><p><span class="break-words
"><span dir="ltr">https://youtu.be/s3pdphYobi8 <br /></span></span></p><p><span class="break-words
"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRW4eOo9Js5wAR48HHHLvv8Kv-UqoW2b7hywJlAojpsGbuEPR0foLTmODt2nR42KqHteOhxWG55UJqw-P7zXbR69KqDTdkp6oihzzZJsfVxGkh_D7dhUp43eEinqHCKos1FtESzAZXcKo09KoyADF-5JN8S61nwBpo1ha7Wh0QWadX2wxIFmZA4BLX3qkJ/s831/YouTube%20Bitcoin%20November%208%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="632" data-original-width="831" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRW4eOo9Js5wAR48HHHLvv8Kv-UqoW2b7hywJlAojpsGbuEPR0foLTmODt2nR42KqHteOhxWG55UJqw-P7zXbR69KqDTdkp6oihzzZJsfVxGkh_D7dhUp43eEinqHCKos1FtESzAZXcKo09KoyADF-5JN8S61nwBpo1ha7Wh0QWadX2wxIFmZA4BLX3qkJ/s320/YouTube%20Bitcoin%20November%208%202023.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span dir="ltr"> </span>And in the video below, Alessio Rastani and I discuss the current state of the silver market. After
rallying from its October lows, silver has experienced a recent pullback,
prompting us to analyze whether the silver chart is currently exhibiting
bullish or bearish signals. <p></p>
<p>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtTqVpMOrUo</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh852fAbSzZ8J38UrpvrvQcFoCniLkEmTGeSiN1aigbA_BAEHYoTYPJax6KmViWMvtPPNIjQ5-OgcVU3ZlMHLAxQg2Oi1uG3MefRVlTheEylSEZSdJlE2Qw5vBzVtrhzm2dVVqy90zTnQ8vv8cyLHLdzmXrZFVQDV3eMnFxE0470fTle4l24dcQVWyp1oi2/s876/YouTube%20Bitcoin%20November%2010%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="637" data-original-width="876" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh852fAbSzZ8J38UrpvrvQcFoCniLkEmTGeSiN1aigbA_BAEHYoTYPJax6KmViWMvtPPNIjQ5-OgcVU3ZlMHLAxQg2Oi1uG3MefRVlTheEylSEZSdJlE2Qw5vBzVtrhzm2dVVqy90zTnQ8vv8cyLHLdzmXrZFVQDV3eMnFxE0470fTle4l24dcQVWyp1oi2/s320/YouTube%20Bitcoin%20November%2010%202023.jpg" width="320" /></a></div> <p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Sincerely,</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Manuel Blay</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Editor of </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><a href="http://thedowtheory.com/" target="_blank"><span style="mso-fareast-language: ES;">thedowtheory.com</span></a></span></p><p> </p><p> </p>
The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-5287874372311754562023-11-09T19:32:00.003-05:002023-11-09T19:32:46.911-05:00Dow Theory Update for November 11: Setup for a potential Bull market for SLV & GLD completed on November 8.<a href="http://thedowtheory.com/" target="_blank"><!--[if !mso]>
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<![endif]--></a><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">General Remarks:</span></u></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2020/10/dow-theory-update-for-october-2-why-i.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; mso-fareast-language: ES-US;">In this
post</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">, I
thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to
appraise secondary reactions. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">GOLD AND
SILVER</span></u></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><b><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">A) Market situation if one
appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma.</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">I explained </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/06/dow-theory-update-for-june-21-primary_21.html" target="_blank"><span style="mso-fareast-language: ES;">HERE</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> that gold and silver have been in a primary bear market since 6/21/23. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">After the 10/5/23 bear market lows (Step #1 in
the table below), a bounce followed (Step #2) that satisfied the time
requirement for a secondary reaction (at least ten trading days confirmed). The
extent requirement was also met, as the rally amply exceeded the Volatility-Adjusted
Minimum Movement (more about the VAMM <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2014/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-11.html" target="_blank">HERE</a>). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">After the bounce, there has been a >=2 day pullback
that fulfilled the VAMM on GLD (Step #3). We don't require confirmation When
dealing with this kind of “setting up” pullback, as I explained in depth <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/11/dow-theory-special-issue-is-primary.html" target="_blank">HERE</a>. <br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCjCIOq_KJBG6gJPdZUj4CBzot-A1IqPy2ExO1_lQMSCFmaCUrFjMOagbyzgVO-oh1dNNY09gRkCA3vbNyGT6Pz8CxB_CsErOgd78_2A0W7L6D-wS51IHBrR4enZqg-htEeV8zgzJsXdSpvf2B6_lS3DF1jTKimc9IPSNQyL25lBUXBcvBvUnJMMuEalDX/s847/97%20sec%20reaction%20and%20setup%20BULL%20DOW%20THEORY%20GOLD%20AND%20SILVER%20Nov%209%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="327" data-original-width="847" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCjCIOq_KJBG6gJPdZUj4CBzot-A1IqPy2ExO1_lQMSCFmaCUrFjMOagbyzgVO-oh1dNNY09gRkCA3vbNyGT6Pz8CxB_CsErOgd78_2A0W7L6D-wS51IHBrR4enZqg-htEeV8zgzJsXdSpvf2B6_lS3DF1jTKimc9IPSNQyL25lBUXBcvBvUnJMMuEalDX/w640-h248/97%20sec%20reaction%20and%20setup%20BULL%20DOW%20THEORY%20GOLD%20AND%20SILVER%20Nov%209%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-no-proof: yes;"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">So, now there are two possible outcomes:</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">a)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">If
GLD and SLV jointly surpass the secondary reaction highs (Step #2 in the
table above), a new primary bull market will be signaled.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">b)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">If
GLD and SLV jointly pierce their Bear market lows, the primary bear market will
be reconfirmed, and the secondary reaction and the bullish setup will be
canceled. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The charts below show the price action that started off
the Bear market lows (Step #1), the bounce (secondary reaction against the bear
market) that followed (Step #2), and the most recent pullback (Step #3) that
setup GLD and SLV for a potential primary bull market signal. The red horizontal
line highlights the 10/5/23 bear market lows. The blue horizontal line shows
the secondary reaction highs (Step #2), whose confirmed breakup entails a new
primary bull market.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The blue rectangles
highlight the secondary reaction (Step #2) and the brownish ones, the pullback
that set up both precious metals for a potential primary bull market (Step #3).</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgODZTvlEGSwhemGP6KscLPQ8qtEcQeOd0wAupF-HbHrXeCBDz_WoC7XNAnPktmzrLiLWQyRjA7Teni5pso_K6PwjNPsmVU5yFo1M0OT_WJa_cImH4_LjlVFtoC4c5Hc4xA_qkwDUyH-2UUtpIEtnNcjYd9DkFOzd9ch5j-yxCUzoRkvs5deez_qN1I_m9T/s1900/98%20GLD%20SLV%20DOW%20%20THEORY%20SHORT%20TERM%20NOV%209%202023%20EDITED.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="837" data-original-width="1900" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgODZTvlEGSwhemGP6KscLPQ8qtEcQeOd0wAupF-HbHrXeCBDz_WoC7XNAnPktmzrLiLWQyRjA7Teni5pso_K6PwjNPsmVU5yFo1M0OT_WJa_cImH4_LjlVFtoC4c5Hc4xA_qkwDUyH-2UUtpIEtnNcjYd9DkFOzd9ch5j-yxCUzoRkvs5deez_qN1I_m9T/w640-h282/98%20GLD%20SLV%20DOW%20%20THEORY%20SHORT%20TERM%20NOV%209%202023%20EDITED.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional interpretation
demanding at least three weeks of movement to declare a secondary
reaction. </span></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">As I
explained </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/06/dow-theory-update-for-june-21-primary.html"><span style="mso-fareast-language: ES;">HERE</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">, the primary
trend was signaled as bearish on 6/21/23.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The latest rally did not persist for a minimum of
15 confirmed trading days, leading to the absence of a secondary reaction.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Consequently, both the primary and secondary
trends remain bearish.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Sincerely,</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Manuel Blay</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Editor of </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><a href="http://thedowtheory.com/" target="_blank"><span style="mso-fareast-language: ES;">thedowtheory.com</span></a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span>The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-68195425242048916262023-11-06T15:19:00.000-05:002023-11-06T15:19:03.409-05:00Exploring Market Headwinds and Future Scenarios with Alessio Rastani<h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span>Navigating Stock Market Challenges: Insights from a Recent YouTube Interview<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
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</h3><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">I want to thank
Alessio Rastani for having me on his YouTube channel. It was a fantastic
experience talking about the current state of the stock market. We covered the
two significant challenges that could potentially keep the S&P500 from
hitting all-time highs in the near future and delved into various other
interesting topics. If you can overlook my Spanish accent, you're welcome to
watch the interview by clicking on the link below. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span class="comments-comment-itemmain-content"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xP3eaH6_X1U" target="_self">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xP3eaH6_X1U</a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span class="comments-comment-itemmain-content"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span class="comments-comment-itemmain-content"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjS6kUQyPF01jTzn6gN2QA1PoJcQoqVSZPO3tSF-63h8omlRncU3Pb3gsDSKCAyVbEcGZ9XJX84UzUETcyGvk5mPVYQY4jXBzGwArrxroWUOdpZUQRepdOakTrJyxweGGDMmqmqMLnxx0D4cNlXHfHx1LjIdSzLRiBNdXHpy76NBcnKv10wfCbEPVflRjFR/s1350/12%20Youtube%20interview%20stock%20market%20photo%20Nov%206%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="619" data-original-width="1350" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjS6kUQyPF01jTzn6gN2QA1PoJcQoqVSZPO3tSF-63h8omlRncU3Pb3gsDSKCAyVbEcGZ9XJX84UzUETcyGvk5mPVYQY4jXBzGwArrxroWUOdpZUQRepdOakTrJyxweGGDMmqmqMLnxx0D4cNlXHfHx1LjIdSzLRiBNdXHpy76NBcnKv10wfCbEPVflRjFR/w640-h294/12%20Youtube%20interview%20stock%20market%20photo%20Nov%206%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: 107%;">Sincerely,</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: 107%;">Manuel Blay</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"></span></span></p>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: 107%;">Editor of <a href="http://thedowtheory.com" target="_blank">thedowtheory.com</a></span></span><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span class="comments-comment-itemmain-content"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-78659732909769326442023-10-23T19:38:00.000-04:002023-10-23T19:38:24.742-04:00Dow Theory Analysis Featured in 'Markets Insider': Implications of Recent SELL Signal<p><span style="font-size: large;">I thank Matthew Fox for quoting my Dow Theory analysis in “<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-analysis-dow-transportation-index-raises-alarm-warning-outlook-2023-10?_gl=1*1ynpunk*_ga*NTk1Mzc4NTEwLjE2ODQyNTQ5NjI.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTY5NzkzNTYwMC4zMC4xLjE2OTc5MzYzMDUuNTAuMC4w" target="_blank">Markets Insider</a>”.
</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">As stated in Matthew’s article, on 10/23/2023, the Dow Industrials broke
down below its 10/3/23 closing lows, triggering a SELL signal. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">The table below shows the most relevant price action that led to the
10/23/23 Sell signal. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjTDl3nzUq5HvbIszoFy4jKEZJk92LxCemAnBug-kB12to5RrUEqAS2-3_ozdU_sgIrwUFyAJVlDrWcP-Yb_PoIsZnH0iqPrFpvua4n629EuKk6t5eTgXNuhm612gVbqePEu8qVNsZePkhPiVn8ywwipKXRJzrC9GYpi1m7GhA08z-XmrhTirtTCIQT3mb/s942/TAble%20classical%20Dow%20Theory.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="287" data-original-width="942" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjTDl3nzUq5HvbIszoFy4jKEZJk92LxCemAnBug-kB12to5RrUEqAS2-3_ozdU_sgIrwUFyAJVlDrWcP-Yb_PoIsZnH0iqPrFpvua4n629EuKk6t5eTgXNuhm612gVbqePEu8qVNsZePkhPiVn8ywwipKXRJzrC9GYpi1m7GhA08z-XmrhTirtTCIQT3mb/w640-h194/TAble%20classical%20Dow%20Theory.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;">Historical data from 1953 reveals that post a Dow Theory sell signal, the
market often experiences an average additional decline of 11.81% before finding
its final bottom. For a deeper dive, you can explore the details in the link
given below.</span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://thedowtheory.com/resources/traditional-dow-theory/declines-after-selling/">https://thedowtheory.com/resources/traditional-dow-theory/declines-after-selling/</a></span></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;">This SELL signal points towards the potential for further downside in the
market's price action. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;">As an aside, our own Dow Theory variation, the Dow Theory for the 21st
Century, (DT21C) triggered a SELL on 10/20/23, which allowed us and our Subscribers to
exit at a slightly better price. The DT21C is even better (more outperformance and drawdown reduction vs. Buy & Hold) than the classical Dow Theory, as I explained <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/p/face-off-schannep-versus-classical-dow.html" target="_blank">here</a></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;">The chart below shows the most recent price action. The orange rectangles
display the secondary reaction against the bull market. The blue rectangles
highlight the bounce that completed the setup for a Sell signal. The red
horizontal lines showcase the secondary reaction lows (Step #2), which was the
relevant price level to be jointly violated for a Sell signal to be given.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsab6OudTFKoXF2bGOa6Nz64dImZ-4F-vlFiXvCFHvkKPM2-moADJEczp7CB8CBCHiFH0mZiKcbm9-t-75xkQvBxvIDiNFCd0CvLJANoNVRKiuR3YO0_DhcBZ6L1G1wBdg-y4248JPmsU4b_bi3LovQ-031FhwkPUvGhoeG4Tsej1pWKWuZshowVr5-55Q/s1920/94%20DOW%20THEORY%20CLASSICAL%20SELL%20SIGNAL%20OCT%2023%202023%20edited.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="871" data-original-width="1920" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsab6OudTFKoXF2bGOa6Nz64dImZ-4F-vlFiXvCFHvkKPM2-moADJEczp7CB8CBCHiFH0mZiKcbm9-t-75xkQvBxvIDiNFCd0CvLJANoNVRKiuR3YO0_DhcBZ6L1G1wBdg-y4248JPmsU4b_bi3LovQ-031FhwkPUvGhoeG4Tsej1pWKWuZshowVr5-55Q/w640-h290/94%20DOW%20THEORY%20CLASSICAL%20SELL%20SIGNAL%20OCT%2023%202023%20edited.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: 107%;">Sincerely,</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: 107%;">Manuel Blay</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"></span></span></p>
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<p> </p><p> <br /></p>
The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-21394232962425374362023-10-12T16:25:00.029-04:002023-10-13T11:38:14.980-04:00Bonds in Crisis: Discovering Dow Theory's Healing Touch<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><h3 style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Dow Theory's
Prescription for the Bond Debacle Dilemma</span></h3>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Due to the surge in interest rates, long-duration
bonds have experienced a significant loss of value, amounting to a 50%
drawdown. This substantial decline in the so-called safe haven asset class
resembles the drawdowns seen in stock indexes, underscoring the fact that
unexpected events occur. Investors sometimes harbor a false sense of security
through simplistic strategies like buy and hold or the 60/40 portfolio.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">So, <b>let's assess whether the Dow Theory (DT) protected bond investors</b> throughout the bear market that commenced
in August 2020.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">To begin, we know that since the inception of
TLT, the Dow Theory has consistently delivered strong results by outperforming
buy and hold and mitigating drawdowns. In previous posts (found <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2022/02/dow-theory-update-for-february-16-does.html" target="_blank">HERE</a>,
<a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2022/03/dow-theory-update-does-dow-theory-work.html" target="_blank">HERE</a>,
and <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2022/03/dow-theory-update-does-dow-theory-work_22.html" target="_blank">HERE</a>),
I substantiated these results with robust data, illustrating the effectiveness
of the DT when applied to TLT and EDV. I also demonstrated that the DT was much
more effective at cutting drawdowns and achieving outperformance vs. buy and
hold (BAH) than other trend-following systems. Therefore, my emphasis on the
Dow Theory is not a trivial fixation but a thoroughly reasoned choice. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">However, the research I linked to above concluded in
March 2022. Therefore, we need to assess the developments from that date and,
more crucially, <b>evaluate how the DT has performed in safeguarding bond
investors since the onset of the bear market </b>on August 4, 2020. In essence,
scrutinizing the most recent bear market offers an excellent "out of
sample" test. Moreover, my prior research primarily took place during a
thriving bond bull market. Given the substantial shift in the market environment, assessing how the DT performs when confronted with a significant bear market makes sense.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The following trades are the ones that I have publicly
disclosed on my blog and in my monthly <a href="https://thedowtheory.com/" target="_blank">letter to subscribers</a>. So, <b>it is not a simulation but a compilation of the actual
trades</b> I discerned in real time. </span></p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of authorities"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="macro"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="toa heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The rules applied are as follows:</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><span>1. </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">I initiated the analysis
at TLT's market peak on 8/4/2020, beginning with an equity of $100 for both Buy
and Hold (BAH) and the Dow Theory.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><span>2.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-language-override: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The analysis concludes on
10/6/2023, marking the most recent bear market low.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><span>3.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-language-override: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Dividends are not
factored in for either BAH or the DT; the focus is on pure price action.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><span>4.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-language-override: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">For BAH, the calculations
are straightforward: I consider the initial price of TLT and the final price.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><span>5.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-language-override: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">For the DT, two subsets
are calculated. The first is the DT "only long," which means that
when a Sell signal is generated, the portfolio moves to cash. No interest
accrual while in cash has been taken into account. The second subset is the DT
"long/short," in which the DT triggers a SELL, resulting in a short
position. Conversely, when a BUY signal is given, the short position is
covered, and the portfolio goes long. This approach maximizes the potential
inherent in the Dow Theory. Like BAH, the DT commences at the top on 8/4/2020.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Now, let's delve into the
performance comparison, as shown in the Table below:</span></span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxC2FQGpAhjRLCH66p6RjT-nsOzft7OfxJuTN5dhBxlj6HBk6NBe5DjGaIfRv9DEREkEaCb2-ucoQwK-5OCUrND3RH5r4jIn1HU5qZSgYvEI3c_gZdVwQ-7Adf6-8KqwQDxUr7sU3Tqo8cfXBiVRL6Oq-D_W9AU0KHSkbBSvzsDOSrp0OjpfGsyH6Zl9Vu/s659/01%20recap%20comparison%20performance%20BAH%20%20DT%20and%20DT%20LONG%20%20SHORT%20EDITED%20big.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="381" data-original-width="659" height="370" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxC2FQGpAhjRLCH66p6RjT-nsOzft7OfxJuTN5dhBxlj6HBk6NBe5DjGaIfRv9DEREkEaCb2-ucoQwK-5OCUrND3RH5r4jIn1HU5qZSgYvEI3c_gZdVwQ-7Adf6-8KqwQDxUr7sU3Tqo8cfXBiVRL6Oq-D_W9AU0KHSkbBSvzsDOSrp0OjpfGsyH6Zl9Vu/w640-h370/01%20recap%20comparison%20performance%20BAH%20%20DT%20and%20DT%20LONG%20%20SHORT%20EDITED%20big.JPG" width="640" /></a></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">We can observe that Buy and Hold (BAH) yielded a
negative Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of -19.92% with a substantial
maximum drawdown of -50.50% (a clear example of capital destruction!). On the
other hand, the Dow Theory's "only long" approach, which shifts to
cash when a Sell signal triggers, incurred considerably smaller losses,
boasting a CAGR of -5.07% and a drawdown of only -19.73%. This means the
drawdown was more than halved. In terms of outperformance, the Dow Theory
outpaced BAH by an impressive 14.85% annually.<b> </b>Quite remarkable!</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The right column shows the full and logical application
of the DT, which entails going short. This strategy resulted in a significant
CAGR increase to 9.02%, and the drawdown was minimized to -10.37%. The
<b>outperformance of the "long/short" Dow Theory compared to BAH
skyrocketed to 28.04% annually</b>. Do you recognize the distinction between a
-19.92% annual loss and a 9.02% annual gain?</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Such outperformance is not an anomaly; I have
documented in my blog that the Dow Theory excels during market downturns. After
all, if the market consistently rose in a straight line, trend followers would,
at best, match the performance of Buy and Hold. Bear markets are the breeding
ground for our outperformance and drawdown reduction. This is why trend
following tests investors' patience. When any market enjoys a sustained upward
trajectory, trend following (including the Dow Theory) will, at best, keep pace
with Buy and Hold. Market timing truly shines during challenging periods, which
are inevitable. Patience is vital, but it is well rewarded.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">The table below displays the breakdown of the DT trades, including the
percentage gained or lost, as well as the percentage reduction in
drawdown compared to BAH.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAOVTB_NydOwt5bNhRx8l8TGmkRmaQXrIL4YdfnD1ebHHuHnWsU3-tHEXTOQu-cHg_SaAf5Begv-kU2HJ3ZQwZq8IpKuB0HHjJofMjuAJpSUqD5_U6Dnjr3vPGEGzDw6UiZTiTE5AiCVpM2A5DfutT5MLNL64I5lWPxk7LdTe1NtbCyPJoPRuYxZM3J27T/s870/02%20breakdown%20of%20trades%20DT%20oct%2012%202023%20edited%20big.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="383" data-original-width="870" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAOVTB_NydOwt5bNhRx8l8TGmkRmaQXrIL4YdfnD1ebHHuHnWsU3-tHEXTOQu-cHg_SaAf5Begv-kU2HJ3ZQwZq8IpKuB0HHjJofMjuAJpSUqD5_U6Dnjr3vPGEGzDw6UiZTiTE5AiCVpM2A5DfutT5MLNL64I5lWPxk7LdTe1NtbCyPJoPRuYxZM3J27T/w640-h282/02%20breakdown%20of%20trades%20DT%20oct%2012%202023%20edited%20big.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span><p></p><p><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Conclusions:</span></b></p>
<p style="margin-left: 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Dow Theory is not, as many believe, a cult. When
applied to stocks, it boasts a well-documented, third-party-validated track
record spanning over 130 years.</span></p>
<p style="margin-left: 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As elucidated in several posts (example <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/12/dow-theory-special-issue-hamiltons.html" target="_blank">HERE</a>
& <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/06/dow-theory-special-issue-which-markets.html" target="_blank">HERE</a>),
the DT can also be applied to other markets (oil, precious metals, crypto, and
bonds).</span></p>
<p style="margin-left: 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The DT is, in my opinion, the most accurate trend
following method. Why?<a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2014/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-3-why.html">
HERE</a> and<a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/04/dow-theory-special-issue-internal.html" target="_blank"> HERE</a> is the answer. </span></p>
<p style="margin-left: 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The DT worked beautifully during the secular bond bull
market, but, more importantly, it has also shown great outperformance vs. BAH
and drawdown reduction in the present colossal bear market. Therefore, precisely
when it is most needed, the Dow Theory has proven to be a protective shield for
investors.</span></p>
<p style="margin-left: 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Hence, multimarket application, documented track
records, proven outperformance, and drawdown reduction should boost our
confidence in utilizing the DT in our investment strategy. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Sincerely,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Manuel Blay</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Editor of </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="http://thedowtheory.com" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">thedowtheory.com</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><br /><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /> </span></p>
The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-81894365769973969042023-10-05T11:26:00.000-04:002023-10-05T11:26:13.184-04:00Dow Theory Update for October 5: The primary bear market in gold and silver reconfirmed on 9/29/2023<h4 style="text-align: left;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%;">Gold and Silver miners ETFs (GLD & SIL) bearish trend
unchanged</span></h4>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">General Remarks:</span></u></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2020/10/dow-theory-update-for-october-2-why-i.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES-US; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">In this post</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">, I thoroughly explained
the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary
reactions. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">GOLD AND SILVER</span></u></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the
three weeks dogma.</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">I explained </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/06/dow-theory-update-for-june-21-primary_21.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">HERE</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> that gold and silver have been in a primary bear market since 6/21/23. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Following the
June 2023 lows, a rally followed that qualified as a secondary reaction against
the primary bear market. More details about the secondary reaction </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/07/dow-theory-update-for-july-22th.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">HERE</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%;"> <br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%;">After the rally, a pullback followed that
set up both ETFs for a <i>potential</i> primary bull market signal (more <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/08/dow-theory-update-for-august-31-gold.html" target="_blank">HERE</a>).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%;">On 8/14/2023, GLD violated its 6/29/23
primary bear market low. SLV did not confirm until 9/29/23 when it pierced its
6/22/23 bear market lows. Hence, lower confirmed lows, imply:</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">a)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%;">The
primary bear market has been reaffirmed.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">b)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%;">The
secondary bullish reaction against the bear market has been canceled.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">c)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%;">The
setup for a <i>potential</i> primary bull market signal has been terminated. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES;">The Table below
shows the details:</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZhO6p2-qvOCwKLK0mJ3Eim5S4Vt5BGzRmjIp1bls0v1sBsqCRFXFsgYnbCmny-vJltzq_eNJz9_BXRhuRAzWE3wT169T5diuR1HccTh3Y_Ui2l0_79szQkBlAjCciK2mR80Fpc-snJ4M2Wugh86OMVYljZsqDkTNfApNxEJuQ02a2r2bEadxWRVYD-wiy/s846/88%20table%20gold%20silver%20dow%20theory%20short%20term%20Oct%204%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="312" data-original-width="846" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZhO6p2-qvOCwKLK0mJ3Eim5S4Vt5BGzRmjIp1bls0v1sBsqCRFXFsgYnbCmny-vJltzq_eNJz9_BXRhuRAzWE3wT169T5diuR1HccTh3Y_Ui2l0_79szQkBlAjCciK2mR80Fpc-snJ4M2Wugh86OMVYljZsqDkTNfApNxEJuQ02a2r2bEadxWRVYD-wiy/w640-h236/88%20table%20gold%20silver%20dow%20theory%20short%20term%20Oct%204%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="line number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="page number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of authorities"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="macro"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="toa heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES;">The charts below
display the most recent price action. The blue rectangles show the secondary
(bullish) reaction against the bear market. The brown rectangles display the
pullback that set up both ETFs for a potential primary bull market. The red
horizontal line highlights the last recorded primary bear market lows, which
have been jointly violated.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ES;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhN9-oZ6O7DdwU6TM7w7zYWBiRdUqvE4ePpHA3PWfpEP0ljzEX1IQIVoLDVrz_7qspG0_JNO2zgVKRWS2_ovSC22j5CZKTenGW37OoKM5VYvbMC-xxhTmbpjghh23b3LU0X8mzAaWsHgWFHth_bIhZLiVpyEc723NwqIbGRU3_1S4LbYme2LW10Fp7-JtI/s1900/90%20gld%20slv%20dow%20theory%20oct%204%202023%20edited.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="837" data-original-width="1900" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhN9-oZ6O7DdwU6TM7w7zYWBiRdUqvE4ePpHA3PWfpEP0ljzEX1IQIVoLDVrz_7qspG0_JNO2zgVKRWS2_ovSC22j5CZKTenGW37OoKM5VYvbMC-xxhTmbpjghh23b3LU0X8mzAaWsHgWFHth_bIhZLiVpyEc723NwqIbGRU3_1S4LbYme2LW10Fp7-JtI/w640-h282/90%20gld%20slv%20dow%20theory%20oct%204%202023%20edited.jpg" width="640" /></a></div> <b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">B) Market situation if one sticks to the
traditional interpretation demanding at least three weeks of movement to
declare a secondary reaction. </span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">As I
explained </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/06/dow-theory-update-for-june-21-primary.html"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">HERE</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">, the primary trend was signaled as bearish on 6/21/23.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The latest rally did not persist for a minimum of
15 confirmed trading days, leading to the absence of a secondary reaction.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Consequently, both the primary and secondary
trends remain bearish.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Sincerely,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Manuel Blay</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p>
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The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-22200939560059001472023-10-04T12:25:00.007-04:002023-10-05T11:18:51.587-04:00Dow Theory Update for October 4: Interview on thedisciplinedinvestor.com<p><span style="font-size: large;">Last 9/7/23, I had the pleasure of being
invited by Andrew Horowitz to appear on thedisciplinedinvestor.com.
During our discussion, we explored various topics, including the
significance of the confirmation principle, the application of our
Timing Indicators on the short side, and the role of fundamentals in our
Letter. If you’d like to listen to the interview, you can access it here:<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2023/09/10/tdi-podcast-dow-theory-and-trends-833/" target="_blank">https://thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2023/09/10/tdi-podcast-dow-theory-and-trends-833/</a></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #993366;"> </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #993366;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7SVrDADGBWt37MQmD1jqKVg6V9_nP5cXUIIwtc0gpCjQofXgHQi6ZFID9KsaUEQBG0SJiUIYhyvcMmPtnPeq-1nfWCqIGIGURgNXTMUvwb9ngrSSnmmW4aZs9R5wIWsrzMqDXKVKxA7SFNRY1Vo6-_GwzKCVWP_vs_kOg1r7wbteCsCDGMY2CwirjgC7p/s804/84%20the%20disciplined%20investor%20Dow%20Theory%20interview%20to%20Manuel%20Blay%20Sept%2011%202023.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="476" data-original-width="804" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7SVrDADGBWt37MQmD1jqKVg6V9_nP5cXUIIwtc0gpCjQofXgHQi6ZFID9KsaUEQBG0SJiUIYhyvcMmPtnPeq-1nfWCqIGIGURgNXTMUvwb9ngrSSnmmW4aZs9R5wIWsrzMqDXKVKxA7SFNRY1Vo6-_GwzKCVWP_vs_kOg1r7wbteCsCDGMY2CwirjgC7p/w640-h378/84%20the%20disciplined%20investor%20Dow%20Theory%20interview%20to%20Manuel%20Blay%20Sept%2011%202023.JPG" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;">Sincerely,</span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Manuel Blay</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Editor of <a href="https://thedowtheory.com">thedowtheory.com</a></span></p><p><span style="color: #993366;"> </span></p><p><span style="color: #993366;"> </span></p><p><span style="color: #993366;"> <br /></span></p>The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6134743053361487135.post-61416985307004874952023-09-23T17:35:00.000-04:002023-09-23T17:35:10.278-04:00Dow Theory Update for September 23: Primary bear market in U.S. bonds reaffirmed on 9/21/23<div><h3 style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-size: large;"><strong>The bear market in bonds continues…</strong></span></h3>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><strong><u>General Remarks:</u></strong></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2020/10/dow-theory-update-for-october-2-why-i.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">In this post</a>, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it <a href="https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf" rel="noopener" target="_blank">here</a></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">IEF is the iShares 7-10 years Treasury bond ETF. More about it <a href="https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf" rel="noopener" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Thus, TLT tracks longer-term US bonds, whereas IEF tracks middle-term
US bonds. A bull market in bonds entails lower interest rates. A bear
market in bonds represents higher interest rates.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><strong>A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks and 1/3 retracement dogma. </strong></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">As I explained <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2022/09/dow-theory-update-for-september-22.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">HERE</a>,
the primary trend was signaled as bearish on 9/20/22. Following the
October 2022 bear market lows, a rally ensued, qualifying as a secondary
(bullish) reaction against the primary bear market. Finally, a pullback
set up TLT and IEF for a potential primary bull market. <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2022/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-12-setup.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><strong>This post</strong></a> contains all the details.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">On 1/12/2023, IEF pushed through its 12/7/22 secondary reaction highs <strong>unconfirmed by TLT. </strong>The lack of confirmation implied that the trend had not changed from bearish to bullish. I explained <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/08/dow-theory-update-for-august-15_15.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">in this post</a> the details concerning the failed breakup, which incidentally was a great shorting opportunity.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">After the unconfirmed breakup by IEF, both ETFs headed lower for
several months. On 9/19/23, IEF penetrated its 10/20/22 primary bear
market lows. On 9/21/23, TLT broke down below its 10/24/22 lows,
providing confirmation. The Table below shows you the details:</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo9lm21P2uU5pBXPYAZL4mT3-ve8f91o72-08vkZ2StXlWATDqMaRtIuZf5RjiD-yhXoewwmKoOjHkMwp-yOeeEL4y3vErHsR772KRzy4E7sccsE0c0L66yt5umD9TJiuqaPo8_Qodi_GoG7d0zw8aPTnoOmX2e0_KE3beWSvr6QvWFmmZInQZw6N8dckn/s862/85%20table%20dow%20theory%20US%20bonds%20short%20term%20SEpt%2021%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="316" data-original-width="862" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo9lm21P2uU5pBXPYAZL4mT3-ve8f91o72-08vkZ2StXlWATDqMaRtIuZf5RjiD-yhXoewwmKoOjHkMwp-yOeeEL4y3vErHsR772KRzy4E7sccsE0c0L66yt5umD9TJiuqaPo8_Qodi_GoG7d0zw8aPTnoOmX2e0_KE3beWSvr6QvWFmmZInQZw6N8dckn/w640-h234/85%20table%20dow%20theory%20US%20bonds%20short%20term%20SEpt%2021%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">So, the implications of the newer lows are as follows:</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">1) The secondary reaction against the primary bear market has been terminated. Now the secondary trend is also bearish.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">2) The setup for a potential primary bull market has been canceled</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">3) The primary bear market signaled one year ago, on 9/20/22 has been reaffirmed.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">The charts below provide a visual representation of price action in
the market over the past year, spanning from the lows observed one year
ago to the present day. The blue rectangles on the charts indicate the
secondary (bullish) reaction against the primary bear market. In
contrast, the brown rectangles represent the initial pullback that set
up both ETFs for a potential primary bull market. Notably, the blue
arrow highlights IEF’s breakout above its secondary reaction highs, a
move that was not confirmed by TLT, thereby protecting us from a
whipsaw. The red horizontal lines highlight the primary bear market lows
of October 2022, which have been recently pierced.</span></p>
<p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGylRZLpO8_-PaO6S7mHwRlv_ZokVqzH-DGoQG2q8qU_XcBjfZpRrN2K4QG3iUhD0xxS12D66qsa9ucLnHmkM8GIyITIUc9FTgHiXMnc0ufdijDSxlDZDmM2KZPpyJh4sa77UyppZrIaO-EGLx_T8HiOe4Q-bTr5g8701FmFgPswJeaxSoGNyRNWboTR8m/s1920/86%20TLT%20and%20IEF%20bond%20market%20dow%20theory%20Sep%2021%202023%20edited.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="857" data-original-width="1920" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGylRZLpO8_-PaO6S7mHwRlv_ZokVqzH-DGoQG2q8qU_XcBjfZpRrN2K4QG3iUhD0xxS12D66qsa9ucLnHmkM8GIyITIUc9FTgHiXMnc0ufdijDSxlDZDmM2KZPpyJh4sa77UyppZrIaO-EGLx_T8HiOe4Q-bTr5g8701FmFgPswJeaxSoGNyRNWboTR8m/w640-h286/86%20TLT%20and%20IEF%20bond%20market%20dow%20theory%20Sep%2021%202023%20edited.jpg" width="640" /></a></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Therefore, it appears that the bond market is currently not factoring
in the likelihood of an imminent recession. Recessions typically compel
the Fed to ease, while demand contraction tends to squelch inflation.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Another noteworthy observation is that the recent decline in bond
prices occurred concurrently with a sharp drop in the stock market. This
type of price movement mirrors what was observed in the 1970s and is
characterized by a term: <strong>Stagflation.</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><strong>B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional
interpretation demanding more than three weeks and 1/3 confirmed
retracement to declare a secondary reaction.</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">The primary trend was signaled as bearish on 9/28/21. A more
aggressive and legitimate interpretation would have signaled the bear
market on 9/24/21. The explanations <a href="http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2021/10/dow-theory-update-for-october-21.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">In this specific instance, the price action that was explained above
fully applies to the “longer term” rendering of the Dow Theory. In other
words, look at the table and charts above, as they fully explain what
has been going on when we take a longer view. Therefore,<strong> the primary and secondary trend is bearish.</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Sincerely,</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Manuel Blay</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Editor of <a href="https://thedowtheory.com">thedowtheory.com</a></span></p><p></p>The Dow Theoristhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05344444810007324303noreply@blogger.com0