Dow Theory Update for September 3: Precious metals closed up but remain beneath last recorded highs

 Stocks still caught in secondary reaction

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today on this blog.

The SPY, Transports, and Industrials closed up. Last Friday, the Transports made a lower low unconfirmed by the SPY and Industrials. The longer non-confirmation persists, the higher the odds for the end of the secondary reaction.

The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

The secondary is bearish, which implies an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, as explained here.

Today’s volume was higher than Friday’s. Since stocks closed up, expanding volume has a bullish connotation, as higher prices were confirmed by volume. I’d label current volume readings as neutral.

Gold and Silver

SLV, and GLD closed up. For the reasons I explained here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

GDX and SIL closed up. SIL and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are unambiguously in a primary bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bullish as well.

Here you have the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the only markets with suggested open long positions.

 

DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		06/24/2013	157.06
Bull market signaled		07/18/2013	168.87
Last close		09/03/2013	164.39
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			157.06
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-2.65%	4.67%	7.52%

DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		06/26/2013	10.59
Bull market signaled		08/14/2013	15.36
Last close		09/03/2013	15.49
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low		06/26/2013	10.59
Unrealized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
0.85%	46.27%	45.04%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		06/26/2013	22.22
Bull market signaled		08/14/2013	28.7
Last close		09/03/2013	28.4
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low		06/26/2013	22.22
Unrealized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-1.05%	27.81%	29.16%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist