No change in trends.
Last weekend I posted this article which makes clear
the beauty of the Dow Theory at keeping drawdowns and losses under control. You
can read it here.
US Stocks
The SPY, the
Industrials and the Transports closed down.
The secondary
trend is also bullish for the reasons explained here.
Today’s volume was substantially lower than Friday’s,
which is bullish, as lower prices were not joined by expanding volume. I still
see the overall pattern of volume as neutral, as I explained here.
Gold and
Silver
SLV and GLD
closed down. For the reasons I explained here, I feel the
primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed
the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend
was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The
secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend),
as explained here.
Here, I
explained that GLD and SLV set up for a primary bull market signal. However, a
setup is not the same as the “real thing," namely the primary bull market;
thus, many “setups” do not materialize and until the secondary reaction closing
highs are jointly broken up, no primary bull market will be signaled.
SIL and GDX
closed down. SIL and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are unambiguously in a primary
bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here.
The secondary
trend is bearish, which is tantamount to saying that there is an ongoing
secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, for the reasons given here.
Here you have
the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the only markets with
suggested open long positions.
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
SPY | |||
Bull market started | 06/24/2013 | 157.06 | |
Bull market signaled | 07/18/2013 | 168.87 | |
Last close | 09/23/2013 | 169.93 | |
Current stop level: Secondary reaction low | 163.33 | ||
Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
0.63% | 8.19% | 3.39% |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
SIL | |||
Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 15.36 | |
Last close | 09/23/2013 | 13.48 | |
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
-12.24% | 27.29% | 45.04% | |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
GDX | |||
Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 28.7 | |
Last close | 09/23/2013 | 25.17 | |
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
-12.30% | 13.28% | 29.16% |
Sincerely,
The Dow
Theorist
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