Friday, September 13, 2013

Dow Theory Update for September 13: Precious metals arrest their decline




Trends unchanged for stocks and precious metals


Chinese stock market

Yesterday I posted that, according to the Dow Theory, a primary bull market had been signaled for Chinese stocks. During this weekend I plan to post more details about such primary bull market signal.

US Stocks

The SPY, the Industrials and Transports closed up.

The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

The secondary is bearish, which implies an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, as explained here.
 
Today’s volume was smaller than yesterday’s, which is bearish as higher prices did not attract higher volume. The overall pattern of volume remains neutral, since bullish and bearish volume days alternate and I cannot discern a clear pattern. In any instance, you make or lose money by price action, and thus, volume, while slightly increasing the odds of a given trade, is of secondary importance. Here you have an updated volume chart:

Volume is not clear to me


Gold and Silver

SLV closed and GLD closed barely up. For the reasons I explained here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

SIL and GDX closed modestly up. SIL and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are unambiguously in a primary bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bullish as well.

Here you have the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the only markets with suggested open long positions.

 

DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
06/24/2013 157.06
Bull market signaled
07/18/2013 168.87
Last close
09/13/2013 169.33
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

157.06




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




0.27% 7.81% 7.52%


 
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL




SIL
Bull market started
06/26/2013 10.59
Bull market signaled
08/14/2013 15.36
Last close
09/13/2013 14.13
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low
06/26/2013 10.59




Unrealized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-8.01% 33.43% 45.04%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX




GDX
Bull market started
06/26/2013 22.22
Bull market signaled
08/14/2013 28.7
Last close
09/13/2013 25.63
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low
06/26/2013 22.22




Unrealized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-10.70% 15.35% 29.16%


Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

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