Trends unchanged for stocks and precious metals
Chinese stock market
Yesterday I posted that, according to the Dow Theory,
a primary bull market had been signaled for Chinese stocks. During this weekend
I plan to post more details about such primary bull market signal.
US Stocks
The SPY, the Industrials and Transports closed up.
The secondary is bearish, which implies an ongoing secondary reaction
against the primary bullish trend, as explained here.
Today’s volume was smaller than yesterday’s, which is bearish as higher
prices did not attract higher volume. The overall pattern of volume remains neutral,
since bullish and bearish volume days alternate and I cannot discern a clear
pattern. In any instance, you make or lose money by price action, and thus,
volume, while slightly increasing the odds of a given trade, is of secondary
importance. Here you have an updated volume chart:
Volume is not clear to me |
Gold and Silver
SLV closed and GLD closed barely up. For the reasons I explained here,
I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here
I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The
primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here.
The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish
trend), as explained here.
SIL and GDX closed modestly up. SIL and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are
unambiguously in a primary bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here. The secondary
trend is bullish as well.
Here you have the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the
only markets with suggested open long positions.
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
SPY | |||
Bull market started | 06/24/2013 | 157.06 | |
Bull market signaled | 07/18/2013 | 168.87 | |
Last close | 09/13/2013 | 169.33 | |
Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 157.06 | ||
Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
0.27% | 7.81% | 7.52% |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
SIL | |||
Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 15.36 | |
Last close | 09/13/2013 | 14.13 | |
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
-8.01% | 33.43% | 45.04% | |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
GDX | |||
Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 28.7 | |
Last close | 09/13/2013 | 25.63 | |
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
-10.70% | 15.35% | 29.16% |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
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