Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Dow Theory Update for Feb 13: Gold and silver down



 Stocks mostly up


Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.

The SPY and Transports closed up. The Industrials closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.

Volume was up. Since today it was an up day, it has a bullish connotation. For the reasons stated here, I see the overall pattern of volume turning bearish (at least for the short term, let’s say 2-3 weeks).


Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) closed down. As you can see, investing along the primary trend can be boring. On December 20, the Dow Theory, by signaling a primary bear market, told us that the safest course of action was to stay on the sidelines. Since that date, the market condition has not changed, and no action was required.

The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

GDX (gold miners ETF) and SLV (silver miners ETF) closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.

 

Data for February 13, 2013





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135,7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146,06
Last close
02/13/2013 152,15
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

135,7




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




4,17% 12,12% 7,63%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149,46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160,54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161,16
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162,6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0,39% 7,83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25,63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28,92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29,95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0,28% 13,15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17,08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21,83
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 21,69
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/15/2012 21,87




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0,64% 26,99% 27,81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX





GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39,56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47,77
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 44,56
Current stop level: Sec React low
12/05/2012 45,35




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-6,72% 12,64% 20,75%



Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist


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