Dow Theory Update for Feb 7: Inconclusive day with no change in trends

 Precious metals continue aimless.

I am finishing a new post for this Dow Theory blog, which will continue the series I started with my post “How often does the Dow Theory outperform buy and hold?” In the next issue, I will focus on the secular 1966-1981 bear market. I will look under the magnifier the way the Dow Theory behaved under such a terrible bear market. The conclusions are truly encouraging and prove that the Dow Theory really provides the investor with an edge.

Today was an indecisive day. The SPY and Industrials closed down. The Transports closed up. The primary and secondary trend of the market remains bullish. 

Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since, albeit mildly, it was a down day, contracting volume has a bullish implication.  I’d label the overall pattern of volume as neutral.

Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) closed down. More meandering. The primary trend and  secondary trend remain bearish.

GDX closed up, and SIL closed down. The primary trend and secondary trend remain bearish. I specially dislike that all the price action is occurring below the level that defined the primary bear market signal. The fact that these two ETFs are unable to even rally for some time above prior relevant lows shows that distribution is more likely than accumulation right now. Here you have an updated chart.

SIL and GDX remain bearish. SIL displays greater relative strength (red line SIL/GDX ratio)

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

Data for February 7, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135,7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146,06
Last close		02/07/2013	150,96
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135,7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
3,35%	11,25%	7,63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149,46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160,54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161,16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162,6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0,39%	7,83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25,63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28,92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29,95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0,28%	13,15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17,08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21,83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21,69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21,87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0,64%	26,99%	27,81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39,56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47,77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44,56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45,35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6,72%	12,64%	20,75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist