Thursday, February 7, 2013

Dow Theory Update for Feb 7: Inconclusive day with no change in trends



 Precious metals continue aimless.


I am finishing a new post for this Dow Theory blog, which will continue the series I started with my post “How often does the Dow Theory outperform buy and hold? In the next issue, I will focus on the secular 1966-1981 bear market. I will look under the magnifier the way the Dow Theory behaved under such a terrible bear market. The conclusions are truly encouraging and prove that the Dow Theory really provides the investor with an edge.

Today was an indecisive day. The SPY and Industrials closed down. The Transports closed up. The primary and secondary trend of the market remains bullish. 

Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since, albeit mildly, it was a down day, contracting volume has a bullish implication.  I’d label the overall pattern of volume as neutral.

Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) closed down. More meandering. The primary trend and  secondary trend remain bearish.

GDX closed up, and SIL closed down. The primary trend and secondary trend remain bearish. I specially dislike that all the price action is occurring below the level that defined the primary bear market signal. The fact that these two ETFs are unable to even rally for some time above prior relevant lows shows that distribution is more likely than accumulation right now. Here you have an updated chart.

SIL and GDX remain bearish. SIL displays greater relative strength (red line SIL/GDX ratio)
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:


Data for February 7, 2013





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135,7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146,06
Last close
02/07/2013 150,96
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

135,7




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




3,35% 11,25% 7,63%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149,46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160,54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161,16
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162,6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0,39% 7,83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25,63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28,92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29,95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0,28% 13,15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL




SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17,08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21,83
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 21,69
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/15/2012 21,87




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0,64% 26,99% 27,81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39,56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47,77
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 44,56
Current stop level: Sec React low
12/05/2012 45,35




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-6,72% 12,64% 20,75%




Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist




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