Dow Theory Update for Feb 11: Gold testing recent lows

Stocks mildly down.

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.

Do you want to know how the Dow Theory fared during the secular 1966-1981 bear market? You can find the answer here.

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.

Volume was lower than Friday’s. Since it was a down day, it has a bullish connotation. In spite of today’s bullish volume, I see a bearish volume pattern forming. Thus, I see that since 31/01/2013 the overall trend of volume is down, whereas, albeit midly, the trend of prices is up. Such divergence seems to suggest that the most recent upward market action has not been supported by volume as it retreats. Look at the chart below that speaks for itself:

Volume is turning bearish. Is a secondary correction in the making?

 

Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV), once again, fell out of bed. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

SIL and GDX (the silver and gold miners ETFs) closed down. The primary trend and secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

Data for February 8, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.06
Last close		02/08/2013	151.77
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
3.91%	11.84%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.64%	26.99%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6.72%	12.64%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist