Monday, February 11, 2013

Dow Theory Update for Feb 11: Gold testing recent lows

Stocks mildly down.


Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.

Do you want to know how the Dow Theory fared during the secular 1966-1981 bear market? You can find the answer here.

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.

Volume was lower than Friday’s. Since it was a down day, it has a bullish connotation. In spite of today’s bullish volume, I see a bearish volume pattern forming. Thus, I see that since 31/01/2013 the overall trend of volume is down, whereas, albeit midly, the trend of prices is up. Such divergence seems to suggest that the most recent upward market action has not been supported by volume as it retreats. Look at the chart below that speaks for itself:

Volume is turning bearish. Is a secondary correction in the making?
 
Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV), once again, fell out of bed. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

SIL and GDX (the silver and gold miners ETFs) closed down. The primary trend and secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:


Data for February 8, 2013





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135.7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146.06
Last close
02/08/2013 151.77
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

135.7




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




3.91% 11.84% 7.63%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149.46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160.54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162.6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.39% 7.83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25.63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28.92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29.95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.28% 13.15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17.08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21.83
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/15/2012 21.87




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0.64% 26.99% 27.81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39.56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47.77
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low
12/05/2012 45.35




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-6.72% 12.64% 20.75%




Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist

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