Thursday, February 28, 2013

Dow Theory Update for Feb 28: Two days of non confirmation



 Yesterday’s higher high of the Industrials unconfirmed yet.


Special note on gold

GLD lost yesterday (Feb 27) a whopping 12.04 tonnes of gold (0.947%). Thus, inventories have been declining for 7 days in a row. All in all, inventories have declined from 1322.97 tons to 1258.4 tonnes, that is 64.57 tonnes or 4.88%.

I have written extensively about the bullishness of such an event (contrary to conventional wisdom), as you can find here and here.
 
 
Today, I’d like to add that the appetite for physical gold must be truly enormous. If we look at the pattern of inventory losses, we can see that even with ascending prices (until February 26) the trickle down continued (which implies that the price advance was not enough in order to quench demand for physical). However, yesterday’s phenomenal loss (Feb 27) coupled with a down day, implies that as soon as the price declines (even slightly) demand for physical shoots up. Thus, the pattern I see of prices and inventory changes tells me that the market for physical gold is under strain and that the modest rally of the last few days was not enough to calm the market.

So something has to give in. Either we see a big rally in paper gold in the next few weeks, or some severe dislocation is likely to occur.  

Stocks

The SPY and the Industrials closed down. The Transports closed up. Yesterday’s higher high made by the Industrials has not been confirmed yet. The longer the non confirmation persists, the higher the odds of a secondary reaction. However, it is too soon to tell.

Today’s volume was higher than yesterday’s, which makes it a bearish volume day. Thus, today we had the eighth bearish volume day in a row.

Gold and silver

GLD and SLV closed down today. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

The gold and silver miners ETFs closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:


Data for February 28, 2013





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135.7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146.06
Last close
02/28/2013 151.61
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

135.7




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




3.80% 11.72% 7.63%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149.46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160.54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162.6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.39% 7.83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25.63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28.92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29.95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.28% 13.15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17.08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21.83
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/15/2012 21.87




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0.64% 26.99% 27.81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39.56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47.77
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low
12/05/2012 45.35




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-6.72% 12.64% 20.75%









 

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

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