Monday, February 4, 2013

Dow Theory Update for Feb 4: Stocks finally down




 Precious metals mixed.




Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary in this blog.

The SPY, the Industrials and the Transports closed down. It is too soon to announce the onset of a secondary reaction (we need a pullback of at least 3% in two indices). Thus, the primary and secondary trend remains bullish until proven otherwise.

Volume was lower today than Friday’s volume. The downward movement was not confirmed by expanding volume, which has a bullish implication. The overall pattern of volume is subtly degrading (in the very short term). Here you have an updated chart. If you look at it, you will see that the latest pivot had bearish volume implications. 

Is volume turning bearish?
 
Gold (GLD) closed up, and silver (SLV) closed down. As you can see the Dow Theory has nothing to do with short-term trading as both the primary and secondary trend remains bearish (almost from time immemorial since almost 2 months looks like eternity for short term traders).

GDX closed up whereas its silver peer SIL (silver miners ETF) closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:


Data for February 4, 2013





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135,7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146,06
Last close
02/04/2013 149,54
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

135,7




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




2,38% 10,20% 7,63%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149,46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160,54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161,16
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162,6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0,39% 7,83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25,63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28,92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29,95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0,28% 13,15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17,08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21,83
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 21,69
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/15/2012 21,87




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0,64% 26,99% 27,81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39,56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47,77
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 44,56
Current stop level: Sec React low
12/05/2012 45,35




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-6,72% 12,64% 20,75%



Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist



No comments:

Post a Comment