Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Dow Theory update for Sept 26: Finally, we get a 3% pullback



However, precious metals still resilient


The three stock indices I monitor closed down for the day and we get some news which I would label of “tertiary” importance.

I see three kinds of movements. The first is the primary trend or primary movement which may span more than one year. The second one is the secondary trend or secondary movement which may be aligned with the primary trend or may be contrary to it, in which case we talk of a “secondary reaction”. Secondary movements may last from two weeks to several months.  While not officially labeled as a “movement” the third minor movement are rallies and pullback which, under Dow Theory must meet two requirements to be labeled as such: Firstly, it must have a magnitude of at least 3%; secondly, it must break previous minor lows (highs). By “minor” low I mean a recent low (high) not pertaining to a secondary reaction.

Today, the SPY has closed at 142.79 and, hence, has experienced a pullback of 3.47% from its preceding high at 147.24. The Transports closed at 4913.52 and have retraced 6.15% from their preceding high at 5215.97. At the same time both indices have broken previous minor lows (SPY: 09/10/2012 low at 143.51 and Transports 09/05/2012 low at 4951.07. The Industrials have refused to either retrace 3% or break a previous low.

So we can say that “officially” we have a pullback or decline exceeding 3% and it has been confirmed by two indices. However, a decline like this doesn’t qualify as a secondary reaction yet because it must have a minimum duration of 10 trading days. Thus, we still have to wait. But one thing is clear, under Dow Theory when two indices break preceding lows and the down movement exceeds 3% it is a bearish sign implying that a secondary correction might be developing. Please mind that when I say “a bearish sign” I don’t mean that the primary trend has turned bearish. I only say that it has a short term bearish implication. Thus, such minor pullbacks or rallies under Dow Theory tend to be more useful for the short term trader than for the long term investor aligned with the primary trend of the market.

Volume was slightly lower than yesterday’s and since it was a clear down day, this has bullish implications.

As to the gold and silver markets and their miners, I was surprised to see that only gold closed down for the day. Silver and both miners ETFs closed higher for the day. Thus, the precious metals universe has hitherto refused to even witness a pullback under Dow Theory because no previous lows have been violated yet.  So no even a “tertiary” down movement. I’d label today’s action in the PMs universe as bullish long term.

Conclusion: Don't be fooled by the bearish comentaries you will read everywhere. It has taken 7 trading days for the SPY to lose 3% and qualify as a decline under Dow Theory (movements not exceeding 3% are to be ignored under Dow Theory). The primary trend, and for now, the secondary trend remain bullish. And as you know from other posts, I'm eagerly waiting for a full-fledged secondary reaction to arrive. 

And now the figures for today of the markets I monitor:


Data for September 26, 2012



DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY



Bull market started 06/04/2012
Bull market signaled 06/29/2012
Last close
09/26/2012
Current stop level: Bear mkt low



Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %



5,28% 11,86% 6,25%



DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



Bull market started 05/16/2012
Bull market signaled 08/22/2012
Last close
09/26/2012
Current stop level: Bear mkt low



Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %



5,76% 13,60% 7,41%



DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



Bull market started 06/28/2012
Bull market signaled 08/22/2012
Last close
09/26/2012
Current stop level: Bear mkt low



Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %



13,66% 28,25% 12,84%



DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



Bull market started 07/24/2012
Bull market signaled 09/04/2012
Last close
09/26/2012
Current stop level: Bear mkt low



Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %



10,44% 41,16% 27,81%



DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



Bull market started 05/16/2012
Bull market signaled 09/04/2012
Last close
06/26/2012
Current stop level: Bear mkt low



Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %



9,69% 32,46% 20,75%




Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist.

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