Friday, September 7, 2012

Dow Theory market update for Sept 7, 2012: No changes. Both primary and secondary movement bullish.

Well, nothing has changed since my last post.

The Dow Theory primary bull market signals we detected in the precious metals, the precious metals miners (ETFs) and, more importantly, the stock market remain fully in force.

Both the primary and the secondary trend remain bullish under the Dow Theory

An image is more worth than a thousand words, so I give you some updated charts that speak for themselves.

First the stock market:

Under Dow Theory the market still bullish

See that today’s volume was down. A breather is becoming due.

Secondly, the Gold and Silver ETFs.

Under Dow Theory SLV and GLD solidly bullish. Now overextended. Silver still leading the parade
Please mind that silver is leading the parade. Such display of relative strength tells us a lot about the “risk off” mode. Better not to argue with the markets.

Thirdly, the gold and silver miners ETFs.

The Silver and Gold miners very bullish under Dow Theory.  Silver miners stronger
 Again we see that the silver universe displays more relative strength than the golden universe. If the end of the world were nigh the silver universe should be the weaker brother.

And last, and this time least (it is less important), we see that the gold junior miners still display greater strength relative to their senior brothers. However, it seems that the seniors are catching up. 

The Gold Junior Miners also in a primary bull market as per Dow Theory.

The conclusions I posted here remain fully in force, namely:

  The stock market is in a bull market since June 29, 2012.
  1.  The stock market is in a bull market since June 29, 2012.
  2.   Gold and Silver are in a bull market since June 28, 2012 (remark: the bull market was signaled by Dow Theory on August 22, but the lowest point of the move was made on June 28 and since that date the bull market got started. However, it was not tradable until August 22). 
  3.  The GDXJ/GDX ratio is in favor of the juniors since June 28, 2012. 
  4.  Gold and silver miners are in a bull market since May 16, 2012. 
  5.   SIL/GDX ratio clearly favors silver stocks.

In my opinion the market seems to say that liquidity will lift all boats. Definitely, it is not a market to short.

If time constraints allow me, I'll post a lighter weekend post with some reflections as to the skepticism surrounding this bull market and how it costs dearly to most investors. 

Have a wonderful weekend. The markets have closed. Time to decompress.

The Dow Theorist

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