Talk about
resilience!! The long awaited secondary reaction hasn’t materialized yet, all
the big declines of today notwithstanding.
Today all the markets we monitor closed down. However,
as I noted yesterday, not even a minor insignificant low has been broken yet. I
quote from yesterday’s post which you can find here
However, the
decline experienced until now is so mild that even the last minor recorded lows
(they don’t even qualify as “reaction lows”, just pure and simple “lows”) of
09/10/2012 have not been broken yet. In other words, under Dow Theory we have
not gotten even a tiny “pullback”; much less a secondary correction (for now).
Volume has been bearish. We had a down day and volume
increased. Thus, two of the last three days have witnessed bearish volume.
While volume is always of secondary importance, it might be hinting us that the
long awaited secondary reaction is coming. However, we have to wait for the
price action and we should not overlook that until very recently volume was
impressively bullish. Take a look by yourself in the chart below (blue arrows
denote bullishness and red arrows bearishness)
 |
| Volume starting to get bearish. The monster volume of last Friday may is not to be ignored |
As to gold, silver and their miners SIL and GDX all of
them closed down for the day but, as with stocks, no technical damage, not even
of secondary proportions, has been made yet.
Hence, the “5 Reasons why I consider the stock market in a primary bull market “ which you can find here remain fully valid.
I haven’t forgotten the BLV /GLD ratio. It is refusing to turn bearish (gold stronger) and, contrary to mass opinion, it seems that neither the USD nor the US Treasuries are ready to take a nosedive.
Here you have the figures corresponding to the markets I monitor for the day.
| Data for September 25, 2012 | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | ||
| Bull market started | 06/04/2012 | |
| Bull market signaled | 06/29/2012 | |
| Last close | 09/25/2012 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % |
| 5,88% | 12,49% | 6,25% |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | ||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | |
| Last close | 09/25/2012 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % |
| 6,37% | 14,26% | 7,41% |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | ||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | |
| Last close | 09/25/2012 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % |
| 13,00% | 27,51% | 12,84% |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | ||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | |
| Last close | 09/25/2012 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % |
| 9,30% | 39,70% | 27,81% |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | ||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | |
| Last close | 09/25/2012 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % |
| 9,21% | 31,88% | 20,75% |
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