Dow Theory Update for February 11: Gold and Silver universe surge

And trends remain unchanged

Let’s see what the Dow Theory has in store for us today.

US stocks

The Transports, the Industrials and the SPY closed up.

Volume was bullish as today’s volume was higher than yesterday’s.

Stocks remain at crossroads, as explained here: Either a primary bear market will be signaled if they swoon or the primary bull market will be reconfirmed if they break above the last recorded closing highs. Here you have an updated chart. Keep an eye on the blue and red horizontal lines.

Dissection of al relevant juncture

The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17^th and November 13th, for the reasons given here and here.

The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against primary bull market), as explained here.

Gold and Silver

SLV and GLD closed up. For the reasons I explained here, and more recently here, the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

On a statistical basis the primary bear market for GLD and SLV is getting old. More than one year since the bear market signal was flashed has elapsed. However, I am extremely skeptical as to the predictive power of statistics. I prefer price action to guide me, and the Dow Theory tells me that the primary trend remains bearish until reversed.

Furthermore, the June 27, 2013 lows remain untouched. The longer this situation lasts, the higher the odds that something might be changing. But I wait for the verdict of price action.

As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, SIL and GDX closed up. The secondary trend is bullish, as explained here. In spite of short term bullish accomplishments, SIL and GLD are not in a primary bull market.

The primary trend for SIL and GDX remains, nonetheless, bearish, as was profusely explained here and here.

Here you have the figures for the SPY which represents the only market with a suggested open long position:

 

Data for February 11, 2014
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		06/24/2013	157.06
Bull market signaled		07/18/2013	168.87
Last close		02/11/2014	181.98
Current stop level: Secondary reaction low			174.17
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
7.76%	15.87%	None

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist