And trends remain unchanged.
Today is going to be a short post on this Dow Theory blog.
The SPY, DIA and Industrials closed down on increasing volume (which is bearish).
However, trends remain unchanged.
The stock market remains caught in a technically complicated juncture. If the February lows were violated a primary bear market would be signaled. On the other hand, if the last recorded closing highs where broken out, the primary bull market would be reconfirmed. You can gather more information about the current juncture, here and here.
The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th and November 13th, for the reasons given here and here.
The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against primary bull market), as explained here.
Gold and Silver
SLV and GLD closed down. For the reasons I explained here, and more recently here, and in spite of all the bullishness than now surrounds gold and silver, the primary trend remains bearish.
Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.
As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, SIL and GDX closed down. The secondary trend is bullish, as explained here. In spite of short term bullish accomplishments, SIL and GLD are not in a primary bull market.
The primary trend for SIL and GDX remains, nonetheless, bearish, as was profusely explained here and here.
Here you have the figures for the SPY which represents the only market with a suggested open long position:
|Data for February 19, 2014|
|DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY|
|Bull market started||06/24/2013||157.06|
|Bull market signaled||07/18/2013||168.87|
|Current stop level: Secondary reaction low||174.17|
|Unrlzd gain %||Tot advance since start bull mkt||Max Pot Loss %|
The Dow Theorist