Dow Theory Update for February 6: Stocks close up on unconvincing volume

Precious metals should move either way soon

Let’s begin our Dow Theory commentary for today.

US stocks

The Transports, the Industrials and the SPY closed up. Volume was bearish as today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. The overall pattern of volume remains bearish. If today’s volume had been remarkably strong, then I’d seen a change of the secondary trend as likely. However, given today’s muted volume, I tend to give the benefit of doubt to the ongoing secondary bearish reaction against the primary bull market.

The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17^th and November 13th, for the reasons given here and here.

The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against primary bull market), as explained here.

Gold and Silver

SLV closed up, and GLD closed down. For the reasons I explained here, and more recently here, the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

On a statistical basis the primary bear market for GLD and SLV is getting old. More than one year since the bear market signal was flashed has elapsed. However, I am extremely skeptical as to the predictive power of statistics. I prefer price action to guide me, and the Dow Theory tells me that the primary trend remains bearish until reversed.

Furthermore, the June 27, 2013 lows remain untouched. The longer this situation lasts, the higher the odds that something might be changing. But I wait for the verdict of price action.

As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, SIL closed up and GDX closed down. The secondary trend is bullish, as explained here.

The primary trend for SIL and GDX remains, nonetheless, bearish, as was profusely explained here and here.

Here you have the figures for the SPY which represents the only market with a suggested open long position:

 

Data for February 6, 2014
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		06/24/2013	157.06
Bull market signaled		07/18/2013	168.87
Last close		02/06/2014	177.48
Current stop level: Secondary reaction low			165.48
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
5.10%	13.00%	2.05%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist