Stocks closed up
Piece of
wisdom of Gartman, as quoted by Richard Russell.
Richard Russell,
of the Dow Theory Letters, has nailed it down. When trying to call a bottom in
gold, he wrote:
“I'm going to be
kind and say that gold has put in a base at 1350. I'm going to side with Dennis
Gartman when I say, "I don't give a
damn about manipulation, price is price, and gold just can't get started."
That’s it! Be it because of manipulation, be it
because of lack of demand paper gold is falling down. Why argue with price?
Here Russell by siding with Gartman manifests a good deal of common sense.
However, such common sense should also have been
applied to stocks when they were in the midst of the powerful cyclical bull
market that ended last week. If stocks had been going up, if the trend was up,
Russell should have heeded the clear message that the stock market was sending.
Paraphrasing Gartman, I’d say, “I don’t
give a damn about manipulation, price is price, and stocks were in a bull
market” Even if the bull market was caused by manipulation, who cares? It
is no secret that there are many vested interests in seeing a healthy stock
market. The stock market has powerful endorsers, unlike gold. If stocks went up
due to manipulation, or the FED, or for whatever reason, the truth is that there
was more demand than supply. And this is all we should care, provided we are
sure we are the rightful owners of the stocks we own (i.e. by avoiding margin
accounts, unless one is a very short term trader).
Stocks
The SPY,
Industrials, and Transports closed up.
The primary
trend and secondary trend is bearish for the reasons explained here, and further explained here.
Today’s volume
was lower than yesterday’s, which is bearish as ascending prices were not
joined by raising volume. The overall pattern of volume is bearish for the
reasons explained here. Here you have a chart that shows lots
of red arrows (bearish). You can notice that the last two days of price advance
have not been confirmed by volume, which has grown smaller and smaller.
 |
| Volume expanded during the decline and contracted during the present rally: Text-book bearish action |
Gold and Silver
SLV and GLD
closed down in a climatic way. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here; the secondary trend remains bearish
too.
GDX and SIL, the
gold and silver miners ETFs closed down. The primary trend is bearish, as
explained here and reconfirmed bearish here; the secondary trend remains bearish
too.
Eventually, one
of these primary bear market re-confirmations will be proven false. In the
meantime, it is better not to fight the trend, and wait for a primary bull
market signal in order to make a commitment on the long side.
Here you have
the figures of the markets I monitor for today, which contain no changes as we
are flat.
| Data for June 26, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Exit June 21 | 06/21/2013 | 159.07 | |
| Current stop level: Sec reaction lows | 161.27 | ||
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 8.91% | 17.22% | None. | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
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