Dow Theory Update for June 25: Stocks closed up. No change in trends

Precious metals listless.

Dow Theory and Chinese stocks

As you know, the US stock market is in a primary bear market, as I have explained here, and further explained here.  I also wrote that less than 5% was lost from peak to trough, which is outstanding timing. So I wanted to see whether the Dow Theory would have done a good job at protecting investors in the Chinese stock market. As you can guess, the Dow Theory did a remarkable good job in spotting early enough (March 13) the change of trend for Chinese stocks, as you can read here.

Stocks

The SPY, Industrials, and Transports closed up.

The primary trend and secondary trend is bearish for the reasons explained here, and further explained here.

Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s, which is bearish as ascending prices were not joined by raising volume. The overall pattern of volume is bearish for the reasons explained here.

 

Gold and Silver

SLV and GLD closed down. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here; the secondary trend remains bearish too.

GDX closed down and SIL closed up. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here; the secondary trend remains bearish too.

Eventually, one of these primary bear market re-confirmations will be proven false. In the meantime, it is better not to fight the trend, and wait for a primary bull market signal in order to make a commitment on the long side.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today, which contain no changes as we are flat. As you can see, now I talk of “realized gain” for the SPY as the trade has been closed today. My reading of the Dow Theory tells me to be flat in all markets: GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL and now the SPY. Time to sit on cash (being mindful of the dangers stalking cash in order not to be cyprused).

 

Data for June 25, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.06
Exit June 21		06/21/2013	159.07
Current stop level: Sec reaction lows			161.27
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
8.91%	17.22%	None.
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.64%	26.99%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6.72%	12.64%	20.75%

 Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist