Thursday, June 13, 2013

Dow Theory Update for June 13: Stocks dodge the bear market bullet. At least for one more day




 Secondary trend for gold and silver miners ETFs continues bullish


Let’s see what the Dow Theory has in store for us today.

Stocks

The SPY, Industrials, and Transports closed up. The primary trend is bullish, and the secondary trend is bearish (ongoing secondary reaction).

In my last two posts, I insisted that the market should stage a rally off the lows or else….The “else” is a primary bear market signal whose details were given here.

I also wrote yesterday that today could be the last chance to show technical strength, and thereby avoid the threatening primary bear market signal. Well, today the stock market displayed some strength. While it is still perfectly possible that the 06/05/2013 secondary reaction lows will be violated, today’s action has given stocks a breather.

Today’s volume was higher than yesterday's, which makes it a bullish volume day. If I were to be guided exclusively by volume, I’d dare to say that the action of the last three days gives some hope to the bullish case because:

1.  The last two days were bullish volume days.
2.  The last pivot low was bullish as volume contracted (more explanations here). 

Here you have an updated chart displaying the volume patterns.


Volume readings have improved in the last three days
 
Gold and Silver

GLD closed down, and SLV closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETFs, closed up. The primary trend is bearish, and the secondary trend is bullish for the reasons given here.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today. Please mind that thanks to the ongoing secondary reaction, our Dow Theory trailing stop has been considerable raised. 

 

Data for June 13, 2013






DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135.7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146.06
Last close
06/13/2013 164.21
Current stop level: Sec reaction lows

161.27




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




12.43% 21.01%    None.








DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149.46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160.54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162.6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.39% 7.83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25.63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28.92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29.95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.28% 13.15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17.08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21.83
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/15/2012 21.87




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0.64% 26.99% 27.81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39.56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47.77
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low
12/05/2012 45.35




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-6.72% 12.64% 20.75%





Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

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