Follow up to the Dow Theory update for Oct 3
As I said earlier
this evening I see that the SPY and the Industrials are forming a so called “line”.
What’s a line?
I will use Rhea’s
definition to understand what a “line” is under Dow Theory. According to him:
“A line is a price movement extending two or three weeks or longer,
during which period the price variation of both averages move within a range of
approximately five per cent”
“Lines” or trading
ranges imply a period of accumulation or distribution. If the upper boundary is
broken, it has a bullish implication of secondary character. If its lower boundary
is violated, it has a bearish implication of secondary character.
The five per cent
guideline doesn’t mean that the trading range must equal this amount; rather 5%
is the limit. If this percentage is exceeded then we are dealing with a
full-fledged secondary reaction against the primary trend. Thus, narrower
trading ranges qualify as a “line” as well.
Here you have a
chart displaying the lines. The blue rectangles on the Industrials and the SPY
are the “lines”.
Under Dow Theory the SPY and the Transports have formed a line |
Rhea advised the Dow Theorist to keep an eye on volume inside the line. This is what I do:
Volume inside the line slightly bearish: Suggests distribution |
Here you can find
the detailed calculations:
SPY | INDUSTRIALS | TRANSPORTS | |
High point | 147.24 | 13596.93 | 5215.97 |
Low point | 143.29 | 13413.51 | 4910.59 |
% from high to low | 2.76% | 1.37% | 6.22% |
So what are my
conclusions under Dow Theory?
1.
It is clear that the Industrials
and the SPY are forming a line. Such line is undisputed since it has been
confirmed by two indices.
2.
The Transports are not forming a
line since its movement exceeded 5%.
3.
This line began 13 trading days
ago, so it clearly fulfills Rhea’s duration requirements.
4. In the last 13 days, we have had 7
bullish volume days and 6 bearish volume days (including a monster bearish
volume day on 09/21/2012). However, in the last 9 days bearish volume has
clearly prevailed.
Under Dow Theory,
it is not possible to anticipate whether the upper boundary or lower boundary
will be broken. Furthermore, it is inconsequential to us, followers of the
primary trend. However, once it is broken we will be able to derive conclusions
as to the likely intermediate trend of the market. Thus, if the lower boundary
is violated, we will be able to announce that the market is experiencing a
secondary reaction against the primary trend. Conversely, if the upper boundary
is broken, then we will conclude that the secondary movement is bullish and
confirming the primary bullish trend.
And here you have the figures for the day:
Data for October 3, 2012 | |||
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
SPY | |||
Bull market started | 06/04/2012 | 128.1 | |
Bull market signaled | 06/29/2012 | 136.1 | |
Last close | 10/03/2012 | 145.09 | |
Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 128.1 | ||
Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
6.61% | 13.26% | 6.25% | |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
GLD | |||
Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
Last close | 10/03/2012 | 172.41 | |
Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 149.46 | ||
Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
7.39% | 15.36% | 7.41% | |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
SLV | |||
Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
Last close | 10/03/2012 | 33.51 | |
Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 25.63 | ||
Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
15.87% | 30.75% | 12.84% | |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
SIL | |||
Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
Last close | 10/03/2012 | 24.72 | |
Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 17.08 | ||
Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
13.24% | 44.73% | 27.81% | |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
GDX | |||
Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
Last close | 10/03/2012 | 52.72 | |
Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 39.56 | ||
Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
10.36% | 33.27% | 20.75% |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
Hi Dow Theorist,
ReplyDeleteOne question regarding lines. Can one index form a line while the other enter a secondary reaction mode?
In such a case, when will the 2 indices confirm their move and how can we deduce appropriate signals?
Thanks,
Fil
DeleteThe principle of confirmation is basic under Dow Theory.
Hence to talk properly of a line, at least two indices must be range-bound by max. 5%.
If one index is range-bound (less than 5%), and the other one is down (or up) more than 5%, then we don’t have a “line” under Dow Theory since confirmation is lacking.
The same applies to the index that has witnessed a move exceeding 5% whose move is unconfirmed by at least one index. In such a case, we cannot say that we are seeing a secondary reaction.
In the case you describe, nothing would have happened under Dow Theory. One index would be range-bound but unconfirmed and the other one trending stronger up (down) but lacking confirmation.
Regards,
The Dow Theorist.