Dow Theory update for Oct 11: Mixed day. No changes.

Primary trend remains bullish; secondary trend bearish.

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory analysis for today.

The stock market was indecisive. The SPY closed up, and the Transports and Industrials closed down for the day. So there are no changes from yesterday’s assessment under Dow Theory.

Later today, I will post in this Dow Theory blog more in-depth commentary as to the meaning of this secondary reaction, how to time an entry into it (for those latecomers) and what to do about the Transports. I am not ducking this issue, and you will be surprised by my answer. To deal with all these subjects rigorously takes a good deal of effort.

I really don’t know what to do about today’s volume, since it’s difficult for me to ascribe the day as “up” or “down” as we had mixed readings from the three indices we monitor. However, if I give more weight to the SPY (which is logical since it is the largest in terms of companies and more importantly capitalization), then it was a bullish day, since volume was up in an up day.

As to the gold and silver markets and their respective miners ETFs, we had a predominantly bullish day. Only silver closed down for the day. Technically, all the PMs universe remains caught in a tight trading range. Consequently the primary and secondary trend remains bullish.

Here are the figures for today of the markets I monitor:

 

Data for October 11, 2012
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		06/04/2012	128.1
Bull market signaled		06/29/2012	136.1
Last close		10/11/2012	143.36
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			128.1
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
5.33%	11.91%	6.25%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Last close		10/11/2012	171.32
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			149.46
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
6.71%	14.63%	7.41%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Last close		10/11/2012	32.9
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			25.63
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
13.76%	28.37%	12.84%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Last close		10/11/2012	24.73
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			17.08
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
13.28%	44.79%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Last close		10/11/2012	52.52
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			39.56
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
9.94%	32.76%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist