Dow Theory Update for Oct 18: Transports still stronger.

No changes in trends.

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory analysis for today in this blog.

Our headline today is again the Transports. Whilst the SPY and the Industrials closed lower today, the Transports displaying greater relative strength managed to edge higher for the day. It has had an up close 5 days in a row.

Richard Russell has also noticed that the Transports are becoming stronger. In his yesterday’s “Dow Theory Letters," Russell notes that the transports are gaining strength. More importantly, Russell draws an important conclusion, namely that this is a bullish sign. This Dow Theory blog already warned you about the increasing strength of the Transports on Oct 4 as you can read here.

So gradually Richard Russell and his “Dow Theory Letters” are becoming more bullish.

As I wrote yesterday, a down day was due. Technically, nothing changed.

Volume was bearish since we had a down day, and volume was higher than yesterday’s.

As to gold, silver and their miners all of them closed down today. However, again, technically nothing changed. SIL (silver miners ETF) continues much stronger than its gold peer and by refusing to violate the 09/26/2012 lows has negated the onset of a secondary reaction.

Here you have the figures for today of the markets I monitor:

  

Data for October 18, 2012
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		06/04/2012	128.1
Bull market signaled		06/29/2012	136.1
Last close		10/18/2012	145.82
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			128.1
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
7.14%	13.83%	6.25%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Last close		10/18/2012	168.79
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			149.46
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
5.14%	12.93%	7.41%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Last close		10/18/2012	31.73
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			25.63
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
9.72%	23.80%	12.84%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Last close		10/18/2012	24.55
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			17.08
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
12.46%	43.74%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Last close		10/18/2012	51.52
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			39.56
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
7.85%	30.23%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist. 

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