The Industrials and the SPY violated the lows of the line.
Markets were made to befuddle
as many investors as possible. However, armed with the Dow Theory, we can in
most instances avoid being fooled by the markets and be on the right side and, when occasionally wrong, keep our losses contained.
So what did the stock market today?
So what did the stock market today?
Both the SPY and the
Industrials closed down for the day.
More importantly, the
Industrials and the SPY violated the lows of the “line” I’ve been studying in
the last few days here and here
Thus, the SPY closed at 143.28,
and the lows of the line were established at 143.29. So by a mere cent, the SPY
violated its line lows.
More decisively the
Industrials closed at 13344.97 clearly violating the lows of the line
established at 13414.51.
Since we have witnessed a joint
violation of the lows such a movement has credence under the Dow Theory.
What are the implications of
the confirmed breaking of the line?
The implications are clear:
The secondary trend of the market has turned unambiguously bearish. Furthermore, now we can re-qualify the all the market action occurred since 09/14/2012 as a secondary reaction. Please mind
that I am talking of the secondary trend (from 2 weeks to ca. 8 months). I am
not saying that the primary trend has turned bearish.
I will monitor the subsequent
developments of the new secondary bearish trend, since future market action is
very important in order to:
a)
Raise our stop-loss.
b)
Allow an opportunity for
latecomers to enter the market at a
decent risk reward ratio. If this sounds queer to you, please read this post: “What
should I do if I missed the Dow Theory bull signals for the SPY and GLD? Dow
Theory’s second chance: The first secondary reaction," which you can
find here.
Please mind that the
Transports closed up for today. Again and for eight days in a row, the
Transports are displaying more relative strength.
Speaking about the Transports.
In my Oct 8 post “What should I do if I missed the Dow Theory bull signals
for the SPY? Dow Theory’s second chance: The Transports” which you can find
here
I was suggesting a long
position in the Transports for latecomers wishing to participate in the primary
bull market in stocks.
Have been I proven wrong? Was
ill-timed this piece of advice?
The answer: Tomorrow.
I want
you to think it over. Just a hint: Think about the primary trend and until I
give the answer don’t think about selling out.
Here you have an updated chart
displaying the breaking of the line:
Under Dow Theory the secondary trend turned bearish. Both the SPY and the Industrials violated the lows of the line |
Volume was bearish since it
was a down day on stronger volume. In the last 14 trading days, we have had eight
days of bearish volume. While this is not conclusive in itself, one thing is
clear: Short term volume is not supporting the bullish case. However, when I
say “short term," term”, I mean “very short term” (i.e. the next few
days). If we look at the longer-term pattern
of volume pre and post secondary reaction (now we can officially call it by its
name), we’ll see that the primary bull market swing was on higher volume than
the secondary reaction. This is typical the typical volume pattern of primary
bull markets: Volume tends to expand with increasing prices and to contract on
declines.
Therefore, while being
somewhat bearish in the very short term, the pattern of volume conforms to classical
Dow Theory and seems to suggest that the breaking of the lines is merely
heralding a secondary reaction.
Here you have an updated chart
of volume:
Volume: Short term bearish. Long term confirming the primary bull market |
As to gold, silver and their
miners, we had a mixed day. Gold closed slightly down. Silver slightly up. Conversely,
gold shares closed up and silver shares down. However, no technical damage has
been made.
Conclusions: Don’t press the
panic button. The market continues in a primary bull market, and a secondary
reaction is something to be welcomed as it is healthy (like a summer storm). Markets
cannot go up in a straight line. As to gold and silver, we cannot even talk of
a secondary reaction. Don’t forget that the action of October 4th,
was very bullish for gold and silver. Remember what I wrote in this post.
And here you have the numbers
for today:
Data for October 10, 2012 | |||
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
SPY | |||
Bull market started | 06/04/2012 | 128.1 | |
Bull market signaled | 06/29/2012 | 136.1 | |
Last close | 10/10/2012 | 143.28 | |
Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 128.1 | ||
Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
5.28% | 11.85% | 6.25% | |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
GLD | |||
Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
Last close | 10/10/2012 | 170.84 | |
Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 149.46 | ||
Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
6.42% | 14.30% | 7.41% | |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
SLV | |||
Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
Last close | 10/10/2012 | 32.95 | |
Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 25.63 | ||
Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
13.93% | 28.56% | 12.84% | |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
SIL | |||
Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
Last close | 10/10/2012 | 24.34 | |
Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 17.08 | ||
Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
11.50% | 42.51% | 27.81% | |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
GDX | |||
Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
Last close | 10/10/2012 | 52.48 | |
Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 39.56 | ||
Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
9.86% | 32.66% | 20.75% |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
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