Dow Theory Update for Oct 23: Gold and silver miners enter secondary reaction.

Markets down. Transports up.

Let’s begin with our Dow Theory commentary in this blog.

The SPY and Industrials closed clearly down. However, the Transports defying gravity force managed to close up for the day.

So the secondary reaction follows its course. It is good to remember that the amount hitherto corrected is modest if we are to compare with normal parameters for secondary reactions. Even though in real time, it looks like the end of the world and it is not pleasant to see.

As I said the amount retraced is modest. From its 10/05/2012 high of 13610.15 the Industrials have merely lost 3.73%.  If I get strictly technical under Dow Theory, I should measure the amount corrected from the last joint recorded highs, given that those of the Industrials of 10/05/2012 were not confirmed. On 09/14/2012 the Industrials closed at 13593.27. Measured from the last jointly recorded highs the Industrials have merely lost 3.61%

The SPY has retraced a mere 3.95% from its 09/14/2012 highs of 147.24.

The Transports, better not to talk about them, since they are going up.

In other words, I don’t know what tomorrow will bring but what I do know is that in spite of all the pessimism that surrounds us, this secondary reaction has been muted. A “normal” correction may witness price declines of 6-7% from the top. We are very far from that point.

Even I can get emotional because it is unpleasant to see the market going down. However, cold numbers are telling another story: Until now, we are far from seeing a crash, all the anniversaries notwithstanding. By the way, if you ask yourself how Dow theorists fared on the October 19, 1987 crash, you should read this post “Special Dow Theory issue: Revisiting the 1987 crash” which you can read here.

 The real bearish note for today was volume: It was higher than yesterday’s so it has bearish implications as it was a down day. Furthermore, today close in the SPY was lower than the previous pivot low of 10/12/2012. I’ve circled with ellipses both pivots so that you can see them better. Since volume today was higher than at the previous pivot low, this is a bearish sign. My gut feeling tells me that the market is short-term oversold and so much explosive volume on the downside tends to beget a 1-2-day  opposite movement. However, technically the message of volume short term (2-10 days) is getting unambiguously bearish. Today’s bearish pivot low is not a good omen short term. Here you have an updated chart of the volume patterns. Remember that one red arrows denote bearish volume whilst a blue arrow implies bullish volume. A second arrow denotes bearish or bullish volume at pivot points. 

Last pivot low bearish. Lower low on higher volume

 

What happened to the precious metals' universe?

All of them closed down today.

Gold and silver remain in their secondary reaction.

The big news is that gold and silver miners ETFs joined the bearish parade by also signaling a secondary reaction.

Later today or tomorrow I will write a special issue on this Dow Theory blog concerning the details of this secondary reaction.

However, primary trend for both gold, silver and their miners ETF remains bullish.

And here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 

Data for October 23, 2012
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		06/04/2012	128.1
Bull market signaled		06/29/2012	136.1
Last close		10/23/2012	141.42
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			128.1
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
3.91%	10.40%	6.25%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Last close		10/23/2012	165.43
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			149.46
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
3.05%	10.69%	7.41%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Last close		10/23/2012	30.68
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			25.63
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
6.09%	19.70%	12.84%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Last close		10/23/2012	24.13
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			17.08
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
10.54%	41.28%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Last close		10/23/2012	50.96
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			39.56
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
6.68%	28.82%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist.

Disclaimer: Dow Theory Investment and its author is not a financial adviser. Dow Theory Investment and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of the footer of this blog.

Dow Theory Update for Oct 22: No changes in trends.

Primary trend bullish and secondary trend bearish in stocks and precious metals.

 

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory analysis for today in this blog.

The Industrials and the SPY closed minimally up today. The Transports taking a breather closed down today. Technically, nothing has changed.

We know that trends are made by sheer price action, and that volume merely serves to qualify them. Bearing this in mind, I’d like to say what follows about volume.

Today’s volume was lower than Friday’s. Since the SPY was up, this makes a bearish volume day. The up movement was not supported by expanding volume. So we have had three bearish volume days in a row.

Today I conduct an alternative volume analysis. One based on volume at significant pivot points. I am indebted to L.A. Little for his insights into this matter. While no strict Dow Theory, Little’s insights concerning volume are worth considering.

I have put additional arrows in those pivot days. The lower arrow is the arrow you are already used to see: bearish or bullish volume day. The arrow on top represents the volume indication derived at those pivot points. Let’s get started.

The first low in this correction was made on 09/26/2012. Volume at this low was higher than the volume made on the preceding pivot low of 09/10/2012. This has a bearish implication (short term) since the downward movement in the new pivot was stronger. This is why I placed a red arrow.

From that point, the market went up until 10/05/2012. At this pivot high, volume was much lower than at the preceding pivot high of 09/14/2012. This accounts for the red arrow. A second bearish sign.

On 10/12/2012 we see a new pivot low. Volume was lower than the volume of the prior pivot low of 09/26/2012. This is a bullish sign, so I placed a blue arrow.

The last pivot high was made on 10/17/2012. Volume on that day was higher than the volume made at the preceding pivot high 10/05/2012. So I placed a blue arrow.

As to the latest low made last Friday, it is too early to tell. If today had been a down day, then I could infer more definite conclusions.

However, we can infer the following conclusions:

The first two pivots were bearish.

The last two pivots were bullish.

So whereas the overall reading is neutral, the sequence of the pivots seems to show that pattern of volume is becoming bullish. Furthermore, the high reading of volume of last Friday 10/19/2012 could well be the final exhaustion volume burst. Pity that today was not a down day! I could have derived more definite conclusions.

Bottom line:

Long term volume is bullish, since volume went up along with the primary upswing until 09/14/2012.

Volume during the secondary reaction has been mixed. But volume at pivots seems to suggest that the secondary reaction may be nearing its end.

However, I insist volume may serve to increase our accuracy on the margin. Price action is king.

Here you have an updated chart:

Volume in pivots: slightly bullish

 Gold, silver and their respective miners ETFs all of them closed up. Technically, there is no change. The secondary trend remains bearish and the primary trend bullish.

Here you have the figures for the markets I monitor.

 

Data for October 22, 2012
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		06/04/2012	128.1
Bull market signaled		06/29/2012	136.1
Last close		10/22/2012	143.41
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			128.1
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
5.37%	11.95%	6.25%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Last close		10/22/2012	167.58
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			149.46
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
4.39%	12.12%	7.41%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Last close		10/22/2012	31.39
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			25.63
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
8.54%	22.47%	12.84%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Last close		10/22/2012	24.95
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			17.08
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
14.29%	46.08%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Last close		10/22/2012	52.43
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			39.56
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
9.76%	32.53%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist.



 Disclaimer: Dow Theory Investment and its author is not a financial adviser. Dow Theory Investment and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of the footer of this blog.

A primer on secondary reactions under Dow Theory

My detailed answer to a comment left by bstart.

Bstart, an attentive reader of this blog, left an interesting comment which you can find here:

I quote bstart:

"Based on your notes and chart of DJT of http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/09/dow-theory-update-for-sept-13-new.html I interpret the SLV behavior differently. Is the following analysis right?

1.     5/16/12 - 26.37 SLV low

2. Reaction to 6/6/12 - 28.51 - higher than 6%, 10 trading days

3. From there expect pullback and move to higher highs

- Instead 6/28/12 25.63 new lower lows (primary bear continues)
- this is new leg in bear market
- look for a new secondary reaction retracing 6%, 10 trading days

4. new reaction on 7/30/12 - 27.36 (sorry for the wrong month !), 6.74%, nearly 1 month

5. pullback to 08/02/12 - 26.31

6. signal 08/16/12 - 27.37 - new bull market signal

Is the analysis right?"

My answer said that points 1 to 4 were OK.

However, where it got tricky and thorny was from point 5 onwards.

So basically, bstart is suggesting an alternative way to appraise secondary reactions, namely taking into account (in a bear market) the rally stemming from the last recorded low.

Here is my answer, which is addressed to bstart but is meant to benefit my entire readership:

Please bear in mind that appraising secondary reactions is not math. Rhea wrote:

“Probably no two students would agree on any rule for selecting and tabulating the important secondary reactions."

All Dow Theorists, past and present, agree that gauging secondary reactions is not an easy feat. Furthermore, it appears that its rules (i.e 10 trading days, etc.) are bent quite often. Even Rhea when he conducted a study of all secondary reactions that occurred until 1931, he labeled as “secondary reaction” movements that didn’t reach 10 trading days, much less the 3 weeks times he advocated in his book. Other practitioners drop the retracement requirement altogether (i.e. Martin Pring). Personally, I find that the Schannep way strikes a decent balance between respecting basic Dow Theory rules (i.e. minimum time requirement, minimum extent requirement and technical requirement) and responsiveness (i.e. by accepting 10 days and even less in very exceptional circumstances).

So, while as from point 5 I will depart from your opinion, I am not meaning that you are wrong, or I am right. Furthermore, your analysis is so well structured that you forced me to check my own analysis again. This is totally positive for us both since we strive to be good practitioners to succeed, hopefully, in the market. I don’t want to be a proud idiot.

What now follows is only applicable when I am dealing with “classical” Dow Theory (that is only two markets: GLD, SLV; DIA, IYT; etc.).

Starting point: The principle of confirmation is vital in Dow Theory.

The last rally that was in “sync” (confirmed) was the one that finished on 6/6/2012. It is not necessary that confirmation is given on the same day, but it doesn’t hurt. So the last rally (counter movement against the hitherto primary bearish trend) finished on 6/6/2012.

While we can talk loosely of “secondary reaction” in one specific market, under Dow Theory, we shouldn’t talk of a secondary reaction if there is no confirmation.

Hence, the only rally we had with confirmation was the one that finished on 6/6/2012.

It is true that SLV hit new lows on 6/28/2012. However, GLD refused to confirm. Had GLD confirmed then we’d had a new primary bear market leg, and you would be right counting the next secondary reaction from this point (but for both GLD and SLV).

Since SLV new lows were unconfirmed, the only confirmed rally I can consider is the one that started from the confirmed lows of 05/16/2012. Hence, the highs made by SLV and GLD on 06/06/2012 remain the only valid “relevant” highs.

Look at the recent gold and silver highs of Oct 4. In that day, I wrote that we had to “reset” the clock in order to count the days for a new secondary reaction. Why? Because such new highs were confirmed and hence negated importance to any previous pullback. The already incipient secondary reaction was aborted. It is the same principle in action.

So both the starting point and the ending point of a secondary reaction must be confirmed.

Back to our “secondary reaction”. To sum up:

The last confirmed bear market low (which is the starting point to count a reaction) was made on 05/16/2012. It would also have been OK if one market made its low on that day and the other on a similar date. The important thing is to look for the last confirmed lows to determine the staring point of a likely reaction (and in a bull market, the last confirmed highs, as we saw on Oct 4).

The last confirmed high was made on 6/06/2012.

This confirmed movement in both the starting point and finishing point is what I’d consider a secondary reaction.

Since SLV made a new low on 6/28/2012 never to be confirmed by GLD, this is what made refuse considering the lower high made by SLV on 07/30/2012 as the “relevant” high to be broken.

But your analysis has a big germ of truth on it. What if there is a divergence that lasts several months when, i.e. SLV continues making lower lows and GLD higher highs? Should it be still considered as the relevant high to be broken by SLV the highs made on 6/06/2012? Do secondary reaction highs become fixed or lose relevance with time? Should we consider newer, albeit lower highs, such as those of 07/30/2012 for SLV? These are legitimate questions and unluckily I have not found the answer in my Dow Theory library (I think I have all books about the subject). However, digging very deep in Rhea’s book (it dawned on me the fifth time I read it, and because I was already in the markets) there are some useful tricks that help us determine “relevant” high and low points. But this is the issue for a future post.

However, in this very specific instance, I feel that the secondary reaction highs were new and fresh enough not to suggest an alternative interpretation of the Dow Theory.

Now you could raise a valid point: “What about your analysis of the Transports you made here? In this case you, Dow Theorist, clearly accepted a lower high as the relevant high and were not so strict with the principle of confirmation.

 

My answer is as follows: When dealing with stocks, I go full steam with the Schannep “flavor” which includes three indices and merely demands (as with “classical” Dow Theory) confirmation from just two of them.

The primary bull market in stocks was signaled on June 29 when the SPY and DIA (Industrials) broke above preceding secondary reaction highs. The Transports didn’t confirm. So from this point on, I considered the Transports on their own. I didn’t need them any more in order to qualify the bull market. Since I didn't need to resort to “confirmed new lows” as the starting point of un upward secondary reaction or “confirmed new highs” as the finishing point thereof, I just focused on rallies and declines occurring in the Transports in isolation. Hence I loosely used the expression “secondary reaction” referring to the action of the Transports alone. But we have to bear in mind that the market was already in a bull market. This is why even now I am focused on the last high made by the Transports as a valid entry point for latecomers (read this post) . It is a technical valid entry point, albeit it has been determined in isolation. However, this is OK, since we know that the primary trend of the market is bullish, so with the Transports I don’t need to require triple confirmation, but merely sound technical action on its own.

 

I know a saga of posts concerning the appraising of secondary reactions under Dow Theory is due. They are vital because the more proficient we become in spotting them, the better we will be able to detect primary bull markets and to put our trailing stops.  I hope I find one day the time to do it. In the meantime, I am too busy with real-life  activity and keeping updated this blog with ongoing market action.

I do thank emails and comments that prompt me to check my premises. We all win.

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist.

Special Dow Theory issue: Revisiting the 1987 crash

The Dow Theory saved its followers.

As I promised earlier today, here are my two cents on the October 19, 1987 crash.

So, how fared those that followed the Dow Theory? Were they spared?

The answer if a clear: YES. They were spared.

In this study, I will use “classical” Dow Theory with just the Industrials and Transports. I do this because in “real time” Schannep’s improvement by including the S&P was not known yet (or at least was not known to the majority of the public since his seminal book was not published yet). More on Schannep’s book here:

However, even “classical” Dow Theory was responsive enough to keep us on the safe side of the market during the market crash.

Look at the chart below which displays the period surrounding the crash.

October 1987 Crash: The Dow Theory kept investors protected

 We can see that the highest high of the Industrials was sported on 08/25/1987 at 2722.42. The highest high of the Transports was made on 08/14/1987 at 1101.16.

From such highs a secondary reaction developed. The lows of the secondary reaction were jointly made on 09/21/1987. The Industrials’ low was 2492.82 and the Transports’ low was 1005.80. Hence, percentagewise the Industrials declined 9.21% and the Transports 9.48%. The secondary reaction lasted 18 trading days (from 08/25 to 09/21) thus fulfilling the time requirement for a secondary reaction (even for those Dow Theorists who require at least 3 weeks).

A rally ensued that exceeded 3% in both indices. Thereafter, the markets headed south. On 10/09/2012 the Industrials violated the preceding secondary reaction lows of 09/21/1987. However, the Transports didn’t confirm. So no primary bear market signal was displayed.

On 10/15/1987 the Transports violated its secondary reaction lows giving a Dow Theory primary bear signal. At the close of that day, the Transports stood at 980.24 and the Industrials at 2355.09.

Those nifty investors could have exited at the close. Those less reactive investors should have exited next 10/16/2012 (Friday) at the open. Under Dow Theory, there is no excuse for getting out later than that.

So, how much “lost” Dow Theory investors from the highest high of the Industrials to the exit point at 2355.09? Let’s do the math: (2355.09/2722.42)-1 =

-13.49% Loss for followers of the Dow Theory.

How much was to lose the market from the 2722.42 high to the 1738.74 low? Let’s do the math again: (1738.74 / 2722.42)-1 =

-36.13 % Potential loss for ordinary investors.

No need to use more letters or words. The facts speak for themselves.

And what would have been the numbers if we had used the Schannep version of the Dow Theory? The answer: Even better. According to his book, the loss would have been further reduced by 2.4% (page 114).

This is my Dow Theory way to celebrate the 25^th anniversary of the Black Monday.

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist.

Dow Theory Update for Oct 19: Happy anniversary 25 years of the 1987 Crash

 Markets celebrate black Monday by mostly going down.

Gold and silver: secondary trend turns bearish.

Later today or early tomorrow I will post in this Dow Theory blog a special issue on the 1987 stock market crash. Would the Dow Theory have kept us safe on October 19, 1987? I’ll give you the answer in a few hours.

The three markets we monitor, the Industrials, Transports and S&P (through its proxy SPY) fell in unison today. Technically, nothing changed. We remain in a primary trend, and the secondary trend remains bearish.

Today volume was bearish, since the stock market closed down and volume was higher than yesterday’s. Thus, we have had two bearish days in a row. I am deriving some interesting conclusions from volume patterns. I want to see Monday’s action in order to reach more solid conclusions.

Gold and silver both were down today. And here is the big news: A secondary reaction signal has been flashed today. 11 trading days have elapsed since the October 4^th highs jointly made by gold and silver. The decline has exceeded the minimum threshold of  3% in gold and 6% in silver. Why such percentages? Go and read this post for a full explanation.

To sum up, I now declare that gold and silver are in a secondary reaction because

1) Technical requirement fulfilled: last minor lows of 09/26/2012 have been jointly broken by the two metals.

2) Extent requirement fulfilled: Gold has had a down movement exceeding 3% and silver 6%.

3)  Time requirement fulfilled: Since the Oct 4 highs, 11 trading days have elapsed, thus exceeding the minimum time requirement under Dow Theory to qualify a pullback as an official secondary reaction.

 

Now things get really interesting. Is this the second chance given to gold and silver would-be investors to  enter belatedly the market? Those latecomers sitting on the sidelines should read my post in this Dow Theory Investment blog called “What should I do if I missed the Dow Theory bull signals for the SPY and GLD? Dow Theory’s second chance: The first secondary reaction” which you can find here

For the time being I would wait, as gold has only retraced 3.97% from the October 4th highs. I’d wait for a 6% retracement in gold and at least a 10% retracement in silver. I’ll write more about this in the coming days. Again, to understand why I say this, go and read this post.

Then you will understand why I don’t advise to jump the gun right now.

As to the gold and silver miners, SIL closed down and GDX, closed up!! Furthermore, SIL and GDX refused to break prior lows. So in the precious metals' miners universe no secondary reaction has been announced.

Here you have the figures for today of the markets I monitor.

 

Data for October 19, 2012
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		06/04/2012	128.1
Bull market signaled		06/29/2012	136.1
Last close			143.32
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			128.1
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
5.30%	11.88%	6.25%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Last close			166.97
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			149.46
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
4.01%	11.72%	7.41%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Last close			31.09
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			25.63
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
7.50%	21.30%	12.84%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Last close			24.47
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			17.08
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
12.09%	43.27%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Last close			51.73
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			39.56
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
8.29%	30.76%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist. 

Disclaimer: Dow Theory Investment and its author is not a financial adviser. Dow Theory Investment and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of the footer of this blog.

Dow Theory Update for Oct 18: Transports still stronger.

No changes in trends.

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory analysis for today in this blog.

Our headline today is again the Transports. Whilst the SPY and the Industrials closed lower today, the Transports displaying greater relative strength managed to edge higher for the day. It has had an up close 5 days in a row.

Richard Russell has also noticed that the Transports are becoming stronger. In his yesterday’s “Dow Theory Letters," Russell notes that the transports are gaining strength. More importantly, Russell draws an important conclusion, namely that this is a bullish sign. This Dow Theory blog already warned you about the increasing strength of the Transports on Oct 4 as you can read here.

So gradually Richard Russell and his “Dow Theory Letters” are becoming more bullish.

As I wrote yesterday, a down day was due. Technically, nothing changed.

Volume was bearish since we had a down day, and volume was higher than yesterday’s.

As to gold, silver and their miners all of them closed down today. However, again, technically nothing changed. SIL (silver miners ETF) continues much stronger than its gold peer and by refusing to violate the 09/26/2012 lows has negated the onset of a secondary reaction.

Here you have the figures for today of the markets I monitor:

  

Data for October 18, 2012
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		06/04/2012	128.1
Bull market signaled		06/29/2012	136.1
Last close		10/18/2012	145.82
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			128.1
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
7.14%	13.83%	6.25%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Last close		10/18/2012	168.79
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			149.46
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
5.14%	12.93%	7.41%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Last close		10/18/2012	31.73
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			25.63
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
9.72%	23.80%	12.84%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Last close		10/18/2012	24.55
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			17.08
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
12.46%	43.74%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Last close		10/18/2012	51.52
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			39.56
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
7.85%	30.23%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist. 

Disclaimer: Dow Theory Investment and its author is not a financial adviser. Dow Theory Investment and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of the footer of this blog.