Dow Theory Update for January 8: Stocks should move up quickly or….

... A secondary reaction might be in the making

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.

If you are interested in reading the 2013 Dow Theory review please go here. You’ll see that we tended to be on the right side of the market most of the time.

US stocks

The SPY, and the Transports closed up. The Industrials closed down. Days pass by and the 12/31/2013 closing highs remain untouched. The longer this persists and the higher the odds for a secondary reaction to be developing. It is too soon to tell, but we keep our eyes glued to the charts.

Is a secondary reaction developping?

The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17^th and November 13th, for the reasons given here and here.

Gold and Silver

SLV and GLD closed down. For the reasons I explained here, and more recently here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, SIL and GDX closed down. The primary trend is bearish, as was profusely explained here and here. Likewise, the secondary trend is bearish.

Here you have the figures for the SPY which represents the only market with a suggested open long position:

Data for January 8, 2014
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		06/24/2013	157.06
Bull market signaled		07/18/2013	168.87
Last close		01/08/2014	183.52
Current stop level: Secondary reaction low			165.48
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
8.68%	16.85%	2.05%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist