Dow Theory Update for January 28: Stocks rebound on modest volume

Precious metals take a pause.

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.

US stocks

The Transports, the Industrials and the SPY closed up. However, volume was muted, which is a bearish sign. Yesterday we drew your attention to the secondary trend which has turned bearish.

The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17^th and November 13th, for the reasons given here and here.

Gold and Silver

SLV and GLD closed down. For the reasons I explained here, and more recently here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, SIL and GDX closed up. The secondary trend is bullish, as explained here.

The primary trend for SIL and GDX remains, nonetheless, bearish, as was profusely explained here and here.

Here you have the figures for the SPY which represents the only market with a suggested open long position:

 

Data for January 28 , 2014
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		06/24/2013	157.06
Bull market signaled		07/18/2013	168.87
Last close		01/28/2014	179.07
Current stop level: Secondary reaction low			165.48
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
6.04%	14.01%	2.05%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist