Friday, January 10, 2014

Dow Theory Update for January 10: Transports make higher closing highs unconfirmed

Precious metals gather some strength, albeit bearish trend remain unchanged

If you are interested in reading the 2013 Dow Theory review please go here. You’ll see that we tended to be on the right side of the market most of the time.

US stocks

The SPY, and the Transports closed up. The Industrials closed down. The Transports bettered the 12/31/2013 closing highs. However, the SPY and the Industrials did not confirm. The longer the non-confirmation persists the higher the odds for a secondary reaction to develop.

The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th and November 13th, for the reasons given here and here.

Gold and Silver

SLV and GLD closed up. For the reasons I explained here, and more recently here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, SIL and GDX closed up. The primary trend is bearish, as was profusely explained here and here. Likewise, the secondary trend is bearish. Please mind that in spite of today’s strength, SIL and GDX remain below the red horizontal lines (the level at which a primary bear market was signaled), which is certainly non bullish.

SIL and GDX remain bellow the red horizontal lines: Primary bear market undisputed.

Here you have the figures for the SPY which represents the only market with a suggested open long position:


Data for January 10 , 2014


Bull market started
06/24/2013 157.06
Bull market signaled
07/18/2013 168.87
Last close
01/10/2014 184.14
Current stop level: Secondary reaction low


Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %

9.04% 17.24% 2.05%

The Dow Theorist

No comments:

Post a Comment