Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Dow Theory Update for January 7: Stocks well bid today but fail to make higher highs


And Trends remain unchanged

If you are interested in reading the 2013 Dow Theory review please go here. You’ll see that we tended to be on the right side of the market most of the time.

US stocks

The SPY, Industrials and the Transports closed up. However, the 12/31 closing highs remain unbroken.

The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th and November 13th, for the reasons given here and here.

Gold and Silver

SLV and GLD closed down. For the reasons I explained here, and more recently here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, SIL closed down, and GDX closed up. The primary trend is bearish, as was profusely explained here and here. Likewise, the secondary trend is bearish.

Here you have the figures for the SPY which represents the only market with a suggested open long position:

Data for January 7, 2014


Bull market started
Bull market signaled
Last close
Current stop level: Secondary reaction low

Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %

8.65% 16.82% 2.05%


The Dow Theorist

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