No change of trend in sight.
Tomorrow there will not be any post on this Dow Theory
blog. It will be a short day, and I will take it easy.
US stocks
The Industrials, Transports and
SPY closed up.
The primary trend was
reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th and November 13th, for the
reasons given here and here.
Today’s volume was lower than
yesterday’s. This is bearish, as higher prices were not met by stronger volume.
I’d label volume as neutral for the reasons given here.
Gold and Silver
SLV, and GLD closed down. For
the reasons I explained here,
and more recently here, I feel the
primary trend remains bearish. Here
I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The
primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here.
The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary
bearish trend), as explained here.
Here, I explained
that GLD and SLV set up for a primary bull market signal. However, a setup is
not the same as the “real thing," namely the primary bull market; thus,
many “setups” do not materialize and until the secondary reaction closing highs
are jointly broken up, no primary bull market will be signaled.
As to the gold and silver
miners ETFs, SIL and GDX closed up. The primary trend is bearish, as was
profusely explained here and here. Likewise, the
secondary trend is bearish.
All in all, the last shoe to
drop for the precious metals sector would be GLD and SLV reconfirming the
ongoing primary bear market. Until this happens, the secondary trend is
bullish, and this is the only “bullishness” to be found in this beleaguered
sector.
Here you have the figures for
the SPY which represents the only market with a suggested open long position:
| Data for November 27, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 06/24/2013 | 157.06 | |
| Bull market signaled | 07/18/2013 | 168.87 | |
| Last close | 11/27/2013 | 181.12 | |
| Current stop level: Secondary reaction low | 165.48 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 7.25% | 15.32% | 2.05% | |
Have a wonderful Thanksgiving Day.
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
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