Gold and silver remain caught in nowhere’s land
US stocks
The SPY and Industrials closed
up. The Transports closed down.
The primary trend was
reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th, for the reasons given here.
Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s,
which is bearish, as higher prices were not joined by stronger volume. I
consider volume to be bearish for the reasons given here and here. Furthermore, the trendline of volume of the last
few days is ominously bearish, as volume has steadily contracted as prices
advanced and has expanded as prices declined. Here you have an updated chart:
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Volume is bearish short term |
Gold and Silver
SLV and GLD closed up. For the
reasons I explained here, and more
recently here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed
the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend
was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The
secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish
trend), as explained here.
Here, I explained that GLD and SLV set up for a primary bull market signal.
However, a setup is not the same as the “real thing," namely the primary
bull market; thus, many “setups” do not materialize and until the secondary
reaction closing highs are jointly broken up, no primary bull market will be signaled.
SIL closed down, and GDX
closed up. SIL and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are in a primary bull market under
the Dow Theory, as explained here and here, even though they set up for a primary bear market
for the reasons given here.
The secondary trend is
bearish, which is tantamount to saying that there is an ongoing secondary reaction
against the primary bullish trend, for the reasons given here.
Here you have the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the
only markets with suggested open long positions.
Data for November 6, 2013 | |||
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
SPY | |||
Bull market started | 06/24/2013 | 157.06 | |
Bull market signaled | 07/18/2013 | 168.87 | |
Last close | 11/06/2013 | 177.17 | |
Current stop level: Secondary reaction low | 165.48 | ||
Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
4.92% | 12.80% | 2.05% |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
SIL | |||
Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 15.36 | |
Last close | 11/06/2013 | 12.59 | |
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
-18.03% | 18.89% | 45.04% | |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
GDX | |||
Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 28.7 | |
Last close | 11/06/2013 | 24.78 | |
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
-13.66% | 11.52% | 29.16% |
The Dow Theorist
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