Technically, nothing has changed.
If you have been following this Dow Theory blog for
some time, it may be dawning on you that investing along the primary trend, as
defined per Dow Theory, can be boring. Since June 29, when a Dow Theory primary
bull market signal was displayed for stocks, no action has been required from
the investor. Of course, for those restless minds hoping to get rich quickly
this is much too boring. On the other hand, for those mindful of the impact of
trading costs on performance, the Dow Theory (along the primary trend) is the
perfect balance between being a buy and hold investor (and being left with the
proverbial hot potato in your hand) and getting lost in the frenzy of short-term
trading. I am not disparaging short-term trading, but I am well aware that the
great majority of short term traders ends up with losses and psychologically burned
out. Anything that requires frequent trading should be left in the hands of
professionals.
Furthermore, as you are seeing on this Dow Theory blog
on a daily basis, trading sparsely does not mean that you can forget the
markets. You have to keep an eye on them daily,
but it is not the same to monitor the markets as to trade them.
Today the SPY, Transports and Industrials closed up
for the day. Technically, however, nothing was accomplished and hence the
primary trend continues up while the secondary trend continues down.
Today’s volume was higher than yesterday’s. Since it
was clearly an up day, we can derive a bullish implication from today’s volume.
Little by little seems that the short term pattern of volume is turning neutral
(roughly the same number of blue and red arrows). Here you have an updated
chart concerning volume.
 |
| Volume turning short term neutral |
As to gold, silver and their miners ETFs all of them
closed up today. However, technically nothing changed. Gold and silver still
caught in a secondary reaction and their ETFs still in no man’s land. The
primary trend in the PMs universe remains bullish.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for
today:
| Data for November 6, 2012 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 06/04/2012 | 128,1 | |
| Bull market signaled | 06/29/2012 | 136,1 | |
| Last close | 11/06/2012 | 142,96 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 128,1 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 5,04% | 11,60% | 6,25% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149,46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160,54 | |
| Last close | 11/06/2012 | 166,3 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 149,46 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 3,59% | 11,27% | 7,41% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25,63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28,92 | |
| Last close | 11/06/2012 | 31,01 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 25,63 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 7,23% | 20,99% | 12,84% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17,08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21,83 | |
| Last close | 11/06/2012 | 24,29 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 17,08 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 11,27% | 42,21% | 27,81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39,56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47,77 | |
| Last close | 11/06/2012 | 50,37 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 39,56 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 5,44% | 27,33% | 20,75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist.
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