Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Dow Theory Update for Nov 27: Markets down. No changes in trends




Volume for stocks very bearish

 Let’s get started with our Dow Theory analysis in this blog for today.


The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down again. Under Dow Theory nothing has changed. The primary trend and the secondary trend remain bearish.

Volume was up in a down day which has a bearish connotation. We have had six bearish volume days in a row. To add insult to injury, the last pivot high made two days ago was on notoriously lower volume than the previous pivot high made on 11/06/2012. This is also a bearish sign. Furthermore, the last two pivot lows as well as the last two pivot highs have displayed bearish volume patterns. The icing on the bearish cake, as you can see in the chart below, has been the declining trend of volume as the market rallied until a couple of days ago. Clearly, price action was negated by volume (see blue trend lines).

All in all, it is not frequent to see so much bearish information conveyed by different volume readings. While anything can happen in the next few days, volume seems to suggest that the primary bear market signal displayed on Nov 16 (Nov 11 according to Schannep) is to be heeded. More about the primary bear market signal here.
 
Here you have a chart displaying volume so that you can judge for yourself.

Six bearish volume days in a row. Volume at last four pivots bearish
 
Gold (GLD), Silver (SLV), GDX (gold miners’ ETF) and SIL (silver miners’ ETF) all of them closed down today. Technically, nothing has been achieved under the Dow Theory. The primary trend remains bullish whereas the secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 
Data for November 27, 2012





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bear market started
09/14/2012 147.24
Bear market signaled
11/16/2012 136.37
Last close
11/27/2012 140.33
Current stop level: Bull market high

147.24




Price chg since bear mkt signaled Tot decline since start bear mkt Max Pot Loss %




2.90% -4.69% -7.38%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149.46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160.54
Last close
11/27/2012 168.73
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

149.46




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




5.10% 12.89% 7.41%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25.63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28.92
Last close
11/27/2012 32.93
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

25.63




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




13.87% 28.48% 12.84%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17.08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21.83
Last close
11/27/2012 22.89
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

17.08




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




4.86% 34.02% 27.81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39.56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47.77
Last close
11/27/2012 47.48
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

39.56




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0.61% 20.02% 20.75%


Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist.

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