Dow Theory Update for Nov 21: Stocks up. No technical changes

Gold and silver still in primary trend

Let’s see what the Dow Theory has in store for us today. Today is going to be another short post on this blog. Now need to babble when there is scarcity of technical relevant events (at least as my eye can see).

The three stock indices I monitor, the Industrials, Transports and SPY closed up today. In spite of today’s advance, both the primary and secondary trend remain bearish.

Volume was dramatically bearish today. As you can see in the chart below, volume contracted as the SPY moved up. Thus, we had another bearish volume day. You can see in the chart that the red arrows hold the upper hand. Furthermore, you can see that the rally that started four days ago off the lows has experienced declining volume. Certainly, volume is not confirming the new rally. Moreover, to make volume even more bearish, the last three pivots had bearish volume. So, even though, volume doesn’t make trends but merely qualifies them, clearly  volume is giving us a bearish picture. At least short term (1-2 weeks ahead). 

Volume is not confirming the rally that started on 11/16/2012

Gold, silver and their respective ETFs (GDX, SIL) closed up today. Hitherto the entire precious metals' universe is dodging a primary bear market signal. All of them remain stuck in a secondary reaction, but the primary trend remains bullish.

After last week’s storm of Dow Theory relevant events, now we are enjoying the calm. Will it last very long? Market action will tell.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.

 

Data for November 21, 2012
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bear market started		09/14/2012	147.24
Bear market signaled		11/16/2012	136.37
Last close		11/21/2012	139.52
Current stop level: Bull market high			147.24
Price chg since bear mkt signaled	Tot decline since start bear mkt	Max Pot Loss %
2.31%	-5.24%	-7.38%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Last close		11/21/2012	167.57
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			149.46
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
4.38%	12.12%	7.41%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Last close		11/21/2012	32.31
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			25.63
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
11.72%	26.06%	12.84%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Last close		11/21/2012	22.92
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			17.08
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
4.99%	34.19%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Last close		11/21/2012	48.05
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			39.56
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
0.59%	21.46%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist.