Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Dow Theory Update for Nov 21: Stocks up. No technical changes



Gold and silver still in primary trend



Let’s see what the Dow Theory has in store for us today. Today is going to be another short post on this blog. Now need to babble when there is scarcity of technical relevant events (at least as my eye can see).

The three stock indices I monitor, the Industrials, Transports and SPY closed up today. In spite of today’s advance, both the primary and secondary trend remain bearish.

Volume was dramatically bearish today. As you can see in the chart below, volume contracted as the SPY moved up. Thus, we had another bearish volume day. You can see in the chart that the red arrows hold the upper hand. Furthermore, you can see that the rally that started four days ago off the lows has experienced declining volume. Certainly, volume is not confirming the new rally. Moreover, to make volume even more bearish, the last three pivots had bearish volume. So, even though, volume doesn’t make trends but merely qualifies them, clearly  volume is giving us a bearish picture. At least short term (1-2 weeks ahead). 

Volume is not confirming the rally that started on 11/16/2012

Gold, silver and their respective ETFs (GDX, SIL) closed up today. Hitherto the entire precious metals' universe is dodging a primary bear market signal. All of them remain stuck in a secondary reaction, but the primary trend remains bullish.

After last week’s storm of Dow Theory relevant events, now we are enjoying the calm. Will it last very long? Market action will tell.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.

 
Data for November 21, 2012





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY



SPY
Bear market started
09/14/2012 147.24
Bear market signaled
11/16/2012 136.37
Last close
11/21/2012 139.52
Current stop level: Bull market high

147.24




Price chg since bear mkt signaled    Tot decline since start bear mkt Max Pot Loss %




2.31% -5.24% -7.38%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149.46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160.54
Last close
11/21/2012 167.57
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

149.46




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




4.38% 12.12% 7.41%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25.63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28.92
Last close
11/21/2012 32.31
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

25.63




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




11.72% 26.06% 12.84%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17.08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21.83
Last close
11/21/2012 22.92
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

17.08




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




4.99% 34.19% 27.81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39.56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47.77
Last close
11/21/2012 48.05
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

39.56




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




0.59% 21.46% 20.75%


Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist.

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