Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Dow Theory Update for July 11: Primary bear market for Silver and Gold signaled on July 7

Gold and silver miners ETFs remain in primary bear market


The primary trend is bullish since November 21st, 2016, as explained here and here.

On July 3rd, 2017 the Transports broke up their March 1st, 2017 primary bull market closing highs. By doing so it confirmed the S&P 500 (breakout on May 10th) and the Industrials (breakout on June 1st). Accordingly, the primary bull market has been reconfirmed, as explained here


A primary bear market signal was flashed on July 7, 2017, as both SLV and GLD violated their respective secondary reaction closing lows. On July 3 I gave a detailed account of the technical situation and the impending danger of a primary bear market signal. You can read my analysis here

Here you have an updated chart:
Red arrows highlight the primary bear market signal

Followers of this Dow Theory blog know that I was skeptical as to the primary bull market for three reasons:

            1. The gold and silver miners ETFs remained all the time in a primary bear market 

            2- The primary trend when appraised using weekly bars was bearish

            3. GLD higher highs were unconfirmed by SLV. Wheras GLD broke up its primary bull market closing highs, SLV failed miserabily to do so (as explained here), which was ominously bearish


The primary trend is bearish, as was explained here and here.

The secondary trend is bullish as explained here

As was explained here, SIL and GDX have set up for a primary bull market signal. 

Here you have an updated chart. If the red horizontal lines were jointly violated, the primary bear market would be reconfirmed. 

Blue rectangles display the secondary reaction against the primary bear market. The red rectangles display the setup (pullback) for the primary bull market signal
The Dow Theorist

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