Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Dow Theory Update for October 11: Trends remain unchanged

Precious metals, and their miners remain in a bear market

I am writing before the close, so things might (very unlikely) change. 

US Stocks

The primary trend is bullish since November 21st, 2016, as explained here and here.

The primary trend was reconfirmed on July 3rd, 2017 as was explained here

The S&P 500, the Industrials and the Transports continue making higher confirmed highs. Thus, no secondary reaction in sight.

This trade could well last one year. The primary bull market signal was given on November, 21st, 2016, but the lows of the last primary bear market were made on November 2nd, 2016. Thus, the current bull swing got started on November 2nd, 2016. We are nearing mid October, if a secondary reaction got started right now, it’d take at the very least some 3 weeks to develop into a primary bear market (at least some 2 weeks for the secondary reaction, plus a subsequent rally of 2 additional days to set up for a primary bear market signal). Thus, even if the current bull market would abruptly stop here, the next primary bear market signal would probably be signaled in November. All in all, the current trade resembles a “typical” Dow Theory trade.

Here you have a chart, which displays price action for the last few months. 

Charts show the last secondary reaction (orange rectangles) and subsequent bullish swing


The primary trend was declared bearish on July 7th, 2017, as explained here and here
The secondary trend is bullish, as was profusely explained here.

The pullback that got started on September 8th, 2017 has unambiguously setup SLV and GLD for a primary bull market. An in-depth explanation here.

Of course, the pullback (orange rectangles on the right side of the charts), may likely end up in a violation of the last recorded primary bull market lows in which case the primary bear market would be reconfirmed.

If the blue horizontal lines were jointly broken up, a primary bull market would be signaled


The primary trend is bearish, as was explained here and here.

The secondary trend is bullish as explained here

For the same reasons given when analyzing SLV and GLD, no primary bull market has been signaled for SIL and GDX, as explained here. GDX did not better its secondary reaction closing highs by a hair, but it failed to do so. Furthermore, SIL is very far from its secondary reaction closing highs. All in all, no primary bull market signal in sight.

If the blue horizontal lines we jointly violated a primary bull market would be signaled


The Dow Theorist

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