Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Dow Theory Update for July 2: Deflationary forces in action




Precious metals and stocks closed down


Today is going to be a short Dow Theory commentary, as there are no relevant events.

Stocks

The SPY, Industrials, and Transports closed down.

The primary trend and secondary trend is bearish for the reasons explained here, and further explained here.

Today’s volume was higher than yesterday’s, which has a bearish connotation as volume expanded with declining prices. The overall pattern of volume is bearish for the reasons explained here. Here you have a chart that shows lots of red arrows (bearish). You can notice that the last six days (3 "up" and 3 "down) have been bearish volume days, which resulted in 6 red arrows. Volume contracts in up days and expands in down days. The updated chart below shows clearly that the trend of volume is clearly bearish: Ascending when prices decline and descending when prices rally.

I repeat myself ad nauseam: Volume is bearish.
 
Gold and Silver

SLV, and GLD closed down. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here; the secondary trend remains bearish too.

GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETFs closed down. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here; the secondary trend remains bearish too.

Eventually, one of these primary bear market re-confirmations will be proven false. In the meantime, it is better not to fight the trend, and wait for a primary bull market signal in order to make a commitment on the long side.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today, which contain no changes as we are flat.

 

Data for July 2, 2013






DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135.7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146.06
Exit June 21
06/21/2013 159.07
Current stop level: Sec reaction lows

161.27




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




8.91% 17.22%     None.








DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149.46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160.54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162.6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.39% 7.83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25.63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28.92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29.95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.28% 13.15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17.08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21.83
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/15/2012 21.87




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0.64% 26.99% 27.81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39.56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47.77
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low
12/05/2012 45.35




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-6.72% 12.64% 20.75%


Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

2 comments:

  1. Just wanted to comment to let you know that I appreciate your work. You present a very solid and valuable analysis of the markets. Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thx to you for following. I appreciate your feedback.

      Delete