Dow Theory Update for July 31: Stocks and precious metals meandering

Trends unchanged

Let’s analyze the markets under the prism of the Dow Theory. It is summer time, and, accordingly, this commentary will be short in the following days unless something really relevant is spotted on the charts. Any energy and free time left will be devoted to continuing the saga "Face off: Schannep versus "classical" Dow Theory", whose first part can be found here.

Stocks

The SPY and Transports closed up. The Industrials closed down.

The primary and secondary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

Today’s volume was higher than yesterday, which is bullish as higher prices were joined by expanding volume. The overall pattern of volume is turning neutral.

Gold and Silver

SLV closed up and GLD closed down. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETFs closed down

The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here.

The secondary trend for GDX and SIL is bullish, as explained here.

Here you have the figures for the SPY, which represents the only market with a suggested open long position.

 

Data for July 31, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		06/24/2013	157.06
Bull market signaled		07/18/2013	168.87
Last close		07/31/2013	168.71
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			157.06
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.09%	7.42%	7.52%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist