Monday, July 15, 2013

Dow Theory Update for July 15: Transports, once again, refuse to confirm higher highs



Primary bear market for stocks still in force until Transports confirm.


Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.

Stocks

The SPY, Industrials, and Transports closed up. As you can see on the chart below, the Transports have not bettered the last recorded highs (blue horizontal line) yet, and, accordingly, as explained here, no primary bull market has been signaled. The ellipse highlights the lack of confirmation.

Transports have hitherto not confirmed higher closing highs made by the Industrials (top) and SPY (bottom)

The primary trend is bearish for the reasons explained here, and further explained here.

The secondary trend is bullish, as has been explained here.

Friday’s volume was lower than Thursday’s, which was bearish, as Friday was an “up” day. Today’s volume was lower than Friday’s, which is also bearish. The overall pattern of volume is bearish, as:

1)     There are more red arrows (bearish volume days) than blue arrows (bullish volume days), as you can see from the chart below.

2)     Volume clearly recedes when prices stage a rally lasting some days (declining trend lines).

On the plus side, we have to note that three trading days ago, we had a bullish pivot (highlighted with an ellipse), as was explained here.

 
Volume is kind of bearish
Gold and Silver

SLV and GLD closed up. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here. However, the secondary trend remains bearish too.

GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETFs closed up. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here.

The secondary trend for GDX and SIL is bullish, as explained here.
 
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today, which contain no changes, as we are flat.


Data for July 15, 2013






DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135.7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146.06
Exit June 21
06/21/2013 159.07
Current stop level: Sec reaction lows

161.27




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




8.91% 17.22% None.








DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149.46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160.54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162.6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.39% 7.83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25.63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28.92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29.95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.28% 13.15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17.08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21.83
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/15/2012 21.87




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0.64% 26.99% 27.81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39.56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47.77
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low
12/05/2012 45.35




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-6.72% 12.64% 20.75%



Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

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