Dow Theory Update for July 15: Transports, once again, refuse to confirm higher highs

Primary bear market for stocks still in force until Transports confirm.

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.

Stocks

The SPY, Industrials, and Transports closed up. As you can see on the chart below, the Transports have not bettered the last recorded highs (blue horizontal line) yet, and, accordingly, as explained here, no primary bull market has been signaled. The ellipse highlights the lack of confirmation.

Transports have hitherto not confirmed higher closing highs made by the Industrials (top) and SPY (bottom)

The primary trend is bearish for the reasons explained here, and further explained here.

The secondary trend is bullish, as has been explained here.

Friday’s volume was lower than Thursday’s, which was bearish, as Friday was an “up” day. Today’s volume was lower than Friday’s, which is also bearish. The overall pattern of volume is bearish, as:

1)     There are more red arrows (bearish volume days) than blue arrows (bullish volume days), as you can see from the chart below.

2)     Volume clearly recedes when prices stage a rally lasting some days (declining trend lines).

On the plus side, we have to note that three trading days ago, we had a bullish pivot (highlighted with an ellipse), as was explained here.

 

Volume is kind of bearish

Gold and Silver

SLV and GLD closed up. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here. However, the secondary trend remains bearish too.

GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETFs closed up. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here.

The secondary trend for GDX and SIL is bullish, as explained here.

 

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today, which contain no changes, as we are flat.

Data for July 15, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.06
Exit June 21		06/21/2013	159.07
Current stop level: Sec reaction lows			161.27
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
8.91%	17.22%	None.
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.64%	26.99%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6.72%	12.64%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist