The primary & secondary trend for precious metals remains bearish
US INTEREST RATES
In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions.
TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it here
IEF is the iShares 7-10 years Treasury bond ETF. More about it here.
Thus, TLT tracks longer-term US bonds, whereas IEF tracks middle-term US bonds. A bull market in bonds entails lower interest rates. A bear market in bonds represents higher interest rates.
A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks and 1/3 retracement dogma.
The primary trend was signaled as bearish on 1/5/22, as I explained here.
Following a secondary (bullish) reaction against the bearish trend which was explained here. The setup for a primary bull market signal was completed on 7/8/22, as we explained in this post.
On 7/22/22, TLT and IEF broke topside their 7/5/22 secondary reaction highs (Step #2 in the table below), and, hence, a primary bull market was signaled. We cannot predict whether this new bull market will have long legs or not. What we know is that when we take several trades, a pattern of significant outperformance and drawdown reduction versus Buy and Hold emerges, as explained in these three posts:
A new bull market (at least in our time frame) seems to indicate that inflation will be tamed through a recession
Below you have the updated charts.
B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional interpretation demanding more than three weeks and 1/3 confirmed retracement to declare a secondary reaction.
trend was signaled as bearish on 9/28/21. A more aggressive and legitimate
interpretation would have signaled the bear market on 9/24/21. The explanations
The rally off the 6/14/22 closing lows lasted 26
trading days. Therefore, the time requirement for a secondary reaction
has been met. As to the extent requirement, if we require 1/3 confirmed
retracement of the previous bear swing, the retracement is around 20% for TLT
and 24% for IEF. On the other hand, if we just require that the rally exceed
the Volatility-Adjusted Minimum Movement (more explanations here),
the extent requirement would have been met. Up to each trader to make a
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