Monday, July 19, 2021

Dow Theory Update for July 19: No primary bear market in precious metals despite the current decline

 US Bonds and Stocks continue in primary bull market



I must be hopping on a plane, so I don’t have much time to blog. I am writing well before the close, so things might change. Readers, beware and do your own homework. 




My assessment of June 21st, 2021, remains in force.


Nonetheless, a setup for a primary bear market signal has been completed. Despite today’s market rout, no primary bear market signal has been signaled, as GLD remains well above its 6/29/2021 secondary reaction lows. If or when GLD pierces its 6/29 closing lows, a primary bear market would be signaled. As soon as I find time, I’ll produce an in-depth post explaining the entrails of the current setup. 




My assessment of June 21st, 2021 remains in force.



Unlike SLV and GLD, I discern no setup for a primary bear market signal. The rally off the last recorded secondary reaction lows (7/8 for SIL and 6/29 for GDX) has not met the minimum volatility-adjusted movement. So our stop-loss remains at the last recorded primary bear market lows of 3/30/21 (SIL) and 3/01/21 (GDX). 


As to the other markets I cover (US stocks and US bonds), there are no changes: We ride the bull. 

Manuel Blay

Co-Editor of

No comments:

Post a Comment