Secondary reaction in precious metals and their miners continues
US STOCKS
The primary trend as per Schannep’s
Dow Theory is bullish since March 1st,
2019 when both the Industrials and the S&P 500 closed at +19% from the
12/24/2018 bear market closing lows. The secondary trend is bullish too, as
explained here.
However, “capitulation”
suggested the opening of a partial commitment to stocks on the very day of the
market bottom (12/24/2018). More about that partial commitment here.
And more about “capitulation”
in general in the following links:
The primary trend as per
the “Rhea/Classical” Dow Theory is bullish since April 1st, 2019, as
was explained here.
As of this writing primary and secondary trends remain also unchanged
when we measure the trend according to the “Rhea/Classical” Dow Theory.
Both under
Schannep’s Dow Theory and the “classical” one, we have seen an episode of non
confirmation. On April 23rd, 2019 the S&P 500 bettered its
September 20th, 2018 primary bull market highs. Those were the highs
of the previous primary bull market. However, the Industrials and Transports
have refused to do so. The longer it takes for the Industrials and Transports
to confirm, the more suspect the current rally becomes.
The charts below
display the current situation. The red horizontal lines display the last
recorded primary bull market highs. As readers can see, just the S&P 500
(bottom chart) has hitherto managed to better such highs while the other two
indices are lagging behind.
![]() |
Blue arrow on the right side of the chart (bottom) displays the S&P 500 higher high unconfirmed |
GOLD AND SILVER
The primary trend is
bullish since 12/24/2018 as explained here. No changes. We finally got a secondary
reaction on 4/16/2019 when GLD violated its 03/07/2019 closing lows (and
confirmed SLV which had done so some days ago). More about the entrails of such
a secondary reaction here.
The charts below
display the current situation. The red oranges on the right side of the charts
display the ongoing secondary reaction. The small blue rectangles inside the
orange rectangles display a minor rally which did not reach the minimum threshold
of 3% in at least one index in order to set up SLV and GLD for a primary bear
market signal. Hence, since we did not get a setup the secondary reaction can
continue making lower lows without signaling a primary bear market.
![]() |
Secondary reaction which hitherto has not resulted in setup for primary bear market |
GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs
The primary trend is
bullish since 12/18/2018 as explained here. No changes.
The charts below
display the current situation. The red oranges on the right side of the charts
display the ongoing secondary reaction. The small blue rectangles inside the
orange rectangles display a minor rally which did not reach the minimum threshold
of 3% in at least one index in order to set up SLV and GLD for a primary bear
market signal. Hence, since we did not get a setup the secondary reaction can
continue making lower lows without signaling a primary bear market.
![]() |
Secondary reaction that hitherto has not resulted in setup for primary bear market |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
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