Trends for Gold, silver and their ETFs miners unchanged
US STOCKS
A primary bear market for US stocks was signaled on
August 14th, 2019 as explained here.
The Industrials and S&P 500 stopped their decline
on that very day. The Transports further declined until 08/27/2019. From these
dates all indeces have rallied making higher highs (since the primary bear
market lows) today. Hence, the Industrials and the S&P 500 have been rallying
for 12 trading days and the Transports has been rallying for 3 trading days. Thus,
the average time of this rally has been: 12+12+3 = 27/ 3 (indices) = 9 trading
days.
Furthermore, two indices (the Industrials and the
Transports) have been rallying more than 10 calendar days. Hence, the time requirement for the existence of a
secondary reaction according to Schannep’s Dow Theory has been met.
As to the extent requirement, all three indices have
rallied more than 3% and hence, given that the rally has been confirmed, the extent requirement has been met. The spreadsheet
below tells the whole story:
Hence, no sooner has the primary bear market been
signaled we are confronted with the first secondary reaction.
The charts below display the current situation. The
blue rectangles on the right side of the charts display the ongoing secondary
reaction.
 |
| Stocks under a new secondary (bullish) reaction against primary bear market |
As to the Rhea/Classical Dow Theory, the primary trend
remains bullish whereas we remain in the midst of a secondary (bearish) reaction
against that primary bullish trend. The Industrials made higher closing highs
bettering their secondary reaction highs unconfirmed by the Transports and,
hence, the primary bull market was not reconfirmed
and the secondary reaction was not extinguished.
On August 23rd, 2019 the Transports violated their secondary
reaction closing lows unconfirmed by the
Industrials, and accordingly no primary bear market has been signaled. So
the trend of the stocks when appraised under the Classical Dow Theory remains
bullish but inconclusive. Lack of confirmation by the Transports prevented both
the reconfirming of the primary bull market and the signaling of a primary bear
market.
The charts below display the current situation under
the “Rhea/Classical” Dow Theory
 |
| In spite of everything the primary bull market remains bullish as per the Rhea/Classical Dow Theory |
Next week I hope to write a post mortem assessment of the last primary bull market. Was it a
winner? By how much? Did capitulation improve our timing? More on these aspects
soon. Thereafter, a new chapter of the "capitulation" saga should follow.
GOLD AND SILVER
The primary trend is
bullish since 12/24/2018 as explained here. No changes. We
finally got a secondary reaction on 4/16/2019 when GLD violated its 03/07/2019
closing lows (and confirmed SLV which had done so some days ago). More about
the entrails of such a secondary reaction here and here.
On June 18th,
2019 GLD managed to break up above the closing highs of the primary bull market
unconfirmed by SLV. Hence, at that
time we could not declare the end of the secondary reaction. However, on 07/18/2019 SLV broke up above its
hitherto primary bull market highs, and hence the primary bull market has been
reconfirmed. From that date both GLD
and SLV have made further higher highs. A bull market.
GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs
The primary trend is
bullish since 12/18/2018 as explained here. No changes.
On June 17th, 2019
GDX managed to break up above the closing highs of the primary bull market
unconfirmed by SIL. Hence, we could
not declare the end of the secondary reaction. However, on 07/17/2019 SIL broke up above its hitherto recorded primary bull
market highs, and the primary bull market was reconfirmed. Since that date
both ETFs have been making higher highs. A bull market.
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
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