Trends for precious metals and their ETF miners unchanged
This
post has been amended on 08/16/2019. I thank Jack Schannep for spotting one
minor mistake I inadvertently made when determining the total decline of the
S&P 500 from the top made on 07/26/2019 to the day the primary bear market
was signalled (08/14/2019). I took the secondary reaction closing low (2844.74) instead of the close of the day the primary bear
market was signalled (08/14/2019) at 2840.6. What changes is the total
percentage decline from the top made at 3025.86 to the bottom which amounts to
-6.12% instead of -5.98% (this is the decline from the top to the secondary
reaction closing low). My sincere apologies, even though nothing has changed
technically: The primary bear market was accurately signalled.
US STOCKS
Yesterday, before the close, I wrote about the setup
for a primary bear market which had been completed on 08/08/2019. On 08/12/2019
the Transports violated its secondary reaction closing lows unconfirmed, and
hence, no signal was given. However, yesterday, on August 14th,
2019, both the S&P 500 and the Industrials confirmed the Transports by
jointly violating their respective secondary reaction closing lows of
08/05/2019.
Please mind that the primary bear market signal has
been signaled at -6.12% from the top made by the S&P 500 on 07/26/2019.
Here you have an updated chart.
 |
| Primary bear market signaled on August 14th, 2019 |
As you know, on average, primary bear market signals
have follow through. So, while there are no assurances as to much more decline
to follow, the odds favor more declines.
The average further decline amounts to ca. 12.5%, which implies that it
is more likely than not than further declines, are to be seen. Here is an
important post discussing further declines following a primary bear market
signal, and what to expect now.
As to the “Rhea/Classical” Dow Theory, nothing has
changed. There is still a primary bull market and a secondary reaction remains
in force. Neither the Industrials nor the Transports have violated the
05/31/2019 secondary reaction lows. Below a chart. The orange rectangles
display the ongoing secondary reaction. The red horizontal lines display the
lows of the secondary reaction which have to be jointly violated.
 |
| Primary bull market still in force (but with bad looks) as per the Classical Dow Theory |
GOLD AND SILVER
The primary trend is
bullish since 12/24/2018 as explained here. No changes. We
finally got a secondary reaction on 4/16/2019 when GLD violated its 03/07/2019
closing lows (and confirmed SLV which had done so some days ago). More about
the entrails of such a secondary reaction here and here.
On June 18th,
2019 GLD managed to break up above the closing highs of the primary bull market
unconfirmed by SLV. Hence, at that
time we could not declare the end of the secondary reaction. However, on 07/18/2019 SLV broke up above its
hitherto primary bull market highs, and hence the primary bull market has been
reconfirmed. From that date both GLD
and SLV have made further higher highs. A bull market.
GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs
The primary trend is
bullish since 12/18/2018 as explained here. No changes.
On June 17th,
2019 GDX managed to break up above the closing highs of the primary bull market
unconfirmed by SIL. Hence, we could
not declare the end of the secondary reaction. However, on 07/17/2019 SIL broke up above its hitherto recorded primary bull
market highs, and the primary bull market was reconfirmed. Since that date
both ETFs have been making higher highs. A bull market.
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
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