Trends for precious metals unchanged
First of all, I apologize for not having written since August 30. I still owe two posts: One concerning the analysis of the last primary bull market signal, and one concerning the next issue of the capitulation saga. Time has been in extremely short supply in the last few weeks. Other endeavors consume my time.
This post will merely update about the current market situation.
A primary bear market for US stocks was signaled on August 14th, 2019 as explained here.
A secondary reaction against the primary bear market was signaled on August 30, as explained here.
From that date, the Industrials, the Transports and the S&P 500 have rallied. No 3% pullback on at least one index has occurred, and hence the setup for the ordinary primary bull market signal has not been completed.
Nonetheless, if all three indices broke up above the last recorded primary bull market closing highs, a primary bull market would be signaled. For the time being, only the Transports have done so unconfirmed. This one unusual, albeit fully Dow Theory-compliant alternative primary bull market signal. As a reminder, there are three alternative ways under the Dow Theory to signal either a bull or bear market. More about such three alternative signals in this post:
Here you have an updated chart:
|In spite of the current rally, the primary trend remains bearish|
GOLD AND SILVER
The primary trend is bullish since 12/24/2018 as explained here. No changes. We finally got a secondary reaction on 4/16/2019 when GLD violated its 03/07/2019 closing lows (and confirmed SLV which had done so some days ago). More about the entrails of such a secondary reaction here and here.
On June 18th, 2019 GLD managed to break up above the closing highs of the primary bull market unconfirmed by SLV. Hence, at that time we could not declare the end of the secondary reaction. However, on 07/18/2019 SLV broke up above its hitherto primary bull market highs, and hence the primary bull market has been reconfirmed. From that date both GLD and SLV have made further higher highs. A bull market.
Gold and silver have declined for the last few days. However, the time requirement has not been met yet. Since the time requirement has not been met, I have not bothered with measuring the extent requirement, as we need both to declare the existence of a secondary reaction.
GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs
The primary trend is bullish since 12/18/2018 as explained here. No changes.
On June 17th, 2019 GDX managed to break up above the closing highs of the primary bull market unconfirmed by SIL. Hence, we could not declare the end of the secondary reaction. However, on 07/17/2019 SIL broke up above its hitherto recorded primary bull market highs, and the primary bull market was reconfirmed. Since that date both ETFs have been making higher highs. A bull market.
GDX and SIL have declined for the last few days. However, the time requirement has not been met yet. Since the time requirement has not been met, I have not bothered with measuring the extent requirement, as we need both to declare the existence of a secondary reaction.
The Dow Theorist