Dow Theory Update for June 2: Setup for a primary bear market signal for GDX and SIL completed on 6/1/23

 

I am writing before the close of 6/2/23. So readers, beware, things may change.

Executive Summary:

1. The primary trend for gold and silver is bullish, the secondary one is bearish, and the setup for a potential primary bear market signal was completed on 6/1/23. Soon I will write a post.

2. The primary trend for gold and silver ETF miners (GDX and SIL) is bullish, the secondary one is bearish, and the setup for a potential primary bear market signal was completed on 6/1/23.

General Remarks:

This post thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. 

GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs

A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. 

The primary trend was signaled as bullish on 4/4/23, as explained HERE.

As I explained HERE, the secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction).

The table below gives you an update on the current situation. 

  

Following the 5/25/23 (SIL) and 5/30/23 lows (GDX), a rally ensued until 6/1/23. Such a rally being >=2 trading days and exceeding the Volatility-Adjusted Minimum Movement (more about the VAMM HERE) on GDX completed the setup for a potential primary bear market signal. Inquisitive minds may notice that the VAMM has not been confirmed as SIL’s rally did not reach its VAMM (at 6.12% compared to a meager rally of only 4.98%). So, am I doing away with the Dow Theory principle of confirmation by merely demanding one index to rally more than the VAMM? I quote what I wrote in my post of November 10^th, 2012:

“Rhea wrote that the principle of confirmation becomes more important the longer the time frame. In other words, a primary bull market signal is meaningless without confirmation. The same basically applies to secondary reactions. However, when it comes to rallies (or small pullbacks in bear markets) which I would label “tertiary movement," some Dow Theorists are lukewarm with the principle of confirmation.

 

Here are two quotes from Hamilton (contained in Rhea’s master book “The Dow Theory”) which are illustrative:

 

“…Dow’s theory….stipulates for a confirmation of one average by the other. This constantly occurs at the inceptions of a primary movement, but is anything but consistently present when the market turns for a secondary swing”

“This illustration serves to emphasize the fact that while the two averages may vary in strength they will not materially vary in direction, especially in a major movement. Throughout all the years in which both averages have been kept this rule has proved entirely dependable. It is not only true of the major swings of the market but it is approximately true of the secondary reactions and rallies. It would not be true of the daily fluctuation (…)”

 

So from the two quotes, we can deduce that a rally may be considered in itself without requiring confirmation. While this is not carved in stone, and confirmation is always welcome, when we talk of a tertiary movement, we can be a little less demanding with the principle of confirmation. Please mind that one of the quotes even questions the inflexible application of the principle of confirmation to secondary reactions. As far as I know, contemporary Dow Theorists like Russell, and Schannep have not gone that far and require confirmation for secondary reactions. So do I. “

So, now we have two options:

A) A breakdown by GDX and SIL of their 5/25 and 5/30/23 secondary reaction lows (Step #2) would signal a primary bear market.

B) A breakup by GDX and SIL of their 4/13/23 highs (Step #1) would cancel the bear market setup, cancel the secondary reaction and confirm the primary bull market. 

The charts below update on the current situation. The brown rectangles highlight the secondary reaction. The blue rectangles (right) show the most recent rally that set up both ETFs for a potential primary bear market signal. The red horizontal lines display the secondary reaction lows whose penetration would signal a new bear market. The blue horizontal lines show the most recent highs whose breakup would confirm the still-existing primary bull market.

B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional interpretation demanding at least three weeks of movement to declare a secondary reaction.

The primary trend was signaled as bullish on 4/4/23, as explained HERE.

The current pullback being >=15 trading days meets the time required for a secondary reaction. More details HERE.

In this specific instance, the trend appraisal using the “long-term” version of the Dow Theory yields the same results as the “short-term” one. So, the setup for a potential primary bear market signal has been completed. Please check the table, charts and explanation given above.

Therefore, the primary trend is bullish, and the secondary trend is bearish.

Gold and Silver:

While not the object of this post, the primary trend for GLD and SLV is bullish, as explained HERE.

The table below gives a recap of the primary trend across the precious metals spectrum (which may change soon if the setup for a primary bear market materializes): 

 

 Sincerely,

Manuel Blay

Editor of thedowtheory.com